Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the GFS and EURO go back and forth on their performances in certain situations. One of the downsides to the GFS I think is that it runs 4 times per day. In the longer term, one might think that it is flopping around more than the EURO simply because there are twice as many runs to analyze. Statistics can be made to sound however the presenter wants to shade them (ala DT). I don't have an agenda and don't care which one is correct. I really don't think someone can say that one is clearly the BETTER model. Too subjective. And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Logic like that put a man on the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow. The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty. People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter. Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know, but some folks tend to hype things by the way they deliver their message. They might not even know they are doing it, though. Then they are not hyping it. You are inferring incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow. The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty. People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter. Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this? We'll have to remember that. Might help us to determine which model to really look at depending on the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow. He's back? I thought he left town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Then they are not hyping it. You are inferring incorrectly. No, just meaning they might not mean to do it, but it could be read that way depending on the words they use in the blog, posts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Or, don't hype things in your own mind when other people just discuss possibilities. Possibilities do not equate to certainties. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow. The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty. People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter. Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this? I wouldn't brag on either one. Three to four years ago we could see a storm on Euro 10 days out and it would verify. Now unless 48-72 hours and even then it can't be trusted. GFS sees a storm loses it brings it back then normally falls to euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow. The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty. People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter. Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this? yep, we have weighed... and weighed... and weighed some more we can only hope and wish the flow would slow the bleep down in coming years so we can get some quality digging without kicker systems coming in to screw things up Delta thinks we are in the midst of a 5-10 year pattern of a sh**** PDO, but I think a mega-volcanic eruption will get us where we want to be with a glacier rolling south and east... of course, with that comes famine, loss of life and chaos... I have tunnel-vision to snow though so those other factors are merely secondary JK, but time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the GFS and EURO go back and forth on their performances in certain situations. One of the downsides to the GFS I think is that it runs 4 times per day. In the longer term, one might think that it is flopping around more than the EURO simply because there are twice as many runs to analyze. Statistics can be made to sound however the presenter wants to shade them (ala DT). I don't have an agenda and don't care which one is correct. I really don't think someone can say that one is clearly the BETTER model. Too subjective. ...or too "apples to oranges". I wouldn't brag on either one. Three to four years ago we could see a storm on Euro 10 days out and it would verify. Now unless 48-72 hours and even then it can't be trusted. GFS sees a storm loses it brings it back then normally falls to euro It really hasn't "fallen to the euro" that often - except in split flow patterns. It's a misconception in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It really hasn't "fallen to the euro" that often - except (GFS does usually fold to the Euro) in split flow patterns. It's a misconception in my opinion. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How much snow is everybody getting tonight and tomorrow? I'm still trusting euro run from the other night to verify!!! 15 inches in N..Foothills!!! may come up a little short? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How much snow is everybody getting tonight and tomorrow? I'm still trusting euro run from the other night to verify!!! 15 inches in N..Foothills!!! Lol Buckeye was kind enough to loan me her sheet of black construction paper to see the flurry I am expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
air360 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 How much snow is everybody getting tonight and tomorrow? I'm still trusting euro run from the other night to verify!!! 15 inches in N..Foothills!!! may come up a little short? Lol What's snow? Down here in eastern NC the closest thing to snow we have seen or will see is the dandruff falling off of the kid walking past ya in the store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yep, we have weighed... and weighed... and weighed some more we can only hope and wish the flow would slow the bleep down in coming years so we can get some quality digging without kicker systems coming in to screw things up Delta thinks we are in the midst of a 5-10 year pattern of a sh**** PDO, but I think a mega-volcanic eruption will get us where we want to be with a glacier rolling south and east... of course, with that comes famine, loss of life and chaos... I have tunnel-vision to snow though so those other factors are merely secondary time will tell Yellowstone Lake is tilting about an inch per year or something like that. Could be trouble.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Post of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm torching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect. Post of the year. In Brick's defense, he is technically right. 2 points to HufflePuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm torching here. Yep got a feeling well wake up in the morning and be like upper 30s and raining lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey Burger not sure if anyone will answer me in the Ma thread busy times over there. Do you have access still to see what the QPF output was on the Euro run from last night it was basically the model yesterday still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight. It still has good amounts for your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just looking at the RAP from 17z. It shows a very nice slug of moisture coming into eastern TN tomorrow morning from around 4-7. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone pick up a quick couple of inches from this...................not to mention blasting the mountains with even more enhancement tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SVR or TOR watch coming.... (Someone alert Brick) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051911Z - 052115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO WRN GA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS AL AND SRN MS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN AND WRN GA BEFORE 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXISTED AS OF 19Z BUT GRADUAL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S F JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SHEAR ACTS ON THE UPDRAFTS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LOCALIZED SWATHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It still has good amounts for your back yard. Thanks man as usual really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SVR or TOR watch coming.... (Someone alert Brick) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051911Z - 052115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO WRN GA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS AL AND SRN MS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN AND WRN GA BEFORE 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXISTED AS OF 19Z BUT GRADUAL THETA-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S F JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SHEAR ACTS ON THE UPDRAFTS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LOCALIZED SWATHS This could be th emost interesting part of this system down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ... and there it is. SVR Watch for all of metro ATL and surrounding until 9 PM Eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey guys how much will the dewpoint matter once precip starts? My dew point has gone from 31 to 27 over the last couple hours. Temp is 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I should've went to JMU. -___- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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