HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Th GEFS are close to this which is probably why they are slightly wetter than 18z....1.5"+ for all of northern VA/DCA They have not backed down one bit. Very consistent even going back to when the operational run were terrible. Kinda impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 They're getting big rates though...models have 2" of QPF in Northern VA. thanks...and welcome to our forum...invite all your friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 2013022600z GFS and GFS ENS MOS KIAD 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 ::: :: ::: : GFSX 45| 39 58| 34 53| 31 47| 30 46| 29 41| 24 41| 27 45 ENSM 41| 32 51| 34 53| 31 46| 27 42| 23 43| 25 49| 29 48 MIN 39| 31 47| 33 51| 30 45| 23 39| 19 39| 22 44| 26 45 MAX 42| 32 53| 36 54| 33 48| 30 45| 26 48| 30 52| 34 52 GFSX = GFS Extended MOS, ENSM = GFS Ensemble Mean,MIN = Coolest GFS Ensemble member forecast, MAX = Warmest GFS Ensemble member forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 They're getting big rates though...models have 2" of QPF in Northern VA. everyone is on board with that, for sure its figuring out how expansive they will get at this point, rates that would guarantee snow are limited to a relatively small area hopefully, the precip shield will expand or it will become a regional blood bath in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 what did the GEFS look like 84 hours out for Feb 8th for you...were they syncing yet?....I am a bit impressed at this point Yeah it began to trend wetter and wetter from here on out. 6 days prior to the storm, not a single member had a hit..lol. Someone is going to get demolished. Naturally you favor the high spots, but this may park a firehose into the DC area and if that happens..then it's a big paste bomb. There is a ton of moisture with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 They have not backed down one bit. Very consistent even going back to when the operational run were terrible. Kinda impressive. I was thinking the same thing. Amazing how consistent they've remained, even when the 18Z GFS went to pot on Friday. That's why it was possible to breathe a bit easier despite the GFS (deterministic) doing that later Friday and Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GGEM has a really strong mid-level warm nose between 90-102 hours near the I-95 belt...another reason its probably showing rain on the ptype maps...I really wouldn't worry about such a detail though until you are at least 48-60 hours out. Ptype details at this stage take a back seat to just figuring out where the key synoptic features will set up. It's trending awfully deep for AR/TN at 72hr. Generally not where those of us in NOVA want to see 4mb/12hr drops ahead of our hoped for snow. Then again, the "old GGEM" (pre 2/14) had an annoying habit of occasionally "getting the right idea" early on, say 120 - 144 hours out, only to latch on to the trend and over do it during the 120hr - 72hr before event timeframe. Hence, per your admonishment, probably not worth getting worked up about, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yep, gefs just adds to the optimism and reinforces the nail biter aspect. Turn the clock back 3 weeks or so and nobody would be going nutz on ptype. Were really fighting a good fight to beat the odds. even if we are lucky enough to get flushed with the best day/night timing, there will still be issues.....But I think it does need to be kept in mind that it is only March 6th....this isn't March 20th, 1958 or March 29th, 1942 or even March 15th, 1999.....March 6th is a workable date.....It is the combination of air mass and date....I think people should be a little less concerned about stickage than they are....unless they are all in for some HECS....in which case, I cant help them...they should be in assisted living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 everyone is on board with that, for sure its figuring out how expansive they will get at this point, rates that would guarantee snow are limited to a relatively small area hopefully, the precip shield will expand or it will become a regional blood bath in here Other than the 18Z run, the GFS has pretty consistently shown these narrow bands of max precip. In a marginal temperature situation, though, even getting under heavy rates still doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. Liquid equivalents at DCA for 3/58 and 3/62 were high- 3.75" in 3/58 and 1.33" in 3/62- but we all know the results. I think it's safest right now to guess that we will have an unfriendly gradient set up over this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FTFY (and for mobile users) 0Z Ensemble mean 72-hr precip at hr. 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Other than the 18Z run, the GFS has pretty consistently shown these narrow bands of max precip. In a marginal temperature situation, though, even getting under heavy rates still doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. Liquid equivalents at DCA for 3/58 and 3/62 were high- 3.75" in 3/58 and 1.33" in 3/62- but we all know the results. I think it's safest right now to guess that we will have an unfriendly gradient set up over this subforum. we could use the word gradient in every post and people will still ignore it I am not as worried about stickage as some....if say we do get 1" QPF, it isn't going to be spread evenly over 24 hours...there will be periods of heavy rates....snow growth matters a lot too....big pasty dendrites will accumulate in 10 seconds if it is <35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 we could use the word gradient in every post and people will still ignore it I am not as worried about stickage as some....if say we do get 1" QPF, it isn't going to be spread evenly over 24 hours...there will be periods of heavy rates....snow growth matters a lot too....big pasty dendrites will accumulate in 10 seconds if it is <35 Correct. 90hr gfs had 1"+ in a 6 hr period. Heavy wet snow rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FTFY (and for mobile users) 0Z Ensemble mean 72-hr precip at hr. 108Thanks for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 we could use the word gradient in every post and people will still ignore it I am not as worried about stickage as some....if say we do get 1" QPF, it isn't going to be spread evenly over 24 hours...there will be periods of heavy rates....snow growth matters a lot too....big pasty dendrites will accumulate in 10 seconds if it is <35 I agree with you that it's not late March, so the lowlands can still accumulate well. But, I still think elevation will make a world of difference in this storm. Why stop at Tenleytown though? If it really looks like an elevation event, you could easily head to like Clarksburg. I think mattfm (?) metro'd to Rockville or something like that during the 12/5/09 elevation-dependent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People are worrying about things that should be brought up within 24 hours not 84 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People are worrying about things that should be brought up within 24 hours not 84 hours away. 2 years in a row of 3" seasonal totals will do that to ya' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z op GFS close-up clown map FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People are worrying about things that should be brought up within 24 hours not 84 hours away. For those of us who live north and west of Baltimore it is much easier to achieve a north trend as oppossed to relying on a west trend from a coastal. This is why I like where we sit now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 MitchNick is being a weenie for once christ...basically the exact same track as 18z just the QPF is a little different. Stop being a model hugger christ. I like you but darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People are worrying about things that should be brought up within 24 hours not 84 hours away. not really....we have enough guidance now to give us an idea of what the nature of the storm will be...we dont need fine details to discuss elevation and rates and temps....these subjects can be broached and discussed before we have settled on a solution..I realize that since you are fringed you'd probably rather close your eyes and hope until we are 24 hours away... This "we will work out the details later" mentality is silly....these thingss can be discussed generally without parsing soundings at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z op GFS close-up clown map FWIW. That seems significantly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z op GFS close-up clown map FWIW. we have enough weenies posting clown maps...you're a met...feel free to add something of value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 People are worrying about things that should be brought up within 24 hours not 84 hours away. It's legit to worry about temp profiles that need a lot of help to support accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 MitchNick is being a weenie for once christ...basically the exact same track as 18z just the QPF is a little different. Stop being a model hugger christ. I like you but darn OK, so I can interpret models if I think they mean snow for us but not interpret models if I think they mean rain I missed that one in the forum rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 we have enough weenies posting clown maps...you're a met...feel free to add something of value calling out a met in a non banter thread maybe you should add something...., It really looks like temps for the SE VA crowd are just too marginal right now, I really like the just north of Richmond as of right now for the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT says the GGEM is a major snow hit from Richmond to DC. Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL at barking at mets for not providing content after handwringing about temps four days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's legit to worry about temp profiles that need a lot of help to support accumulating snow. Yeah but the track is going to determine that..if we get in to the CCB then shutup about temp profiles...its a big IF but its also a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.