North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM again has the Low pressure moving into southern VA and sits over Richmond for hours. Most of us go to rain. I-81 special. I assume people will be along to get all over Snowdude for posting the GGEM and mentioning it is showing rain, right? Or is that just mitch who gets that treatment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM again has the Low pressure moving into southern VA and sits over Richmond for hours. Most of us go to rain. I-81 special. I'd rather see that than have it go south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb. this is what makes me chuckle I've been all over the NAM and SREFs how good they look and most are just blowing them off then I analyze what I believe the GFS is showing imby and north and I'm a Deb (and what I said is a lot closer to being accurate based on whichever clown map you choose than being wrong) it's silly; I want snow as much as anyone else, but the models show what they show and I have nothing to do with that the difficulty with the MAR snow is that qpf, regardless of decent 850's, doesn't mean diddly if the bl doesn't cooperate AND if the precip doesn't fall hard enough if bl are a prob, but I know you know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Let's wait and see what the Euro shows. We are still 8-10" on this run of the GFS. And this snow map looks much more like 12z Euro but just a little north. Maybe GFS is still playing catch up. Crossing my fingers but going to bed. It will be a long few days. Maybe-- that snow map was overdown done here, at least in LYH based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains). I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone. I believe for Feb. 5-6, 2010 the GFS had a pretty good area of 2-3" QPF, and PD-II came close to that several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HECS to me is 18"+, term is way overused by some here. 10" march snow @ dca will be first page of the history books as long as you and me are alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HECS to me is 18"+, term is way overused by some here.Maybe you should learn climo then. People thinking DC is a lock for 8" are calling for like a top 5 March event all time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I assume people will be along to get all over Snowdude for posting the GGEM and mentioning it is showing rain, right? Or is that just mitch who gets that treatment? Mitch was upset that BWI wasn't getting as much precip as DC and south. All I'm doing is analyzing a model. Isn't that why we're here? I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM again has the Low pressure moving into southern VA and sits over Richmond for hours. Most of us go to rain. I-81 special. Starts snowing here at 84 and still snowing at 108. Pretty sure ggem dumps like 20" here. It's always too warm this far out so not worried too much about it's precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Mitch was upset that BWI wasn't getting as much precip as DC and south. All I'm doing is analyzing a model. Isn't that why we're here? I'm not complaining. I know you are not. I was pointing out that what happened to mitch was crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I still think it will track further north than it has already shifted....not just the precip shield but the storm track...If the ULL can get 50 mi north when it crosses eastern TN and get into that nook in SW VA, It will turn northeast earlier....that is the moneyshot spot for an ULL..... I'm encouraged by the 0z run because even though the ULL is a little weaker than 18z it doesnt get shoved southeast as easily once it reaches the coast...these nuances aren't going to be worked out for another 36+ hours, but the Euro is going to be more valuable at this point with those details assuming all other things are similar.. For now I like a GFS/GEFS/Euro blend with a lean toward the latter 2....at some point using an ensemble mean loses value, but it totally tipped us off when the GFS was out to lunch earlier.... I think you are exactly right. I could be totally out of my mind here, but I think if you are on the southern edge of any snow bullseye right now you'd better not celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Maybe you should learn climo then. People thinking DC is a lock for 8" are calling for like a top 5 March event all time, Good point. And to carry that further, 18"-plus would be at least the #2 storm behind PD-I for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Maybe you should learn climo then. People thinking DC is a lock for 8" are calling for like a top 5 March event all time, That really puts things in perspective. I don't see how anybody thinks they are a lock for anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 10" march snow @ dca will be first page of the history books as long as you and me are alive. BWI is what matters to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The higher elevations are demolished. Anybody above 1K...congrats on a condo collapser. I hope 850 feet is enough for 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this is what makes me chuckle I've been all over the NAM and SREFs how good they look and most are just blowing them off then I analyze what I believe the GFS is showing