stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 And just think yall...this is with little to no northern stream interaction. Could you imagine a full phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Steady upward trend from yesterday's 0z through 8 runs to today's 18z. Heck of a signal for great QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And just think yall...this is with little to no northern stream interaction. Could you imagine a full phase? Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Heck of a signal for great QPF. Indeed. We've got about 12-18 more hours of GEFS utility before the Op is much superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK mets, the sounding graph looks good, but this text output says that the 0 line is around 500 meters above the ground, correct? so that's over 1500', which means it is likely not snow, at least per the article Ian posted am I wrong? PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 999. 72. 1.9 1.3 52.0 9.8 975. 275. 1.4 0.3 61.7 20.1 950. 484. 0.2 -0.6 69.7 25.7 925. 697. -1.1 -1.6 76.7 28.7 Not to be a pain but where is the site that you can access this text output from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Indeed. We've got about 12-18 more hours of GEFS utility before the Op is much superior. Now we just need to have it hold to appease the weenies (of which I am one lol). Good to see the ensembles marching upward only and not waffling or reducing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... I posted yesterday or the day before that no phase gives more wiggle room. It was diagreed with (and rightfullyso) but here we are. Much easier on the nerves this wasy as long as the storm stays relatively intense. I'm cautiously pumped myself. It more of a what you see is what you get scenario leading in vs everything has to time right and we get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The whole setup looks very similar to March 1962 to my untrained eye. I forgot where the analog page was so I can't say for sure if it's the number 1 match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... You and me both brotha. I just need the models to hold through 12z and I'm all in, 100% vested. And yeah, the phasing is tricky. But I can't help but think that injecting some colder air and more nrn stream enrgy wouldn't hurt. In an hour and a half, the NAM is going to go bat**** mostly likely and have us all in reds and colors off the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing that might be a good sign (or not) is the streak of winter storm watches (and warnings) hoisted through upper midwest. Currently runs on a northwest to southeast trajectory and covers six states so far, with the watches extending into northwestern Illinois. Maybe speaks well of that piece of energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFs at 87 have h5 triple contoured closed focused in Tri-State Region (aka SW VA/S WV/E KY). It is moving ever so slightly south of east from 81 to 87 hrs. Good signal for QPF as well, 0.5"+ at 87 for 12 hr time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-04-18/news/36779813_1_highpointers-club-britton-hill-high-point Edit - Toward the end of Commutageddon, I went up to Fort Reno and stuck a yardstick into several places in the park -- in that field you cite in the line -- and got several measurements that were in excess of 8". Came back home, did the same thing in my (little) yard -- I'm around 360 or so in elevation -- and measured between 6-7". Unscientific, I know, but there it is. Fort Reno's also a pretty big park. So maybe the urban heat effect is less and in a marginal event, that might have an affect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My avatar for the last few days for this reason only! Hope we have rings of deformation bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This system looks similar to the 3/14/99 analogs except this isn't a Miller a/b scenario. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F096/EC_096/1999031506_ncdc.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg=&dt=1999031506#VA Even scarier that this is post #314 and that I had Pie for dessert 8-) http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?dt=1999031506®=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFs at 87 have h5 triple contoured closed focused in Tri-State Region (aka SW VA/S WV/E KY). It is moving ever so slightly south of east from 81 to 87 hrs. Good signal for QPF as well, 0.5"+ at 87 for 12 hr time period 5H vort looks to be in a near perfect spot ughh, to have it 1C colder throughout the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the path of the 5H vort is looking similar to 2/10/10, but w/o the cold temps just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 7H RH on the 87 hr SREF fwiw suggests to me another jog north with the NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=700_rh&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_700_rh.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF's look great for SC PA towards the end of the run. Check out the h5 map...talk about a bowling ball! Capture.JPG The corresponding surface low is in a good position as well with explosive deepening likely taking place after the last frame... Capture1.JPG I know it's the SREF, which is a higher-res model and subject to convective biases, but it's a step in the correct direction. 21s SREFS are niiiiiice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21s SREFS are niiiiiice. the 1000-500mb thickness maps depicts the 5h vort even better I don't think I could ask for a better spot all other things considered http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the path of the 5H vort is looking similar to 2/10/10, but w/o the cold temps just sayin' #1 CIPS analog (72hr GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 #1 CIPS analog (72hr GFS) yikes, and I thought my memory was fading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Starting to get that "look" on the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yikes, and I thought my memory was fading! The #3 analog at 96 hours is 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The #3 analog at 96 hours is 2/6/10. now I'm scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Click on the 72 hr panel (northeast US) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 now I'm scared #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 in case anyone is wondering what 2/6/10 and 2/10/10 5h maps looked like, check out the month of 2/10 from St. Jose Univ. site kudos to Ian, who I believe posted this while crying into his beer in 2/11 while NE was getting crushed (OK, I added the tears and the beer part) http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/archive/GFS_NA/0210/500/animate.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow those analogs are enormous. We need that block to stay right where it is now. We dont want that 500 going a lot further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Based on 500mb heights, 03/04/2000 is also in the top 3. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Thats because the April 98 storm was nothing down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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