mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's good. I would hate for the 84 hour NAM extrapolation to be without merit...(axe to head) don't think it will need to be extrapolated at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 init. errors reliance are usually the last desperate play, not one of first resort. hmmm Keep in mind where its coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 We're about to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the transfer of the 850 low from 78 to 84 hrs is pretty classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm only discussing the NAM because it's Ian's favorite. Sim Radar dumps on us btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM looks for central and western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM has the 5h low centered over SW VA, about as exact to the SREF at same time as you'll probably ever find (fwiw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM looks for central and western MD. Looks for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 thank you. I know a lot comes from satellite data, but I thought actual rawinsonde obs were pretty important. Why is it if satellite data is the majority of obs does it matter when shortwaves are over the pacific for sampling? It's true that satellite data accounts for the greatest quantity of data assimilated during each forecast cycle, but it is also typically associated with the highest errors. Radiosondes are few and far between, but much better for determining the exact vertical profile of temp / moisture / wind etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It doesn't look like Cips analogs go back to 1962. There is no way this would not come up #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM looks for central and western MD. You are terrible. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The infamous Ash Wednesday coastal storm. Indeed, probably the best analog for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It doesn't look like Cips analogs go back to 1962. There is no way this would not come up #1. that is scary close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It doesn't look like Cips analogs go back to 1962. There is no way this would not come up #1. accuwx already called it like 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The infamous Ash Wednesday coastal storm. Indeed, probably the best analog for this. yeah why not run to one of the worst storms in the last 200 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah why not run to one of the worst storms in the last 200 years. In fairness, its probably a cross between Knickerbocker and Ash Wednesday. With some Sandy thrown in. And Jake Gyllanhall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I honestly was over this winter and expected nothing more if this storm happens, great if it doesn't, I frankly don't feel like I've lost a thing because this winter was dead already Good way to look at it. No such thing as a "bust" for a potential March snow storm. If it happens it's a bonus ending on a crap season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The infamous Ash Wednesday coastal storm. Indeed, probably the best analog for this. BWI got 1.45" of Precip from that storm. About 1.35" of it was all snow. 33-36 degrees through the entire event. Conversely, Millersville only got 3.5" of snow out of .5" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah why not run to one of the worst storms in the last 200 years. Please change your avatar. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The infamous Ash Wednesday coastal storm. Indeed, probably the best analog for this. yeah why not run to one of the worst storms in the last 200 years. Someone should tell Jason accuweathers post isn't looking to "irresponsible" any more :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 BWI got 1.45" of Precip from that storm. About 1.35" of it was all snow. 33-36 degrees through the entire event. Conversely, Millersville only got 3.5" of snow. That is something to bleh heh about. Cutoff lows retain lower atmospheric heights at their center or perhaps the precip was too light and limited at Millersville. We should see something similar with this system. I'm guessing the area in question would be Central VA this time for heavy snow amounts, just north of the vort track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The analog match can be a little deceiving .No two storms are ever alike and small differences can be a big deal impact wise. However the shore will easily get minor to moderate coastal flooding with potential for major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Please change your avatar. Thx Nemo > Saturn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah why not run to one of the worst storms in the last 200 years. Yeah. It only stalled for 4 days. Awful coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah. It only stalled for 4 days. Awful coastal flooding. Don't need another sandy-esque coastal flooding event here. That would be a fooking disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ash Wednesday storm rearranged the coastline of VA, and would be a 20 billion damage storm today. This storm looks like it could dump similar snow totals in the mts of WV/ VA, at least as modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS a Rollin'.. No Whammy, No Whammy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Don't see any big differences early on the 00z compared to the 18z through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This GFS and next EURO most important of winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This GFS and next EURO most important of winter? 00z Tomorrow is my bet when we have everything onshore. That's when we can probably start nailing down ranges for certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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