imby and north and I'm a Deb (andloop what I said is a lot closer to being accurate based on whichever clown map you choose than being wrong) it's silly; I want snow as much as anyone else, but the models show what they show and I have nothing to do with that the difficulty with the MAR snow is that qpf, regardless of decent 850's, doesn't mean diddly if the bl doesn't cooperate AND if the precip doesn't fall hard enough if bl are a prob, but I know you know that Tbh- I read your posts differently than many. You've been doing this longer than me and I've been around 7 years or so. I know exactly where your coming from and I see the same things. It's just too early to worry about rates and totals. This is likely a big precip event. Can hardly argue otherwise for now. All the cities are in the crosshairs ar this point. We can all still get fooked too. But were all close enough to not sweat the details yet. If this gfs run came 3 days ago we would all be doing cartwheels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 all this talk of 2010 analogs coincidentally, I think it's been that long since I can recall seeing precip in Maine moving southwest like tonight http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ggem has crazy qpf but its mostly rain however it's often a bit warm on its surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS at 84 has a 1002 L near Norfolk in extreme SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am waxing my Jebman shovels. Gonna put every plow out of work in eastern PW County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GGEM has a really strong mid-level warm nose between 90-102 hours near the I-95 belt...another reason its probably showing rain on the ptype maps...I really wouldn't worry about such a detail though until you are at least 48-60 hours out. Ptype details at this stage take a back seat to just figuring out where the key synoptic features will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ggem has crazy qpf but its mostly rain however it's often a bit warm on its surface temps Do any of the GGEM maps that are available now have T85 plotted? Their 500-1000 thickness is often goofy, probably due to their tendency to overstate the lowest 100mb mean temp (anecdotal/personal observation), but their T85 numbers usually look good. I've yet to find them plotted on a site earlier than 12:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know you're not but a lot of people see 1" on the model and assume that's great. But if it comes over 24 hours its probably not. Now is not the time to punt or anything but its waaaaay premature to be declaring victory as well. Absolutely. It's gonna take big rates to get good snows in the lower elevations. This isn't 28F in January when you can squeeze out every drop of moisture as dendrites no matter what the rates are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS at 84 has a 1002 L near Norfolk in extreme SE VA 96 it drifts east at 1000 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nobody cares....no offense meant... Why? It's a legitimate model. And with the upgrades that have been implemented recently, it may also be close to the Euro in terms of accuracy (time will tell with that one). I think everyone here should care what a possible major model shows from run-to-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am waxing my Jebman shovels. Gonna put every plow out of work in eastern PW County. Now it must be serious if the Jebman has come out. I think you'll need to dust the cobwebs off those shovels first after so little use the last two lame years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We don't need to go back to 1962 or 1958 to see other examples of high-precip, marginal temperature March events, and the gradients associated with them. 3/76 was a big gradient between DCA and IAD, and 3/14-15/99 was another example- snowed but didn't stick much at all near DCA while IAD picked up more than 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Absolutely. It's gonna take big rates to get good snows in the lower elevations. This isn't 28F in January when you can squeeze out every drop of moisture as dendrites no matter what the rates are. They're getting big rates though...models have 2" of QPF in Northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Th GEFS are close to this which is probably why they are slightly wetter than 18z....1.5"+ for all of northern VA/DCA Yep, gefs just adds to the optimism and reinforces the nail biter aspect. Turn the clock back 3 weeks or so and nobody would be going nutz on ptype. Were really fighting a good fight to beat the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Do any of the GGEM maps that are available now have T85 plotted? Their 500-1000 thickness is often goofy, probably due to their tendency to overstate the lowest 100mb mean temp (anecdotal/personal observation), but their T85 numbers usually look good. I've yet to find them plotted on a site earlier than 12:30am Nope have to wait for ewall to update. Looking at the surface precip plots seems the ggem stalls the low too far west and so it floods warm air in on the east wind then once that happens the low is dying and never really re cools the profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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