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March 5-6 Storm Discussion


Poimen

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I think the GFS and EURO go back and forth on their performances in certain situations.  One of the downsides to the GFS I think is that it runs 4 times per day.  In the longer term, one might think that it is flopping around more than the EURO simply because there are twice as many runs to analyze.  Statistics can be made to sound however the presenter wants to shade them (ala DT).  I don't have an agenda and don't care which one is correct.  I really don't think someone can say that one is clearly the BETTER model.  Too subjective.

 

 And since it runs more often, the GFS has more chances to be incorrect.

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I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow.  The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty.  People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter.

 

Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this?

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I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow.  The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty.  People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter.

 

Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this?

 

We'll have to remember that. Might help us to determine which model to really look at depending on the flow.

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I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow.  The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty.  People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter.

 

Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this?

I wouldn't brag on either one.  Three to four years ago we could see a storm on Euro 10 days out and it would verify.  Now unless 48-72 hours and even then it can't be trusted.  GFS sees a storm loses it brings it back then normally falls to euro

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I'm not sure there's much question that GFS has out performed the Euro in this progressive/fast flow.  The Euro gets a couple of big ticket items right - in a split flow - and suddenly becomes the almighty.  People forget that the GFS has been damn good throughout this last year, not just winter.

 

Where's ColdRainStr8cash to weigh in on this?

 

yep, we have weighed... and weighed... and weighed some more

 

we can only hope and wish the flow would slow the bleep down in coming years so we can get some quality digging without kicker systems coming in to screw things up

 

Delta thinks we are in the midst of a 5-10 year pattern of a sh**** PDO, but I think a mega-volcanic eruption will get us where we want to be with a glacier rolling south and east... of course, with that comes famine, loss of life and chaos... I have tunnel-vision to snow though so those other factors are merely secondary :lmao:

 

JK, but time will tell

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I think the GFS and EURO go back and forth on their performances in certain situations.  One of the downsides to the GFS I think is that it runs 4 times per day.  In the longer term, one might think that it is flopping around more than the EURO simply because there are twice as many runs to analyze.  Statistics can be made to sound however the presenter wants to shade them (ala DT).  I don't have an agenda and don't care which one is correct.  I really don't think someone can say that one is clearly the BETTER model.  Too subjective.

 

...or too "apples to oranges".

 

I wouldn't brag on either one.  Three to four years ago we could see a storm on Euro 10 days out and it would verify.  Now unless 48-72 hours and even then it can't be trusted.  GFS sees a storm loses it brings it back then normally falls to euro

 

It really hasn't "fallen to the euro" that often - except in split flow patterns.  It's a misconception in my opinion.

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How much snow is everybody getting tonight and tomorrow? I'm still trusting euro run from the other night to verify!!! 15 inches in N..Foothills!!! may come up a little short? Lol

 

What's snow? Down here in eastern NC the closest thing to snow we have seen or will see is the dandruff falling off of the kid walking past ya in the store

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yep, we have weighed... and weighed... and weighed some more

we can only hope and wish the flow would slow the bleep down in coming years so we can get some quality digging without kicker systems coming in to screw things up

Delta thinks we are in the midst of a 5-10 year pattern of a sh**** PDO, but I think a mega-volcanic eruption will get us where we want to be with a glacier rolling south and east... of course, with that comes famine, loss of life and chaos... I have tunnel-vision to snow though so those other factors are merely secondary :lmao:

time will tell

Yellowstone Lake is tilting about an inch per year or something like that. Could be trouble.... :whistle:

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Hey Burger not sure if anyone will answer me in the Ma thread busy times over there. Do you have access still to see what the QPF output was on the Euro run from last night it was basically the model yesterday still giving me some decent accumulations for overnight tonight.

 

It still has good amounts for your back yard. 

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Just looking at the RAP from 17z.  It shows a very nice slug of moisture coming into eastern TN tomorrow morning from around 4-7.  I wouldn't be surprised to see someone pick up a quick couple of inches from this...................not to mention blasting the mountains with even more enhancement tomorrow morning.

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SVR or TOR watch coming.... (Someone alert Brick)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0111 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL...NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051911Z - 052115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND

ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO WRN

GA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS

AL AND SRN MS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN AND WRN GA BEFORE 00Z.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXISTED AS OF 19Z BUT GRADUAL

THETA-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F AND

DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S F JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...AS INSTABILITY

INCREASES AND SHEAR ACTS ON THE UPDRAFTS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS

MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE

WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LOCALIZED SWATHS

post-6398-0-39506100-1362510884_thumb.gi

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SVR or TOR watch coming.... (Someone alert Brick) MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0243   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0111 PM CST TUE MAR 05 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN AL...NWRN GA      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY       VALID 051911Z - 052115Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT      SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND   ORGANIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO WRN   GA. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.      DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS   AL AND SRN MS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN AND WRN GA BEFORE 00Z.   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS EXISTED AS OF 19Z BUT GRADUAL   THETA-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 F AND   DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S F JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.      STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW DEEPER WITH TIME...AS INSTABILITY   INCREASES AND SHEAR ACTS ON THE UPDRAFTS. A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS   MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SEVERE   WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LOCALIZED SWATHS

 

This could be th emost interesting part of this system down south.

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