ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tried to post a pic. Didn't work. Here's a link http://meteocentre.com/models/get_arch_panel.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb You can get archived images there. You'll see it's early solutions. That link initialized on 2/24! I have no clue what any model was showing last sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tried to post a pic. Didn't work. Here's a link http://meteocentre.com/models/get_arch_panel.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb You can get archived images there. You'll see it's early solutions. The wed 2/27 and esp the 2/28 initialization shows exactly what ive been describing. CHI-to-VA w/ the NYC-SNE storm. I don't know what your talking about but I'm not going to clog this thread w/ it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thanks! I feel like I've heard it explained many times, but for some reason I was able to grasp your explanation better. I know there's still a lot more to it, but at least I have a general idea. No problem. Soundings can be confusing, with the lines criss crossing and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I might roadtrip there with IAN....they measure highest in DC in every event.... That was the highest point in DC I could find on google earth it's around 410' elevation. I have 1000' hills just NW of Frederick but I'm sitting at a lousy 280ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've been at ~475' for 4 winters now and it hasn't helped me much, but we haven't had a real borderline case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fort Reno 3 blocks from the metro is 441' I drove up there in my 4wd during pD3 and the difference between Georgetown and tenleytown was mind blowing. Like 2 different worlds. In an event like this just as an example I could see Capitol Hill measure 3.5" and tenleytown measure 11" http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-04-18/news/36779813_1_highpointers-club-britton-hill-high-point After five years of paperwork, red tape and technicalities, the highest natural point in the District of Columbia has at long last been established, and it will be officially dedicated in a ceremony tomorrow. It's in Fort Reno Park, atop a grassy hill, at 409 feet. Edit - In 2007, the Highpointers Club in conjunction with the National Park Service had Fort Reno surveyed for the highest natural point of land within Fort Reno Park. The result was a new USGS-style survey marker dated 2007 that is in an open field off of Nebraska Avenue NW between Wilson High School and Deal Junior High School. The official height of the DC highpoint at Fort Reno is 409 feet, which is about 20 feet lower than the artificial highpoint of approximately 429 feet in the area of the reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Today's GEFS mean total precip at BWI: 0z: 1.12" 6z: 1.12" 12z: 1.31" 18z:1.48" Steady upward trend from yesterday's 0z through 8 runs to today's 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 And just think yall...this is with little to no northern stream interaction. Could you imagine a full phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Steady upward trend from yesterday's 0z through 8 runs to today's 18z. Heck of a signal for great QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And just think yall...this is with little to no northern stream interaction. Could you imagine a full phase? Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Heck of a signal for great QPF. Indeed. We've got about 12-18 more hours of GEFS utility before the Op is much superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OK mets, the sounding graph looks good, but this text output says that the 0 line is around 500 meters above the ground, correct? so that's over 1500', which means it is likely not snow, at least per the article Ian posted am I wrong? PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPD HPA M C C DEG M/S E = Estimated Surface Height 999. 72. 1.9 1.3 52.0 9.8 975. 275. 1.4 0.3 61.7 20.1 950. 484. 0.2 -0.6 69.7 25.7 925. 697. -1.1 -1.6 76.7 28.7 Not to be a pain but where is the site that you can access this text output from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Indeed. We've got about 12-18 more hours of GEFS utility before the Op is much superior. Now we just need to have it hold to appease the weenies (of which I am one lol). Good to see the ensembles marching upward only and not waffling or reducing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... I posted yesterday or the day before that no phase gives more wiggle room. It was diagreed with (and rightfullyso) but here we are. Much easier on the nerves this wasy as long as the storm stays relatively intense. I'm cautiously pumped myself. It more of a what you see is what you get scenario leading in vs everything has to time right and we get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The whole setup looks very similar to March 1962 to my untrained eye. I forgot where the analog page was so I can't say for sure if it's the number 1 match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Double edged sword. Phases are so damn complicated....but a proper phases would help with dynamical cooling. As it stands Randy I am starting to get that pumped feeling..... You and me both brotha. I just need the models to hold through 12z and I'm all in, 100% vested. And yeah, the phasing is tricky. But I can't help but think that injecting some colder air and more nrn stream enrgy wouldn't hurt. In an hour and a half, the NAM is going to go bat**** mostly likely and have us all in reds and colors off the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing that might be a good sign (or not) is the streak of winter storm watches (and warnings) hoisted through upper midwest. Currently runs on a northwest to southeast trajectory and covers six states so far, with the watches extending into northwestern Illinois. Maybe speaks well of that piece of energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFs at 87 have h5 triple contoured closed focused in Tri-State Region (aka SW VA/S WV/E KY). It is moving ever so slightly south of east from 81 to 87 hrs. Good signal for QPF as well, 0.5"+ at 87 for 12 hr time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-04-18/news/36779813_1_highpointers-club-britton-hill-high-point Edit - Toward the end of Commutageddon, I went up to Fort Reno and stuck a yardstick into several places in the park -- in that field you cite in the line -- and got several measurements that were in excess of 8". Came back home, did the same thing in my (little) yard -- I'm around 360 or so in elevation -- and measured between 6-7". Unscientific, I know, but there it is. Fort Reno's also a pretty big park. So maybe the urban heat effect is less and in a marginal event, that might have an affect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My avatar for the last few days for this reason only! Hope we have rings of deformation bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This system looks similar to the 3/14/99 analogs except this isn't a Miller a/b scenario. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F096/EC_096/1999031506_ncdc.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096&flg=&dt=1999031506#VA Even scarier that this is post #314 and that I had Pie for dessert 8-) http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?dt=1999031506®=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREFs at 87 have h5 triple contoured closed focused in Tri-State Region (aka SW VA/S WV/E KY). It is moving ever so slightly south of east from 81 to 87 hrs. Good signal for QPF as well, 0.5"+ at 87 for 12 hr time period 5H vort looks to be in a near perfect spot ughh, to have it 1C colder throughout the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the path of the 5H vort is looking similar to 2/10/10, but w/o the cold temps just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 7H RH on the 87 hr SREF fwiw suggests to me another jog north with the NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=700_rh&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_700_rh.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21z SREF's look great for SC PA towards the end of the run. Check out the h5 map...talk about a bowling ball! Capture.JPG The corresponding surface low is in a good position as well with explosive deepening likely taking place after the last frame... Capture1.JPG I know it's the SREF, which is a higher-res model and subject to convective biases, but it's a step in the correct direction. 21s SREFS are niiiiiice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 21s SREFS are niiiiiice. the 1000-500mb thickness maps depicts the 5h vort even better I don't think I could ask for a better spot all other things considered http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the path of the 5H vort is looking similar to 2/10/10, but w/o the cold temps just sayin' #1 CIPS analog (72hr GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 #1 CIPS analog (72hr GFS) yikes, and I thought my memory was fading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Starting to get that "look" on the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yikes, and I thought my memory was fading! The #3 analog at 96 hours is 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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