packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The real hope we RDUers have is the sampling tomorrow reveals a missed/wrong assumption and the models correct to the south. Unlikely Well considering we are stil 4+ days out you know the track will wobble 50 miles in some direction, I really think come 0z tomorrow night will be telling for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So does RDU get mostly all rain with some backside changeover and then game over? Roughly 0.15" of precip with 850's favorable. It's close, literally 25-50 miles would mean the difference between 6" and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well considering we are stil 4+ days out you know the track will wobble 50 miles in some direction, I really think come 0z tomorrow night will be telling for sure. That was your 72hr mark, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks in the Piedmont, it does look to hit you very good... INT - 0.84" of snow, maybe a little less GSO - 0.90" of snow, maybe a little less as 850's are crashing so you probably lose a little of this. Thanks, Pack. So much cliff diving here this afternoon ... geez, guys. It's one run and we're 3+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Really to early to focus on little track wobbles, plus it is March after all and just the fact we are talking chances of a snow and a big one at that is pretty awesome. As for what JB and DT say, of course they are saying this is going to trend north, or be a big NOVA storm and every time it runs further south they will throw out that run lol. The blocking looks good, the energy is coming in a bit further west, digging a bit further SW etc, baby steps folks baby steps. Does anyone actually think its going to track and do exactly like it is modeled right now? It will take the models several runs to catch up to these little changes it always always does. If the Sunday night runs still show it that far north then NC can start looking to throw in the towel until then its still wide open. I feel sorry for the mods and what they will have to deal with the next few days...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Roughly 0.15" of precip with 850's favorable. It's close, literally 25-50 miles would mean the difference between 6" and rain. Ha! A widre special and we get out the raincoats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks in the Piedmont, it does look to hit you very good... INT - 0.84" of snow, maybe a little less Anything for hickory or morganton? GSO - 0.90" of snow, maybe a little less as 850's are crashing so you probably lose a little of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What's odd on the Euro is we have sub-1000 SLP right over RDU at hour 102, but than at hour 108 it doesn't move and is weakening to just over 1000 and than at hour 114 it's weakened even further and sitting over Hatteras as a broad SLP. The 0z was completely different, it strengthened it through that period down to 992 or so. If we didn't have the weakening I think it would have been better for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For folks in the Piedmont, it does look to hit you very good... INT - 0.84" of snow, maybe a little less Anything for hickory or morganton? GSO - 0.90" of snow, maybe a little less as 850's are crashing so you probably lose a little of this. HKY is tough, it flips during a 6 hour period which has 0.56" of precip falling and than another 0.1" or so falls, so if you take half of that as snow might be a good estimate. What is morganton's airport code? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 What's odd on the Euro is we have sub-1000 SLP right over RDU at hour 102, but than at hour 108 it doesn't move and is weakening to just over 1000 and than at hour 114 it's weakened even further and sitting over Hatteras as a broad SLP. The 0z was completely different, it strengthened it through that period down to 992 or so. If we didn't have the weakening I think it would have been better for RDU. I believe much of it has to do with when/if the system becomes vertically stacked and what happens after it does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So is anybody considering a chase at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That was your 72hr mark, right? Roughly, I think we should wait to cliff jump till Monday 12z or so. The Euro ENS will be telling, I hope it's a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So is anybody considering a chase at this point? I am scheduled to be in Richmond and Herndon next week, if it looks like RDU is going to get skunked I am going, if RDU is in line for anything 3"+ I am staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 HKY is tough, it flips during a 6 hour period which has 0.56" of precip falling and than another 0.1" or so falls, so if you take half of that as snow might be a good estimate. What is morganton's airport code? Kmrn I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Thanks, Pack. So much cliff diving here this afternoon ... geez, guys. It's one run and we're 3+ days out. Agreed, we do have a model consensus now, SLP off the NC coast somewhere, and the models are not taking the SLP north. To be honest, I wouldn't want a shift south on the models until Monday anyways, in a perfect world. Really all we need is a 50 mile shift south, which definitely is doable. Heck, we could get a 50 mile shift south 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Kmrn I think. Same as HKY, give or take a 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I am scheduled to be in Richmond and Herndon next week, if it looks like RDU is going to get skunked I am going, if RDU is in line for anything 3"+ I am staying. I took we and thur off. If it is marginal for Wake Forest, I'm loading the truck and heading to Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 EURO snowfall map paints out... 4-8 from Boone due east off the mountains to east of Greensboro. 8-12 on the VA/NC border maybe Mount Airy due east... perhaps down to Reidsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 FWIW, the 0z Euro Control run crushed central NC, it was the 50 mile shift we need. Hopefully that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z European Ensemble Mean: Thoughts? It's kind of hard to tell what's going on with 24-hour panels, though. That top panel looks south to me. We seem to have forgotten how many times NC has been modeled to be in the sweet spot this far out to see it quickly trend north. I feel this one has a shot to do the same thing south, givin the stronger blocking each model run as well as getting a better sampling of the energy entering the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 FWIW, the 0z Euro Control run crushed central NC, it was the 50 mile shift we need. Hopefully that holds. How did the control run look for the southern apps in TN and NC? Seems like it might get cranking too late for appreciable snow here on this side of the "hill" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like landfall to my untrained eye...or very close to it