mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 1:58 AM, MN Transplant said: The #3 analog at 96 hours is 2/6/10. now I'm scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Click on the 72 hr panel (northeast US) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:00 AM, mitchnick said: now I'm scared #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 in case anyone is wondering what 2/6/10 and 2/10/10 5h maps looked like, check out the month of 2/10 from St. Jose Univ. site kudos to Ian, who I believe posted this while crying into his beer in 2/11 while NE was getting crushed (OK, I added the tears and the beer part) http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/archive/GFS_NA/0210/500/animate.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow those analogs are enormous. We need that block to stay right where it is now. We dont want that 500 going a lot further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:03 AM, yoda said: #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Based on 500mb heights, 03/04/2000 is also in the top 3. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:03 AM, yoda said: #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Thats because the April 98 storm was nothing down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:03 AM, yoda said: #2 is Feb 7 1980 #1 is April 4 1998 (which I dont remember at all) Neither are interesting. #4 is 2-4-95 which was a 4.5" storm at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 um 21z SREF turns us to rain. Probably a back end dump if they went out past 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:04 AM, clskinsfan said: Wow those analogs are enormous. We need that block to stay right where it is now. We dont want that 500 going a lot further north. SR models will have a tendency go a little nuts amping at the end of their runs. Zero reason to be remotely concerned until the globals do it. Were still at least a day away from worrying about nam/sref. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:07 AM, MN Transplant said: Neither are interesting. #4 is 2-4-95 which was a 4.5" storm at DCA. that started as rain at BWI but quickly turned to snow man I wish we had some cold air to tap maybe some of that -60F stuff that's over the Pole right now makes it here in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 1:46 AM, mitchnick said: the path of the 5H vort is looking similar to 2/10/10, but w/o the cold temps just sayin' Feb '10 is #3 on CIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:08 AM, Amped said: um 21z SREF turns us to rain. Probably a back end dump if they went out past 84 all the models have rain along I95 for at least part of the storm, so I don't think that really changes any thinking re the storm we need some cold air or this will be the most anticlimactic heavy rain/snow mix ever to fall in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I refuse to be worried about extrapolated rain on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:12 AM, mitchnick said: all the models have rain along I95 for at least part of the storm, so I don't think that really changes any thinking re the storm we need some cold air or this will be the most anticlimactic heavy rain/snow mix ever to fall in our area Srefs changed me to rain and I am 1hour northwest of I95. Stronger H5 low tracking further north is probably aiding this. A back end dump will be hard to miss because the H5 low still goes south of us. Based on the srefs I'd also say suppressed like last nights GFS is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:14 AM, PhineasC said: I refuse to be worried about extrapolated rain on the SREFs. Srefs and nam are terrible. Have been all winter. I wont be tempted to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We need the gfs to run so the sref crazy talk can stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SNE Weather Coverage @SNEWeather 00z Nam has errors according to model diagnostics.. a lot of them. Probably will not be worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:19 AM, Bob Chill said: We need the gfs to run so the sref crazy talk can stop a kitten dies every time a weenie uses the 87hr SREF mean to forecast p-type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SREFs have sucked all year, but they have not been bad with this potential event so far, at least wrt 5h path vs. other more reliable models that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:21 AM, NOVAForecaster said: SNE Weather Coverage @SNEWeather 00z Nam has errors according to model diagnostics.. a lot of them. Probably will not be worth looking at. lol we could have said that a lot this year and been right more times than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:21 AM, NOVAForecaster said: SNE Weather Coverage @SNEWeather 00z Nam has errors according to model diagnostics.. a lot of them. Probably will not be worth looking at. All I can find is the discussion at 225pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Was thinking 2/10/10 a bit earlier as well tho that vort entered quite a bit east I think. Good to see some fun CIPS analogs. Now we hope and pray it holds another 24 or so. La la lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:21 AM, chris87 said: a kitten dies every time a weenie uses the 87hr SREF mean to forecast p-type I'm a major weenie but I do stick to a set if rules when making sense of a zillion pieces of model info leading up. We aren't even at the point of looking past global ens means. Using end of run Sref/nam at this range for deterministic stuff will make a sane person insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:19 AM, Bob Chill said: We need the gfs to run so the sref crazy talk can stop This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:21 AM, NOVAForecaster said: SNE Weather Coverage @SNEWeather 00z Nam has errors according to model diagnostics.. a lot of them. Probably will not be worth looking at. If there are any errors it will be posted either in these 2 links: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:28 AM, stormtracker said: All I can find is the discussion at 225pm. This is it really SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z SUN MAR 03 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014291765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278016/BDA - PART B IS MISSING91334/TKK - PART B IS MISSING04339/OBY - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATICHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Who cares about the nam at this range anyway. Put that on auto post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:31 AM, yoda said: This is it really SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z SUN MAR 03 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014291765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278016/BDA - PART B IS MISSING91334/TKK - PART B IS MISSING04339/OBY - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATICHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP maybe dtk can answer, when there is model data missing, how do the models compensate? Just smooth out based on interpolations of good data, or do they take the 6hr forecast from the previous run in to account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On 3/3/2013 at 2:28 AM, Bob Chill said: I'm a major weenie but I do stick to a set if rules when making sense of a zillion pieces of model info leading up. We aren't even at the point of looking past global ens means. Using end of run Sref/nam at this range for deterministic stuff will make a sane person insane. You are talking about people who will look at a 200 hour map and debate the soundings for three hours and then declare the storm a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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