March 5-6 Storm Discussion

[dwagner88]

Flurries in east Chattanooga.

[LithiaWx]

Hartsfield just had a gust of 49 mph in the past hour.

[Disc]

Some of these webcams might be fun to watch Wednesday. The Montebello one would be a good one..

 

http://brpwebcams.org/index.php

[eyewall]

The wind represents a ****ty winter blowing on by.

[1234snow]

Temp has dropped rapidly to 34 and the wind is absolutely ripping out there. The radar is looking good out west and alot of snow has broken out in the Valley where there is no advisory.

[Stovepipe]

Wow moderate snow now with probably the biggest flakes I've seen this season. Wind is whipping it around and the deck is starting to get white. Hoping we have an overachiever on our hands here.

[NCSNOW]

We are at 40.4˚ in Saluda, and it is completely clear. Temps have dropped about 3˚ in the last half hour. Also, was looking at 24 hour WV loop. I really thought the ULL would be turning more easterly by now. Looks to cross NC at the GA/SC boarder. Is it nowcasting further south than expected? Noticed the change in the flow to a southerly fetch in Indiana, wrap around starting?

 

Edit:...and five minutes later it up to 42.6˚... warm nose??

Just checked WV and the ULL appears to be heading SE trajectory still and right at where TN,KY,MO all meet at the current moment. I thought the ULL was supose to cross KY /WV and sorta miller B off the NE NC Coast around Elizabeth City. You can see the Block pushing back on the flow up off the NE coast. pretty neat to watch unfold. Hopefully the guys in Roanoke and mtns of TN and NC will cash in. Maybe a met can view WV and confirm the placement/axis of the ULL and tell me I'm seeing this right.

[deltadog03]

wow, good luck

 

I wish I could go up there, but Delta can't seem to get in the land-barge and make it north... I chase with Franklin and Bevo some though

 

 

UH HUH!!  LOL should we tell them about the 3 point turn we did trying to go up the mtn to Snowshoe??  lol  I need to make it up there yes sir!

[calm_days]

Just checked WV and the ULL appears to be heading SE trajectory still and right at where TN,KY,MO all meet at the current moment. I thought the ULL was supose to cross KY /WV and sorta miller B off the NE NC Coast around Elizabeth City. You can see the Block pushing back on the flow up off the NE coast. pretty neat to watch unfold. Hopefully the guys in Roanoke and mtns of TN and NC will cash in. Maybe a met can view WV and confirm the placement/axis of the ULL and tell me I'm seeing this right.

 

I do not fulfill being a met,

but, I do see that also, and came here to post about it too.  It will be great to hear some scholarly and professional thoughts, anyone's thoughts who is around, about what they think will happen. 

 

It is quite a tilt, just with not very much moisture wrapping yet. 

[Bevo]

PDO the last 5 years

 

2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.872009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.082010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.212011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.792012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.482013**  -0.14

 

What about March 09,Dec 09(neutral)Dec 10,Jan 11,Feb 11?All negative but still good winters here.Actually it looks like its trending close to neutral over the last couple months.I agree a positive gives a better chance but there are other factors at work in my opinion.

 

There have certainly been exceptions, but my point was that the flow during the last two winters have been epically fast and dominating.  We had some Ninos in those years you listed, which helped, but overall the biggest performers for this area have been from those dreaded ULL phantoms for the most part. 

[DCMetroWinston]

What is amazing to most here in DC/NoVA tonight, is that the high today was 53. It felt very balmy with moments of sunshine. It is still in the low 40's, yet the precip almost instantly changed to snow.  Local tv mets are saying snow totals for the DC metro area are gonna be raised. The rain transitioned to snow almost immediately.

[deltadog03]

There have certainly been exceptions, but my point was that the flow during the last two winters have been epically fast and dominating.  We had some Ninos in those years you listed, which helped, but overall the biggest performers for this area have been from those dreaded ULL phantoms for the most part. 

There will most def. be exceptions, and going forward there will be as well, BUT overall......The winter will SUFFER for us because of the -PDO cycle

[Jet Stream Rider]

This is still a somewhat unusual setup/dynamic.  Even those of us who won't be seeing snow will learn something/see some atypical dynamics interacting, when the system does start to strengthen, or when it might not wrap up or strengthen properly.

