Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS over all looks like it's OP run. Looks like it's a tad south though once it hits NC. Low goes over CLT to between ILM and Myrtle Beach. would love for this to dig around to ga sc then east to myrtle beach, would keep us on the north and northwest side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep, NC wants the low over WIL, some would prefer Myrtle Beach for optimum resukts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 At this point I am content with the models all agreeing there will be a storm...there will be much hand wringing over the track and honestly until this thing gets sampled some its going to move around run to run. I prefer to go into my Zen state at this point and just remind myself that what happens with this storm has already been decided and we are just waiting to watch it unfold, and in the end what will be will be, we will not know for sure until it actually happens so sit back and enjoy the ride. After this though can we please warm up and get severe storm mode going looking forward to chase season, need me some wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 would love for this to dig around to ga sc then east to myrtle beach, would keep us on the north and northwest side.are problem is we need this upper low to go just a littler farther south of us. And we also need it to go negative tilt sooner like the 18z gfs. The surface low for us would be better if it went thru central/eastern nc. Myrtle beach is too far east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro looks a hair south and a tad slower out to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No model is going to pinpoint exactly where the ULL will track. It could easily be 50 miles south to 50 mile north of what the models are saying on Tuesday. I've been in the prime spot of ULL's the day before according to the model and the ULL ended up going 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm kind of digging the look of the Euro at 5h compared to it's 00z run. It looks more conducive to at least a small shift south...not sure if it will matter in the end but we'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @54 slower and is a little south of the 00z run. We're talking wobbles here nothing large scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No model is going to pinpoint exactly where the ULL will track. It could easily be 50 miles south to 50 mile north of what the models are saying on Tuesday. I've been in the prime spot of ULL's the day before according to the model and the ULL ended up going 50 miles south.don't feel bad, I have never had an upper low work out for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 don't feel bad, I have never had an upper low work out for my area. Well maybe this one will work out for both of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 don't feel bad, I have never had an upper low work out for my area. Me either. They always seem to cut inland up through eastern NC. That seems like the preferred track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here is the diff in track compared to 00z. @60 the 12z had the center of the low over the center of the border of ND/SD. 00z @72 had it around 100 miles north of ND/SD border. @66 it looks more in line with 00z just a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No model is going to pinpoint exactly where the ULL will track. It could easily be 50 miles south to 50 mile north of what the models are saying on Tuesday. I've been in the prime spot of ULL's the day before according to the model and the ULL ended up going 50 miles south. Yep, there is always surprises with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @72 further south and slower. Really hope this translate to further south when it gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @78 it's closed off and in western Iowa. Compare that to 00z which closes it off in eastern IA @96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Me either. They always seem to cut inland up through eastern NC. That seems like the preferred track.well I prefer inland tracks as I am very far west. Its very hard for my area and yours to cash in on a big storm at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @96 still south. Probably not enough to save MBY but still this is gonna be south of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Burger, Did you pass out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Surface low at Day 4 just west of CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 @102 low is near ILM and this baby is cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From your descriptions, Burger, this could be a huge run for N NC. Good stuff ... thanks for the PBP, as always. You get the maps so fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Friday 12z run at 120 had it right over the Outer Banks. So, much slower, maybe a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Snow across much of NC between 102 and 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 From your descriptions, Burger, this could be a huge run for N NC. Good stuff ... thanks for the PBP, as always. You get the maps so fast! It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Va. is getting slammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It is. Does it still have that double barrel look with a weak secondary dieing over WV, or are we talking more of a dominant coming out of GA/SC to near ILM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Snow across much of NC between 102 and 108 nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Until this system hits land we may just be splitting hairs on these wobbles. Looking like a good storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 are problem is we need this upper low to go just a littler farther south of us. And we also need it to go negative tilt sooner like the 18z gfs. The surface low for us would be better if it went thru central/eastern nc. Myrtle beach is too far east for my liking. franklin what would be the best track to keep us here in wnc in mostly snow. even if it starts as rain what would be the best track to quickly turn it over to snow for wnc for the duration of the storm? I'd like to see at least 4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Does it still have that double barrel look with a weak secondary dieing over WV, or are we talking more of a dominant coming out of GA/SC to near ILM? Yes, it does. Edit: It is there at hr 96 and gone at hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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