up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like landfall to my untrained eye...or very close to it up in Canada. anyone see the key word here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GFS mems are torching with a slp ivo of ORF at 102hrs, folks in DC over to western MD gotta be liking these 114hr clown outputs, pretty bleak for anyone south of VA. This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer through NC with that area of lp in the OH Valley, 850 is handing off from a double barrel split at 96hrs to a consolidated sub 1280m 850 parked over RDU at 108hrs, pretty much the time-stamp for when the H5 is at its maturest stage. A-lot of intricacies in those H5 maps, nearly impossible for even the best global on the planet to resolve with certainty 96 hours out. But, it would appear the cyclone reaches its most mature stage over central or eastern NC, rather than just off the Coast like the guidance was showing 1-2 days ago, likely the reason why we are seeing totals jump into the 81 corridor from 77 north to Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but the issue appears to be this piece of energy coming in to central/southern CA around 36hrs and heading east through the southern plains before it is phased in to the northern vort somewhere near the middle MS river valley around 72-84hrs. For those with access, look at your 12z EC H5 maps, that is a neg tilt over IA down to TN, hence the surface low we see moving in to the OH valley which was not there a couple days ago. Even with the block trending a little stronger we are still left with virtually the same track, but warmer do to the initial waa out ahead of some junk in the trunk over southern OH-northern KY- western WV. We need to watch for one of two things, the latter being more plausible in order to get a southward and colder correction. 1, the piece of energy coming in to central CA much weaker than progged, with less influence through the central plains to MS river valley, or two, this piece coming in quicker or south and possibly being well ahead of the ULL. I got to hand it to the NAM, I saw this on the 0z run last night and compared it to the prior 12z, it was much stronger, and then looked over the globals which were pretty lackluster with it. Seems to becoming a real player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What intrigued me about that run is the suppression after it clears the coast. If that could trend earlier??? Maybe the slowing down is affecting that? Grasping? 12z GFS mems are torching with a slp ivo of ORF at 102hrs, folks in DC over to western MD gotta be liking these 114hr clown outputs, pretty bleak for anyone south of VA. gfsmems.JPG This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer through NC with that area of lp in the OH Valley, 850 is handing off from a double barrel split at 96hrs to a consolidated sub 1280m 850 parked over RDU at 108hrs, pretty much the time-stamp for when the H5 is at its maturest stage. A-lot of intricacies in those H5 maps, nearly impossible for even the best global on the planet to resolve with certainty 96 hours out. But, it would appear the cyclone reaches its most mature stage over central or eastern NC, rather than just off the Coast like the guidance was showing 1-2 days ago, likely the reason why we are seeing totals jump into the 81 corridor from 77 north to Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z NAM doesn't have it weaker, but looks like it is speeding it up a bit. Still behind the ULL at 48 hours, but not as much as it was on 12z. That's really good analysis you gave, btw -- very helpful to a dummy like me. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but the issue appears to be this piece of energy coming in to central/southern CA around 36hrs and heading east through the southern plains before it is phased in to the northern vort somewhere near the middle MS river valley around 72-84hrs. For those with access, look at your 12z EC H5 maps, that is a neg tilt over IA down to TN, hence the surface low we see moving in to the OH valley which was not there a couple days ago. Even with the block trending a little stronger we are still left with virtually the same track, but warmer do to the initial waa out ahead of some junk in the trunk over southern OH-northern KY- western WV. We need to watch for one of two things, the latter being more plausible in order to get a southward and colder correction. 1, the piece of energy coming in to central CA much weaker than progged, with less influence through the central plains to MS river valley, or two, this piece coming in quicker or south and possibly being well ahead of the ULL. I got to hand it to the NAM, I saw this on the 0z run last night and compared it to the prior 12z, it was much stronger, and then looked over the globals which were pretty lackluster with it. Seems to becoming a real player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GSP long term: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO COME INTOBETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE WX SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITEAND WED. THE GEFS MEAN IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THEMDLS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE WITH THE EXACT LOW TRACKS AND THERESULTING ENHANCED FORCING FROM THE TRACKS OF THE TROWAL ANDFRONTOGENESIS. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THIS AREA CENTERED NEARTHE VA/NC BORDER INSTEAD OF THE NC/SC BORDER FROM FRIDAY. THIS KEEPSWARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ISMOVING IN. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIALOUTSIDE OF THE MTNS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.HEAVY SNOW IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS INTHE NW FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS TUE NITE AS COLD AIRFILTERS IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW HEADING TO THE COAST. SNOW THEN MIXESIN ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT BY MORNING. PRECIP CHANGESBACK TO RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON WITH SNOW CONTINUINGOVER THE MTNS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE PASSING UPPER LOWSHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSNOW AT TIMES TUENITE. PRECIP ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS LATE WED WITH SNOW CONTINUINGOVER THE MTNS WED EVE BUT DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Seems there is a big difference between what WxSouth is saying for NC, at least north of 40, and what others are saying on here. Maybe he is looking more at the Euro. It does look further south than the GFS. And as others have said, still a lot of time to go. Not sure I can recall when the models latched onto something 4 days out and kept it that way and it ended up right. Just a little shift south will get more folks in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nothing good really happening with 18z NAM through 72. Maybe a touch slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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