superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Northern Ohio is the big winner on the 18z NAM. Chicago looks good, too. It's even raining in VA this run. Of course, it is the LR NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nothing good really happening with 18z NAM through 72. Maybe a touch slower. Northern Ohio is the big winner on the 18z NAM. Yep, I was kind of hoping that it would make a little shift south but no dice. This is quickly turning south but in a metaphorical sense not in the way we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Northern Ohio is the big winner on the 18z NAM. Yea NAM is extra funky with its setup in the later stages of its run. Loses the initial LP and then pops one over east central NC. Guess its trying to catch on to the transfer but that was a weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Also much weaker with the precip field but again were talking about the 81 hr NAM so im not going to even get into what the NAM looks like etc at 81 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 By the way, guys here is the correct 12z Euro Ensemble Mean: I'm not sure if it is just faster than the op or legitimately better for NC. Looks like areas from Greensboro on west are getting pancaked at hr 96, in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The blocking didn't look as strong this run on the nam. The surface low ended up about 30 miles NE of the 12z gfs at the same time. Not what we want. I'm hoping for some good trends over the next 24 hours as the energy is sampled better. If nothing improves by then, it will not be our storm in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro ensemble mean is really amped. Brings the upper low right over sw nc. Surface low is just east of rdu. This is hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The blocking didn't look as strong this run on the nam. The surface low ended up about 30 miles NE of the 12z gfs at the same time. Not what we want. I'm hoping for some good trends over the next 24 hours as the energy is sampled better. If nothing improves by then, it will not be our storm in the SE. The block is actually stronger, compare your H5's to the previous iteration through the end of the run. The problem is this at 60hrs, look at the axis, that drives a surface reflection up in to OH towards the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Almost like the H5 cycles, once over the north-central Plains than again over the NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Some insight from Ray Russell at ASU. http://www.raysweather.com/premium/conditions/animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro Ens .is nc 85 west special up through Virgina. Looks like great placement for triad on north and west for a tumping. I have followed these type of sorm for years with the upper level low's and it never goes as models indicate. The 1 I remeber the most was in the early 2000's the panther's were playing and were expecting Blizard conditions and 18" plus of snow, the Weather Channel even showed up and not a thing but partly sunny skies that was it. So take these models and have fun don't get to carried away with the swings because until you see the snow falling it a FOREGUESTAMATE(forecast guess estimate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GSP long term: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE AND WED. THE GEFS MEAN IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE EXACT LOW TRACKS AND THE RESULTING ENHANCED FORCING FROM THE TRACKS OF THE TROWAL AND FRONTOGENESIS. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THIS AREA CENTERED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER INSTEAD OF THE NC/SC BORDER FROM FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS MOVING IN. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS TUE NITE AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW HEADING TO THE COAST. SNOW THEN MIXES IN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT BY MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE MTNS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES TUE NITE. PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS LATE WED WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE MTNS WED EVE BUT DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK THU. Wtf? Okay, someone get me Mickey Brown on the phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro Ens .is nc 85 west special up through Virgina. Looks like great placement for triad on north and west for a tumping. I have followed these type of sorm for years with the upper level low's and it never goes as models indicate. The 1 I remeber the most was in the early 2000's the panther's were playing and were expecting Blizard conditions and 18" plus of snow, the Weather Channel even showed up and not a thing but partly sunny skies that was it. So take these models and have fun don't get to carried away with the swings because until you see the snow falling it a FOREGUESTAMATE(forecast guess estimate) That was 2001. What you thinking around us Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This was just posted on DT facebook page. Wxrisk.com TUESDAY NIGHT rain snow miox over SW VA .. eastern KY ... RAIN over ALL of NC even over the western