 

A Gulf flow to the storm circulation was blocked due to the Pacific moisture flow being pulled in between the storm and the Gulf... The huge occluded Atlantic complex is still stuck there instead of moving east as many models indicated.  The circulation of our continental storm is still getting squashed and is diving southeast.

 

 

There is a really strong pull to the southeast.  Based on the elongation of the system and the very unusual environment in which it is forming, I would say, maybe there will be at least one surprise.    I am not sure where, or what, just that the flow under the also very elongated Atlantic system is very strong and does not start to turn north until quite far out offshore.

 

The flow is very squashed and the energy with the ull very elongated, and it makes me curious as well. Hard to see the surface low develop much wrap around in that hostile environment.

[air360]

Personally I am hoping this storm defies the laws of physics, logic, and the models and drops down about 150 miles more to the S and gives eastern NC a nice snow...even if the temps are currently almost 60 here.

A guy can hope cant he?

[Bevo]

There will most def. be exceptions, and going forward there will be as well, BUT overall......The winter will SUFFER for us because of the -PDO cycle

 

Could you not get the Green Ranger to cooperate enough to get up here?  For shame CS.

 

Yeah - the -PDO is going to be an albatross for us I believe.  Hopefully we'll get a few more favorable ENSO states to help.  

[Jet Stream Rider]

Developing surface low in central NC.

 

But note that it is elongated, almost the dreaded double barrel that some models were showing last week. It will be interesting to see if a single low can consolidate and deepen off the coast now.

 

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Wraparound snow. Oh RAH, how you tease.

 

FOR WEDNESDAY: THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS AND WRAPAROUNDSNOW POTENTIAL. AS THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW ANDDEEPENS FURTHER OVER AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF VA... THETIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUMTRANSPORT ON ITS SW SIDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS OVERCENTRAL NC UP TO 20-25 MPH... AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH APPEAREASILY ATTAINABLE AS MODELS AGREE ON WINDS OF 40-45 KTS IN THE UPPERREACHES OF THE MIXED LAYER. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OFCENTRAL NC... EFFECTIVE FROM 6 AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MODELSHAVE WAVERED IN RECENT RUNS AS TO HOW MUCH WRAPAROUND CLOUDS ANDPRECIP WILL WORK INTO OUR AREA. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATESUFFICIENT MOISTENING TO A HIGH/COLD ENOUGH LEVEL TO TAP INTO THEICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT... HOWEVER THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR MAY BE TOOWARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. MULTI-MODELPROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE (UNDER 25%) OF ANINCH OF ACCUMULATION JUST NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER... IN LINE WITHEXPECTATIONS OF ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS THROUGHOUTWEDNESDAY... AS WELL AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES WHICH SIT IN THEINDETERMINATE AREA NEAR THE SNOW/RAIN MIX AREA. WILL STICK WITH ABRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WRAPPING AROUND THE VA COASTALSTORM... AFFECTING THE TRIAD IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO THENORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSYSURFACES IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES... BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVYBANDED SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY... THEREIS UNLIKELY TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OR RAPID-ENOUGH PRECIPRATES FOR ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATION IN OUR AREA.

 

In other words, "some guy in Roxboro/Roanoke Rapids will get a half-inch accumulation on his deck/pickup/pool cover and they will run the photo over and over on the news tomorrow morning and I will cry."

[dwagner88]

Moderate snow now here.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Looking at the national radar, the entire precipitation field from Chicago to Virginia Beach is pivoting. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

[Pilotwx]

ULL can play tricks on what you are seeing sometimes but it looks to me the the Ull is coming in a lot farther south than Prog. Maybe it's just me and I'm not focusing on the right part of the flow but Ric. Might still see a nice tumping of snow.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Wraparound snow. Oh RAH, how you tease.

