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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Fodie77

Fodie77

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:13 PM, clskinsfan said:

GFS stole an inch of my NAM qpf :)...Seriously though we all would take this in a heartbeat. 12+ for just about everyone in this subforum.

 

Haha, this is slowly becoming a train wreck for RIC and central VA, but good luck to you nonetheless. Being from the Valley myself I'll always root for you guys.

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weathercoins

weathercoins

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:07 PM, 87storms said:

Just out of curiosity when do you think lwx issues a statement? Will it take a better euro run? Unrelated to this post...I haven't paid a lot of attention the last couple days to the current temps but each day I was surprised by how cold it's been outside.

 

I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:19 PM, PhineasC said:

Yes, GFS says this could be a classic with some wind, long duration, and maybe some TSSN if we play our cards right. The real story will be the outages and tree damage as this will be cement.

 

I have strong suspicions that this GFS run would be a prolific TSSN producer.

 

At 72 hrs, it has winds at 925 mb ripping at 60-70 kts...

 

gfs32013030318f72wspd92.png

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samdman95

samdman95

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:16 PM, yoda said:

clown maps are silly, but if you're going to use them, use the ones that show the full extent of the snow, rather than during the storm.  16" bullseye over DC

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth084.gif

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:29 PM, Bari said:

Hmm nobody seems to be talking about wind potential, hit more miss I'd like to know what we could expect with that.

With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good

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SeminoleSullivan

SeminoleSullivan

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:19 PM, weathercoins said:

I bet watches get posted with tomorrow mornings package

 

"A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours." 

 

That'd be right on the cusp. I think you'll start seeing them show up after the 12z suite for southern parts of the CWA.  

 

Below: Yes, the radar is about an hour ahead...but I've circled a few areas (Intellicast also doesn't exactly snag Canada, either) Also note the 850 temps. Granted, this is only 15 hours out -> but these are the things that I'm looking at.

 

gfsfw_zps2750bdbc.pngThat being said - I think Philadelphia is still very much in the game - I'm not sold on the New England idea yet, I'm still favoring the Euro's tougher ballgame with the confluence by a hair. But pattern recognition may well come into play.

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Bari

Bari

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:32 PM, PDIII said:

With the scenario depicted on the American models this afternoon... power outages will be a serious, serious issue... wet snow and wind... not good

lol... as a met student don't hate me for hearing exactly what i wanted to hear

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SeminoleSullivan

SeminoleSullivan

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:18 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

Where have you been?

 

Mods, I'd put this in banter but I haven't figured out how to copy a quote and keep it a quote.

 

Fighting with physics. If I had my druthers, I'd say you were in the sweet spot. West of 270, north of 70 is where my money is at the moment.  But your area isn't far behind.

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real

real

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:30 PM, zwyts said:

for us at low elevation I'd probably take 70% of QPF since it is obscene and then use 7:1 or 8:1 ratios...If I was forecasting off the 18z GFS, I'd probably go 10-14" for DCA/Cap Hill and 15-20" for Rockville etc...

 

I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and  8 to 16 for NW burbs.  When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low.  Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010,  With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues.

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

There were actually big changes on this run.

 

SNE gets hit with precip

 

Storm bombs offshore to 984mb

 

Storm is slower to exit.

 

These all make sense given that there is a strong closed H5 low.  It was the quick moving 1002mb solutions  that had me scratching my head. This is not a  progressive flow.

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SeminoleSullivan

SeminoleSullivan

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:38 PM, real said:

I'd go less for DC. Maybe 6 to 10, or even 4 to 8 for DC and  8 to 16 for NW burbs.  When the snow is extremely wet, my experience is the city usually busts low.  Remember in Jan 2011, Much of DC ended up with less than 5 inches cause snow was so wet and melting from underneath as fast as it was falling. DC also busted low -- almost nothing, despite a WSW for 6 inches- during that mini storm a few days before Feb. 5, 2010,  With that said, real potential here for big time tree/power issues.

 

Always remember - Forecasting has always been stupid with numbers. 20% chance of rain? 20% of the area gets it/ 20% chance it falls over the whole area, part of the area?

 

Same goes for snow. Those of us who measure with boards/gauges might find that DC Proper could well have a foot of snow. But what sticks and what falls...two different animals. That's where physics becomes fun!

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PDIII

PDIII

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:40 PM, KAOS said:

Isn't wind going to be an issue with heavy wet snow on the trees? I would think so.....

Our local NWS office seems to think so ...STRONG NLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WED

AFTN AND NGT. POWER OUTAGES WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN AREASTHAT RECEIVE HVY WET SNOW.
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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:44 PM, SeminoleSullivan said:

Oh absolutely, I was referencing more of the drifting aspect. This stuff is going to compact too. So the totals will be dubious.

Yes, those that measure with boards place two side by side, clean one each 6 hour period, don't touch the other- difference will likely be huge.

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Bari

Bari

Posted
Posted
  On 3/3/2013 at 10:52 PM, Scraff said:

I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up.  And apparently we're not far off from this either...

 

 

  On 3/3/2013 at 10:52 PM, Scraff said:

I'm sorry. I just had to throw this old school Feb 2010 forecast up.  And apparently we're not far off from this either...

 

lol those snow shower later on wednesday turned out to be much better then that.

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