Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly, hence my "hmm.." lol, maybe I'm not seeing something. Kinda figured that. I thought maybe you saw something he mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Exactly, hence my "hmm.." lol, maybe I'm not seeing something. yeah, the number next to the word "proof" on the bottle in his hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the low on the GGEM is tracking through central NC? Isn't that much further south than 12Z? Not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah, the number next to the word "proof" on the bottle in his hand Ha!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not quite. That wasn't the same map I saw a few posts up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 In the past, most folks have enjoyed seeing a close-up map when a potential big storm is looming...cut me some slack Jack. I liked it.. please provide for each and every run from now till the storm. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Perhaps this is an argument worth NOT having but I still believe the "phasing scenario" would have been a joke, overall. It was a no-win IMO with that setup and it was no coincidence that a suppressed and rainy scenario was being modeled continuously by the data when the Great Lakes "pivoter" was on the table (I know there were snowy solutions too but there were a lot more bad). This morphed into a much more reasonable and predictable solution and the kind that can bring a Mid Atlantic pasting. The "adding cold air" argument with the phasing scenario is wrong because the northern wave and southern wave would have resisted each other longer (with the Michigan wave kicking the southern wave further out before the partial phase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 per tonight's Euro, tomorrow morning at 7AM BWI's 850 temp is -12C, yet the best we can muster is a -2C after more than 12 hours of darkness no wonder we can't get snow around here; that is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Perhaps this an argument worth NOT having but I still believe the "phasing scenario" would have been a joke, overall. It was a no-win IMO with that setup and it was no coincidence that a suppressed and rainy scenario was being modeled continuously by the data when the Great Lakes "pivoter" was on the table (I know there were snowy solutions too but there were a lot more bad). This morphed into a much more reasonable and predictable solution and the kind that can bring a Mid Atlantic pasting. The "adding cold air" argument with the phasing scenario is wrong because the northern wave and southern wave would have resisted each other longer (with the Michigan wave kicking the southern wave further out before the partial phase). thanks for the info HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can see this as where DCA comes in with 3-4", rest of the area 5,6,7,8.Lay down just 1 " before 9am and moderate snow will accumulate even above freezing. Areas that really have not seen too much sun yet would get a real boost in accums. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those of us who live north and west of Baltimore it is much easier to achieve a north trend as oppossed to relying on a west trend from a coastal. This is why I like where we sit now. I feel good where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Anyone taking euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Anyone taking euro pbp? everyone wanted me to do it but I've decided on something more mundane the rest of the evening and have decided to pick up trash along the fast lane of the Baltimore Beltway be back in a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Perhaps this is an argument worth NOT having but I still believe the "phasing scenario" would have been a joke, overall. It was a no-win IMO with that setup and it was no coincidence that a suppressed and rainy scenario was being modeled continuously by the data when the Great Lakes "pivoter" was on the table (I know there were snowy solutions too but there were a lot more bad). This morphed into a much more reasonable and predictable solution and the kind that can bring a Mid Atlantic pasting. The "adding cold air" argument with the phasing scenario is wrong because the northern wave and southern wave would have resisted each other longer (with the Michigan wave kicking the southern wave further out before the partial phase). No arguments here. Interesting thoughts and observations, and interesting how the whole scenario moved away from the phasing idea to the evolution now depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT says the GGEM is a major snow hit from Richmond to DC. Hmm..could be the precip might show rain because the surface is 34 but if its ripping that's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it's to 66 Does it look similar to 00z so far in its h5 evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 will you be happy with something other than a shutout that may not be a 12" snowstorm? I'm really not expecting anything out of this I'm just practicing for next year's NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I liked it.. please provide for each and every run from now till the storm. Thanks in advance. Yeah I like the maps, too. Even if they're probably a bit overdone in our area. Honestly, even though it's a totally different setup, this storm kind of feels like the Jan 2011 commutageddon storm down here where we were modeled to get some good snow but got screwed in the end. I think we'll do a little better on this one but overall I don't have a great feeling about it. In the end it's just snow so it's no big deal and I hope somebody gets crushed just because everyone on this forum is as "due" as anyone else is (although, arguably, our area is more "due" for a truly historic storm than the DCA area solely because of 09-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thanks for the info HM No problem. While you guys are getting a wet snow bomb, I'm worried about the shoreline up this way. Things aren't exactly "back to normal" post-Sandy and the 00z solutions tonight are getting alarming. No arguments here. Interesting thoughts and observations, and interesting how the whole scenario moved away from the phasing idea to the evolution now depicted. The coolest thing about this is how it became "classic" for you guys. Now you have a simple "bowling ball" crashing into the effects of a strong -NAO block. If the Mid Atlantic is going to get hit hard, this is it. The 50-50 low and Quebec Anticyclone are going NO WHERE and this will prevent a rapid shift north (it will shift of course but not to the point where all of a sudden VA-MD aren't seeing shiat). Also, the strong blocking / upper low will make for a sharp deformation zone. Along the edge of the precipitation, there could be a secondary enhancement with slightly better snow growth. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days (usually some enhancement 800-600mb frontogenesis/cooler temps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah I like the maps, too. Even if they're probably a bit overdone in our area. Honestly, even though it's a totally different setup, this storm kind of feels like the Jan 2011 commutageddon storm down here where we were modeled to get some good snow but got screwed in the end. I think we'll do a little better on this one but overall I don't have a great feeling about it. In the end it's just snow so it's no big deal and I hope somebody gets crushed just because everyone on this forum is as "due" as anyone else is (although, arguably, our area is more "due" for a truly historic storm than the DCA area solely because of 09-10). This is a different bird-- slower event and better h5 track. GFS is likely overdone, but it's a ton colder. moved away from the 45-50 tuesday and we don't break 40, maybe even 35. It's sleeting by 7 and a very wet snow by 1 AM. Very isolthermal, but I'd take it. more like 7-1 ratio, so cut a third off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 further south than we want it WE also are part of this region down here in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 further south than we want it like I said earlier today.....CHO is where I'd go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 further south than we want it Wait for it..........BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't represent the entire MD/DC/VA area....sorry... Inch of ice to you, buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 WE also are part of this region down here in VA. Yeah. Sometimes a forum for the immediate dc/burbs is understandable. Not sure how it would work though. There are a lot of people in a small geographic region. WE usually means DC and the surrounding burbs. Fair? Not really. Reality? unfortunately, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 H5 over Wilmington at 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we get any information about the euro besides boom, next, ugly, etc? How far south is it? How much qpf for DC? That, and how similar to the 12Z run is it...significant differences or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 eh....no....nobody from DC north is going to be too happy with this run...on to tomorrow How bleak are the numbers this run? This is definitely more of a concern than it coming too north for you, I think. This is a pretty ridiculous blocking setup...nothing like 2009-2011 of course....but still ridiculous. Usually these events don't come at the point when the block is coming west and then south. They come once that period is over and it is lifting out as the coastal low takes over as the new "low anomaly" on the height charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Typical timeframe when all models diverge. Onto tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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