 

FOR WEDNESDAY: THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS AND WRAPAROUNDSNOW POTENTIAL. AS THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW ANDDEEPENS FURTHER OVER AND JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF VA... THETIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUMTRANSPORT ON ITS SW SIDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SUSTAINED WINDS OVERCENTRAL NC UP TO 20-25 MPH... AND FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH APPEAREASILY ATTAINABLE AS MODELS AGREE ON WINDS OF 40-45 KTS IN THE UPPERREACHES OF THE MIXED LAYER. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OFCENTRAL NC... EFFECTIVE FROM 6 AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MODELSHAVE WAVERED IN RECENT RUNS AS TO HOW MUCH WRAPAROUND CLOUDS ANDPRECIP WILL WORK INTO OUR AREA. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATESUFFICIENT MOISTENING TO A HIGH/COLD ENOUGH LEVEL TO TAP INTO THEICE NUCLEATION ZONE ALOFT... HOWEVER THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR MAY BE TOOWARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. MULTI-MODELPROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE (UNDER 25%) OF ANINCH OF ACCUMULATION JUST NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER... IN LINE WITHEXPECTATIONS OF ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS THROUGHOUTWEDNESDAY... AS WELL AS PARTIAL THICKNESSES WHICH SIT IN THEINDETERMINATE AREA NEAR THE SNOW/RAIN MIX AREA. WILL STICK WITH ABRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WRAPPING AROUND THE VA COASTALSTORM... AFFECTING THE TRIAD IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO THENORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SECTIONS LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSYSURFACES IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES... BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVYBANDED SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY... THEREIS UNLIKELY TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR OR RAPID-ENOUGH PRECIPRATES FOR ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATION IN OUR AREA.

 

In other words, "some guy in Roxboro/Roanoke Rapids will get a half-inch accumulation on his deck/pickup/pool cover and they will run the photo over and over on the news tomorrow morning and I will cry."

 

We might luck out yet and see some fall. Even so, probably not stick though.

 

Welcome to the Forums!

[Teru Teru Bozu]

We might luck out yet and see some fall. Even so, probably not stick though.

 

Welcome to the Forums!

 

Thanks for the welcome! So I take it'll be like that thing we had in mid-Feb where there was 1/4" of slush on my car in the morning and nothing on the grass. 

 

I just saw that the statewide tornado drill is scheduled for tomorrow, so I'm gonna take that as a sign to go ahead and punt to the spring storm season. I am praying to the CAPE gods and sacrificing a pack of AA batteries to my handheld weather radio.

 

EDIT: oh, I see there's a little wraparound band coming through between KGSO and the Virginia line, but so far the obs there all indicate rain. Shucks.

[superjames1992]

The RAP has definitely been showing portions of northern NC some love for the morning.  We'll see if we end up with anything.  It would be nice to see some token flakes, but I'm not expecting anything.

[Jonathan]

Amazing. It's been raining here since 3:00pm yesterday. Started with a high of 57, now I've been at 39 since 7:00pm, haven't been a smidge lower at any point, even with heavy precip. It is now snowing 30 miles to my N and 20 miles to my W, and I'm still stuck in a cold rain.

 

Please make it stop. I'm over this winter. I bet it's rained and been 33-39 degrees at least 14 times this "winter".

[WilkesboroDude]

Blizzard conditions possible NC/TN mountains...special weather statements issued. 2 inches per hour / 50 miles per hour gusts.

[Jet Stream Rider]

X marks the spot. Upper level low over central Tennessee. Its rotating around the base and headed for the area of surface low pressure in central NC.

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

Low is south on current surface map here as well.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx?animate=true

[Cheeznado]

Just had a 20 min mini-blizzard in the Marietta/Smyrna area- heavy snow and gusts to 50. Over now, but really cool.

[GaWx]

Just had a 20 min mini-blizzard in the Marietta/Smyrna area- heavy snow and gusts to 50. Over now, but really cool.

Yeah, I just posted about it in the backyard obs thread. 50 mph here in Dunwoody, too (estimated), with several minutes of pouring snow! Absolutely awesome!! Accumulated some on deck railing and some grass. Light now, but what a treat!

[Thrasher Fan]

What a surprise!! I knew it paid off to stay up till 3 AM.