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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope


stormtracker

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I don't think we disagree...I guess my point is to not worry too hard about specifics this far out since things can change in a hurry when it's marginal. I understand fully how tough it is to get a HECS there. You still have some issues to work out at H5 over New England and energy diving into this trough from the Plains too...nevermind where the deformation band sets up.

I know you're not but a lot of people see 1" on the model and assume that's great. But if it comes over 24 hours its probably not. Now is not the time to punt or anything but its waaaaay premature to be declaring victory as well.

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Yeah I really can't see DC getting only 2 inches with this storm track and amount of precip. That snowfall map only shows 2-4 (dark green)for 95 not 4-8, but I don't believe that. 

That's what I was wondering, to my eye it "only" shows ~2-4" with an extreme gradient just to the west into the higher totals.  As I said before, maybe pointless to parse those details on that kind of map now, but I did also wonder.  How much of BL temperatures are taken into account on those, and what ratios are typically used?

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Can I STFU to everyone in DC north area? Serious--

 

You guys had 3 KU's in 09-10. Yeah, it's sucked balls since then. So what-- it's snow. We had a couple decent events down my way since then, but nothing to make up for those 10 days. I had 36 inches TOTAL that winter. 

 

Grow up-- I'm sitting on the fringe-- w/luck I can see 8 inches, 4-5 more likely due to ratio and crap. 

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the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains).

 

I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone.

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I am. We only get HECS around here. HECS are easy. Its the 3-6, 4-8 storms that we can never get

Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha

Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb.

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the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains).

I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone.

all bets are off if theres a significant phase with northern stream.
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Wait until the NAM gets a hold of this lol....If the GFS is showing 2-3" of QPF imagine the NAM. 

 

Bit OT but right now I am 75% sure I will make a roadtrip for this storm since it will be the last chance to see snow most likely this year.. What is a good spot in NW VA that has some elevation and does well usually? 

Sounds like you'll be hitching the ole pop-up trailer to the back of the Prius and setting up camp on the windward side of Beacon Hill! You can find it via RadarScope; it's the annoying, intransient 20dbz anomaly about 10nm WNW, and a lofty 250' above, LWX.

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Can I STFU to everyone in DC north area? Serious--

 

You guys had 3 KU's in 09-10. Yeah, it's sucked balls since then. So what-- it's snow. We had a couple decent events down my way since then, but nothing to make up for those 10 days. I had 36 inches TOTAL that winter. 

 

Grow up-- I'm sitting on the fringe-- w/luck I can see 8 inches, 4-5 more likely due to ratio and crap. 

Let's wait and see what the Euro shows.  We are still 8-10" on this run of the GFS.  And this snow map looks much more like 12z Euro but just a little north.  Maybe GFS is still playing catch up.  Crossing my fingers but going to bed.  It will be a long few days.

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Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha

Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb.

 

HECS to me is 18"+, term is way overused by some here.

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I still think it will track further north than it has already shifted....not just the precip shield but the storm track...If the ULL can get 50 mi north when it crosses eastern TN and get into that nook in SW VA, It will turn northeast earlier....that is the moneyshot spot for an ULL.....

 

I'm encouraged by the 0z run because even though the ULL is a little weaker than 18z it doesnt get shoved southeast as easily once it reaches the coast...these nuances aren't going to be worked out for another 36+ hours, but the Euro is going to be more valuable at this point with those details assuming all other things are similar..

 

For now I like a GFS/GEFS/Euro blend with a lean toward the latter 2....at some point using an ensemble mean loses value, but it totally tipped us off when the GFS was out to lunch earlier....

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GGEM again has the Low pressure moving into southern VA and sits over Richmond for hours. Most of us go to rain. I-81 special.

 

I assume people will be along to get all over Snowdude for posting the GGEM and mentioning it is showing rain, right? Or is that just mitch who gets that treatment?

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Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha

Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb.

this is what makes me chuckle

I've been all over the NAM and SREFs how good they look and most are just blowing them off

then I analyze what I believe the GFS is showing imby and north and I'm a Deb (and what I said is a lot closer to being accurate based on whichever clown map you choose than being wrong)

it's silly; I want snow as much as anyone else, but the models show what they show and I have nothing to do with that

the difficulty with the MAR snow is that qpf, regardless of decent 850's, doesn't mean diddly if the bl doesn't cooperate AND if the precip doesn't fall hard enough if bl are a prob, but I know you know that

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Let's wait and see what the Euro shows.  We are still 8-10" on this run of the GFS.  And this snow map looks much more like 12z Euro but just a little north.  Maybe GFS is still playing catch up.  Crossing my fingers but going to bed.  It will be a long few days.

 

Maybe-- that snow map was overdown done here, at least in LYH based on soundings. 

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the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains).

 

I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone.

I believe for Feb. 5-6, 2010 the GFS had a pretty good area of 2-3" QPF, and PD-II came close to that several days out.

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