NC mtns ... Good snows over IND southern OH western KY WEDNESDAY 1AM MARCH 6 ... HEAVY SNOW most of IND all of OH except for CLE.. eastern half of KY eastern TN mtns above 800 feet ... all of WVA except for northeast WVA... RAIN going to HEAVY SNOW over far sw VA.... and west of intertstate 81 ... CENTRAL VA/ RICHMOND is all rain... as is all of southeast VA down to EMPORIA and all of southeast VA ... snow Reaches NW VA ... WEDNESDAY 7AM MARCH 6 ... for RICHMOND and all of southeast VA = RAIN as is ALL of eastern half of NC .. east of I-85 . MODERATE SNOW continues over far eastern KY ALL of OH into southwest PA... up to PITT.. HEAVY SNOW over eastern half of WVA ... all of SOUTHWEST VA.. from Wytheville to Roanoke ...all of the Shenandoah to Harrisonburg... SNOW over all fo the PEIDMONT ... from HICKORY NC to Lynchburg to FREDERICKSURG into al of NORTHERN VA including DCA.. MODERATE snow reaches BWI and western side of Lower MD eastern shore WED 1PM MARCH 6 ... the Low is over NORTHEAST NC... RICHMOND has gone over to Snow...( for you wx Geeks 850 TEMP IS -3C !!!) .... SNOW ends over eastern KY... and close to ednign over FAR sw VA ( west of Wytheville) MODERATE snow into western PA... NORTH EDGE of the snow reach HARRISBURG and Philly.. HEAVY SNOW over all of western and central VA... Roanoke to HOT SPRINGS to C' ville ...all of the Shenandoah valley gets buried ... VA PIEDMONT all HEAVY SNOW.. as is all of NORTHEN VA into DCA / BWI .. DEL/ Lower MD eastern shore.. snow rain Mix to all snow in NC ... GREENSBORO sees moderate snow for several hours .. snow ends at HICKORY IN NJ MODERATE SNOW Cape may NJ WEDNESDAY 7PM ... LOW is now east of ELIZABETH CITY NC ... heading EAST out to sea in eastern NC Rain has gone over to SNOW ... in VA ....MODERATE snow still over sw VA...Roanoke Lynchburg HOT SPRINGS.. into eastern WVA sourthwest PA Altoona Harrisburg Philly Trrenton NJ... HEAVY snow over Richmond and all of central VA as far west as FARMVILLE into Middle Penisula Northern neck to Frederisburg and all of DCA southern MD and BWI into Hagerstown.. SOUTHEAST VA may be all SNOW 1am THURSDAY MARCH 7.. SNOW is over across ALL of southwest VA and western NC.. MODERATE SNOW still over C' ville Richmond Farmville to to Fredericksburg and DCA into Philly and southern half of NJ HEAVY SNOW over lower MD eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 EPS control run of the Euro is pretty close to the OP...looks better for RDU. Really crushes VA. Also looks good for I-40 and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Really like the set-up but just a little bit worried we may be to far south in the end. I just have seen more that don't workout than do in this situation. As you have heard amny Mets say today the wobble can be good or bad for us or anyone on this board jsut depending which way it wobbles. If the Euro and GFS are right we get a good thumping and the models will not until late monday pick up on the amounts. Good news is we are still tracking instead of outside mowing! Bye the way I'm ready for baseball, and golf anyone else? That was 2001. What you thinking around us Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Really like the set-up but just a little bit worried we may be to far south in the end. I just have seen more that don't workout than do in this situation. As you have heard amny Mets say today the wobble can be good or bad for us or anyone on this board jsut depending which way it wobbles. If the Euro and GFS are right we get a good thumping and the models will not until late monday pick up on the amounts. Good news is we are still tracking instead of outside mowing! Bye the way I'm ready for baseball, and golf anyone else? Southern fringes usually don't work out...hope it does in this case for everyone. It will likely be all the way or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but the issue appears to be this piece of energy coming in to central/southern CA around 36hrs and heading east through the southern plains before it is phased in to the northern vort somewhere near the middle MS river valley around 72-84hrs. For those with access, look at your 12z EC H5 maps, that is a neg tilt over IA down to TN, hence the surface low we see moving in to the OH valley which was not there a couple days ago. Even with the block trending a little stronger we are still left with virtually the same track, but warmer do to the initial waa out ahead of some junk in the trunk over southern OH-northern KY- western WV. We need to watch for one of two things, the latter being more plausible in order to get a southward and colder correction. 