WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:13 AM, mitchnick said: the problem is not me I am analyzing a model run I am the messenger I am not worrying, I am not predicting, I am not whining, I am discussing a wx model, including predicted temps if you folks can't handle that, not my problem Mitch at 90 hours you appear to be in some pretty good precip. Your 850 temps are around -5. You have ne winds. There's no way the surface is more than 34 or so. I think you'd be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:16 AM, Amped said: ScreenShot071.jpg Here you go 4-8" will about do it for I95 on this run. That looks like a fair bit less than 4-8" along the I-95 corridor to my eyes, more like 2-4" with a sharp gradient before going into the much higher values to the west/northwest. Not that it really matters to parse such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this run is better than the 00z GFS from last night and its better than the .13 we usually get when we track a snowstorm for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:20 AM, mitchnick said: thanks for proving my point I agree. Now please shutup about it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:10 AM, Highzenberg said: Wait until the NAM gets a hold of this lol....If the GFS is showing 2-3" of QPF imagine the NAM. Bit OT but right now I am 75% sure I will make a roadtrip for this storm since it will be the last chance to see snow most likely this year.. What is a good spot in NW VA that has some elevation and does well usually? Try 522 S of Front Royal. Easy hwy access and 2000+ elevation crossing Chester's Gap. In marginal temp events the 8 mile drive from Front Royal feels like you've driven to another world. Dec 5 2009 there was about 4 sloppy inches in town and I drove up to Chester's Gap where the snow was mid-shin deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah I really can't see DC getting only 2 inches with this storm track and amount of precip. That snowfall map only shows 2-4 (dark green)for 95 not 4-8, but I don't believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:24 AM, snowdude said: Yeah I really can't see DC getting only 2 inches with this storm track and amount of precip. That snowfall map only shows 2-4 (dark green)for 95 not 4-8, but I don't believe that. They're called clown maps for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:16 AM, Fozz said: No one is asking for a HECS. I am. We only get HECS around here. HECS are easy. Its the 3-6, 4-8 storms that we can never get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:16 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think we disagree...I guess my point is to not worry too hard about specifics this far out since things can change in a hurry when it's marginal. I understand fully how tough it is to get a HECS there. You still have some issues to work out at H5 over New England and energy diving into this trough from the Plains too...nevermind where the deformation band sets up. I know you're not but a lot of people see 1" on the model and assume that's great. But if it comes over 24 hours its probably not. Now is not the time to punt or anything but its waaaaay premature to be declaring victory as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Did that really just happen??? That thang just gave me 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:24 AM, snowdude said: Yeah I really can't see DC getting only 2 inches with this storm track and amount of precip. That snowfall map only shows 2-4 (dark green)for 95 not 4-8, but I don't believe that. That's what I was wondering, to my eye it "only" shows ~2-4" with an extreme gradient just to the west into the higher totals. As I said before, maybe pointless to parse those details on that kind of map now, but I did also wonder. How much of BL temperatures are taken into account on those, and what ratios are typically used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:23 AM, Scraff said: Nope. Just a BECS. I actually enjoyed a 6-pack of Becks beer the night of Feb. 5, 2010!! Purposely got that, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can I STFU to everyone in DC north area? Serious-- You guys had 3 KU's in 09-10. Yeah, it's sucked balls since then. So what-- it's snow. We had a couple decent events down my way since then, but nothing to make up for those 10 days. I had 36 inches TOTAL that winter. Grow up-- I'm sitting on the fringe-- w/luck I can see 8 inches, 4-5 more likely due to ratio and crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 to show I'm open minded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 FWIW -- UKIE at 72 has the h5 energy in N AR... close to the MO/AR border... which is about 50-75 miles south of the 00z GFS position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:29 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: I actually enjoyed a 6-pack of Becks beer the night of Feb. 5, 2010!! Purposely got that, of course. My favorite part of big snows--beer shopping! Nice call on the Becks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Forget the clown maps, if that precip verifies with a little dynamics, I think you guys along I95 are going to get rocked. You're way over due for 6"+ event. Both NY and NE have had their snows, now its your turn. I really hope you guys get thumped good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains). I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:27 AM, Ji said: I am. We only get HECS around here. HECS are easy. Its the 3-6, 4-8 storms that we can never get Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:35 AM, vinylfreak89 said: the evolution of this has continued to and will continue to change. The pseudo 50/50 low and whether a piece hangs back or not is still not resolved. Also, the possibility of phasing is becoming more evident on 0z vs 18z (look at 78 vs 84 hrs and the vorticity that is thru the central plains). I don't think I've ever seen global's print out that amount of QPF this far out. This a ridiculously dynamic storm and could be record breaking for someone. all bets are off if theres a significant phase with northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:33 AM, Scraff said: My favorite part of big snows--beer shopping! Nice call on the Becks. Yes, very good stuff, even more when you're enjoying a BECS outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:10 AM, Highzenberg said: Wait until the NAM gets a hold of this lol....If the GFS is showing 2-3" of QPF imagine the NAM. Bit OT but right now I am 75% sure I will make a roadtrip for this storm since it will be the last chance to see snow most likely this year.. What is a good spot in NW VA that has some elevation and does well usually? Sounds like you'll be hitching the ole pop-up trailer to the back of the Prius and setting up camp on the windward side of Beacon Hill! You can find it via RadarScope; it's the annoying, intransient 20dbz anomaly about 10nm WNW, and a lofty 250' above, LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:31 AM, yoda said: FWIW -- UKIE at 72 has the h5 energy in N AR... close to the MO/AR border... which is about 50-75 miles south of the 00z GFS position It's been the furthest south of all models this entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:30 AM, Huffwx said: Can I STFU to everyone in DC north area? Serious-- You guys had 3 KU's in 09-10. Yeah, it's sucked balls since then. So what-- it's snow. We had a couple decent events down my way since then, but nothing to make up for those 10 days. I had 36 inches TOTAL that winter. Grow up-- I'm sitting on the fringe-- w/luck I can see 8 inches, 4-5 more likely due to ratio and crap. Let's wait and see what the Euro shows. We are still 8-10" on this run of the GFS. And this snow map looks much more like 12z Euro but just a little north. Maybe GFS is still playing catch up. Crossing my fingers but going to bed. It will be a long few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM again has the Low pressure moving into southern VA and sits over Richmond for hours. Most of us go to rain. I-81 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:37 AM, Bob Chill said: Ive been chuckling and lol'ing at your posts since I joined eastern in 2005 and they will never get old. Ha Jokes aside, were getting awful close to feelin "ok" about a march caliber hecs for all. Including Mitch even though he changed his name to Deb. HECS to me is 18"+, term is way overused by some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:27 AM, Ji said: I am. We only get HECS around here. HECS are easy. Its the 3-6, 4-8 storms that we can never get You'll be disappointed to hear that I'm struggling to find a way to ruin this one for ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:40 AM, Fozz said: HECS to me is 18"+, term is way overused by some here. Anything over 2 is Hecs to me nowadays. That's 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The models have done really well with the 3 big storms this month. Doesn't mean they will this time, but once within the 72 hour time frame, I think we will have a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 4:41 AM, Ender said: You'll be disappointed to hear that I'm struggling to find a way to ruin this one for ya... Keep trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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