Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well at least the clown maps are still good looking for my area. I'd take 9 inches any day! at this point I'll take 1 inch and it will be more than I've seen in 3 years and to date our average of 7.5 is way off. .2 is all we've had this year. come on and dig further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18Z has the lowest verification scores, according to the chart that DT showed in his video yesterday. So, it may be just as good from a data ingest standpoint or whatever, but if that chart was correct, then it's the least likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yea, screw it! By the latest trends it looks like its pretty much over for us in the mid-south piedmont. Oh well next winter... I'd put money on the 18z gfs verifying 4 days out against anyone willing to take the gfs. Way to soon to throw in the towel especially with the euro ensembles on your side. Side note, Ryan Kelly is starting tonight, so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18Z has the lowest verification scores, according to the chart that DT showed in his video yesterday. So, it may be just as good from a data ingest standpoint or whatever, but if that chart was correct, then it's the least likely to verify. There's a bit of good news....I will not give up until we have model agreement that this one is going north. I would rather this one trend south of me than to go north and dump on the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My hunch is this thing is not coming south and could verify with the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS will flip again,EPS still shows a 4-contour going through S/NC, 532,even your surface temps are better plus the timing couldn't be any better coming in at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My hunch is this thing is not coming south and could verify with the 0z runs Well I think everyone agrees this 18z verbatim isn't going to verify, this event will move, but for 24 hours now they have ticked north, not south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think everyone from NC south would like to see this trend south. I have no idea whether that is likely to happen or not (my gut says no, but whatever) but can someone give any thoughts as to what we should look for that would be a catalyst for a south trend to occur? Stronger blocking? Better 50/50? Stronger system? Weaker system? Energy in the southern stream weaker, slower, not there? Sharper ridge out west? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think everyone from NC south would like to see this trend south. I have no idea whether that is likely to happen or not (my gut says no, but whatever) but can someone give any thoughts as to what we should look for that would be a catalyst for a south trend to occur? Stronger blocking? Better 50/50? Stronger system? Weaker system? Energy in the southern stream weaker, slower, not there? Sharper ridge out west? What? You can start with stronger blocking (confluence to the north) squashing that LP to where physics does not allow the system to possibly go north and has nowhere to go but south. If 0z shows strong blocking like it has recently until the 18z run of the GFS you know that LP can only go so far north before it starts to defy physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Also I am not sure which set of model guidance is superior over one another in regards to depicting confluence/blocking but as WeatherNC noted after the NAM completed its cycle he stated how the h5 setup promoted and showed the blocking stronger than its 12z counterpart so again a lot of variables to consider. I just hope we dont all get our dreams shattered here when tomorrow evening were looking at DC getting 12-18 and we may all end up with 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well I think everyone agrees this 18z verbatim isn't going to verify, this event will move, but for 24 hours now they have ticked north, not south. And not too long ago SC and GA was supposed to get a big hit. So, not sure why we would believe one trend over another at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL- FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MONROE- 553 PM EST SAT MAR 2 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND HEAVY WET SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Jb said models usually trend north when they start to figure it out, he tweeted this refereeing the 18z GFS. So in other words he believes the GFS is beginning to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 And not too long ago SC and GA was supposed to get a big hit. So, not sure why we would believe one trend over another at this point. Wouldn't all this do is verify that the northern trend exists for this storm modeled so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18Z has the lowest verification scores, according to the chart that DT showed in his video yesterday. So, it may be just as good from a data ingest standpoint or whatever, but if that chart was correct, then it's the least likely to verify. Yes, I seen him post that chart yesterday I believe it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What did the UK Met show exactly? I know it was much further south than its past runs, but I can't see the precip field until its under 72 hours. That is a very good model, too ... better than the GFS as far as verification scores go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook. It's not a foot, but all I have said from the start is I wanted at least a half foot of snow. I would be very happy with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook. It's not a foot, but all I have said from the start is I wanted at least a half foot of snow. I would be very happy with this. I hope he is right, but I bet he is the only one saying anything close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook. It's not a foot, but all I have said from the start is I wanted at least a half foot of snow. I would be very happy with this. to all south carolina and georgia folks, even if we don't see any snow its all good because we are used to getting the short end of the stick anyway so doesn't really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I hope he is right, but I bet he is the only one saying anything close to this. 4-8" would be good with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Northern Virginia looks like the sweet spot on the GFS ensemble mean. 1.69" precip max on an ensemble mean! There must be some bombs on the individual members. The precip field didn't seem to shift north so much than just concentrate on the middle of the spread. Both the southern and northern edge of the precip was trimmed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just go back and look at the 18z runs of the GFS for every potential storm we have had this winter...the vast majority have been weenie runs that didnt come close to verifying even at the 3-4 day range. This will be that weenie run for DC folks that will not verify, it will shift south, mark my word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 4-8" would be good with me. Even if the bulk of it hits VA, I think this thing could be so big that they could end up with close to two feet and places back to northern NC could get a foot, and the other amounts that were in that map further down in NC are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Triad still looks to get something significant. NoVA may get a legendary storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Most of the time these estimates are conservative, which means totals could be much higher, especially if the storm pivots or stalls east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We'll let Va. have the Final Four. For once this year ... heck, the past 2 years ...we just want to get to the Dance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just go back and look at the 18z runs of the GFS for every potential storm we have had this winter...the vast majority have been weenie runs that didnt come close to verifying even at the 3-4 day range. This will be that weenie run for DC folks that will not verify, it will shift south, mark my word. this thing has to trend south, I've heard the same thing that the 18z is about the least reliable. this morning this storm was trending south a little so now that its ticking north is this the gospel, I don't think so. still a lot of time to come south and get that heavy snow into all of nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this thing has to trend south, I've heard the same thing that the 18z is about the least reliable. this morning this storm was trending south a little so now that its ticking north is this the gospel, I don't think so. still a lot of time to come south and get that heavy snow into all of nc Let's see what the 0z Euro does. If it follows the gfs or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I hope it comes back south some, I would love to see everybody get in on the action... That said I wouldn't bet on much if any southward trend... I trust the Euro much more than GFS, but that don't mean Euro is right GFS is wrong. But I would give Euro more weight on this, I read somewhere that it usually does best on big east coast storms? What we don't want to see is the Euro tick north at 0z that to me would be a BAD sign for NC folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Storm Scenario Number 1, Track & Impacts As the storm reaches the East Coast, we now have two potential scenarios. The first sends the storm eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast, leading to a substantial snowstorm from the central Appalachians into the western half of Virginia, western Maryland and the high spots of western North Carolina. Accu weather still thinks there is a chance of the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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