1, the piece of energy coming in to central CA much weaker than progged, with less influence through the central plains to MS river valley, or two, this piece coming in quicker or south and possibly being well ahead of the ULL. I got to hand it to the NAM, I saw this on the 0z run last night and compared it to the prior 12z, it was much stronger, and then looked over the globals which were pretty lackluster with it. Seems to becoming a real player. That is definitely becoming a player in the evolution of the main vort and the associated SLP. When the Canadian phases the two, it acts to slow the ULL down and pull it south, which is at least partly why that model was further south and slower. We should definitely keep an eye on how those two interact in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This was just posted on DT facebook page. Wxrisk.com TUESDAY NIGHT rain snow miox over SW VA .. eastern KY ... RAIN over ALL of NC even over the western NC mtns ... Good snows over IND southern OH western KY WEDNESDAY 1AM MARCH 6 ... HEAVY SNOW most of IND all of OH except for CLE.. eastern half of KY eastern TN mtns above 800 feet ... all of WVA except for northeast WVA... RAIN going to HEAVY SNOW over far sw VA.... and west of intertstate 81 ... CENTRAL VA/ RICHMOND is all rain... as is all of southeast VA down to EMPORIA and all of southeast VA ... snow Reaches NW VA ... WEDNESDAY 7AM MARCH 6 ... for RICHMOND and all of southeast VA = RAIN as is ALL of eastern half of NC .. east of I-85 . MODERATE SNOW continues over far eastern KY ALL of OH into southwest PA... up to PITT.. HEAVY SNOW over eastern half of WVA ... all of SOUTHWEST VA.. from Wytheville to Roanoke ...all of the Shenandoah to Harrisonburg... SNOW over all fo the PEIDMONT ... from HICKORY NC to Lynchburg to FREDERICKSURG into al of NORTHERN VA including DCA.. MODERATE snow reaches BWI and western side of Lower MD eastern shore WED 1PM MARCH 6 ... the Low is over NORTHEAST NC... RICHMOND has gone over to Snow...( for you wx Geeks 850 TEMP IS -3C !!!) .... SNOW ends over eastern KY... and close to ednign over FAR sw VA ( west of Wytheville) MODERATE snow into western PA... NORTH EDGE of the snow reach HARRISBURG and Philly.. HEAVY SNOW over all of western and central VA... Roanoke to HOT SPRINGS to C' ville ...all of the Shenandoah valley gets buried ... VA PIEDMONT all HEAVY SNOW.. as is all of NORTHEN VA into DCA / BWI .. DEL/ Lower MD eastern shore.. snow rain Mix to all snow in NC ... GREENSBORO sees moderate snow for several hours .. snow ends at HICKORY IN NJ MODERATE SNOW Cape may NJ WEDNESDAY 7PM ... LOW is now east of ELIZABETH CITY NC ... heading EAST out to sea in eastern NC Rain has gone over to SNOW ... in VA ....MODERATE snow still over sw VA...Roanoke Lynchburg HOT SPRINGS.. into eastern WVA sourthwest PA Altoona Harrisburg Philly Trrenton NJ... HEAVY snow over Richmond and all of central VA as far west as FARMVILLE into Middle Penisula Northern neck to Frederisburg and all of DCA southern MD and BWI into Hagerstown.. SOUTHEAST VA may be all SNOW 1am THURSDAY MARCH 7.. SNOW is over across ALL of southwest VA and western NC.. MODERATE SNOW still over C' ville Richmond Farmville to to Fredericksburg and DCA into Philly and southern half of NJ HEAVY SNOW over lower MD eastern shore If nothing else, you have to admire the degree of specificity this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From Blacksburg AFD: ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY REAL CONFIDENCE…BASED ON TODAYS 12Z SET OF MODELS…WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. I'm a little surprised to see them tossing around amounts already. They are usually very conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z looks a little south of 12z @57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That energy from CA is much slower on the 18z GFS (through 48). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like the extra energy in the southwest is hanging back a little more compared to 12z. Maybe there will be more room for the bowling ball to drop further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z absorbs that energy to the south and kind of slows it down out to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Interesting insight from RAH WHILE PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH WET SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME MAY ULTIMATELY PROVIDE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS WED. THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY SLOT SHOULD THEN ACTUALLY ENHANCE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE BRUNT OF THE MID-UPPER FORCING PIVOTS EASTWARD AND LIFTS/INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT). THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS SHOULD THEN PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AT WHICH TIME MASS ADJUSTMENTS OWING TO THE PASSING AND DEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CRASH THICKNESSES/THERMAL PROFILES TO THOSE SUPPORTIVE OF A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW. IT STILL APPEARS CENTRAL NC WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND...SO THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CHANCE OF (ACCUMULATING) SNOW -- EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY ABOVE FREEZING -- APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO BE GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's further west of 12z at 75 ... should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @87 3 contour closed low over SW NC going negative it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Definitely juicier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The 50/50 looks weaker, the north trend has officially commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Low goes from SW NC over CLT then over RDU. This run really doesn't help many in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.