Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z won't be telling unless the GFS folds. We'll have to wait for the full package at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 7:53 PM, HM said: From about Tuesday Night into Thursday Morning we are piling water into the Mid Atlantic shore. I am not an expert on this stuff, esp. for your area in the Chesapeake/Tidewater etc. But that is a long time to be piling water. At least, astronomically, things aren't bad like they were with Sandy. Thanks, HM. Does look like it could be extended piling, but true about tides. We had moderate flooding on the upper western shore btw with Sandy. -Resident coastal flooding weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:07 PM, mitchnick said: as in up this way or due east of DCA? looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 7:33 PM, PhineasC said: Who cares if the probability maps are computer-generated? The model runs themselves are computer-generated. It is just another product to look at. Sref is just weather porn right now for all of us northern va to northern md. Wish we could just lock that solution in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My summary: Ec may be on crack-- but this is a minor difference, that perhaps the EC higher skill would note first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:12 PM, Ian said: looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night how's it look in my hood-- like ROA to RIC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Only thing to take away from the 18z NAM through 36 is that the h5 energy is slightly slower in the N Plains and the block is a bit further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:09 PM, NOVAForecaster said: this was the 9Z FWIW too much crop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:12 PM, Ian said: looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night K thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:17 PM, Huffwx said: how's it look in my hood-- like ROA to RIC?? pretty good. bullseye is up to the NW of CHO but you're solidly in the 4-8/8-12 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:19 PM, yoda said: Only thing to take away from the 18z NAM through 36 is that the h5 energy is slightly slower in the N Plains and the block is a bit further west same situation as 6z vs. 12z I never like delays, but 12z didn't seem to hurt so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:15 PM, Huffwx said: My summary: Ec may be on crack-- but this is a minor difference, that perhaps the EC higher skill would note first. It might be on some of Highzenberg's Blue since it's been showing generally the same operational result the last 4 runs. That's a pretty prolonged high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:12 PM, Ian said: looks a bit better for you.. still a sharp drop to the northeast/east -- your area is like right on the line of the 4-8" which bulged east thru the dc area compared to last night I was just thinking if qpf didn't increase between runs, that must mean it is a little colder I like hearing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:24 PM, nflwxman said: It might be on some of Highzenberg's Blue since it's been showing generally the same operational result the last 4 runs. That's a pretty prolonged high. It has changed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:21 PM, BTRWeather said: too much crop? Yeah it's messed up. Fixed here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:27 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Yeah it's messed up. Fixed here though. thanks, very nice results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:31 PM, yoda said: NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so a little, but that could change later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:31 PM, yoda said: NAM will be going south some based off of h5... prob 50-70 miles or so but a heck of a lot more moisture at hour 57 compared to 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM does not look that much south, looks like it was just slower. That's why we should probably wait before declaring anything. It still could end up south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And the 15Z SREFs are in... Mean went down at IAD about an inch, but the lower members have moved up and the higher members have moved down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:38 PM, stormtracker said: NAM does not look that much south, looks like it was just slower. thru 57, I'd agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 It did get wetter, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:39 PM, Ian said: I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. If we get less than 24", I'll be upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We are going to be NAM'd again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:40 PM, stormtracker said: It did get wetter, that's for sure. a product of slowing down I would suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 8:39 PM, Ian said: I wouldn't worry too much about totals going down unless you believed th absurd numbers from some runs. Looks like it still is going to be big to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM at 66 is beautiful. super juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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