March 5-6 Storm Discussion

[Buddy1987]

Gfs even more wet for SW VA on 51 hr total extends 1.5 QPF down this way solidly

Edit: Actually ROA is in the 1.75 like these last minute changes with the models.

[Dunkman]

Gfs even more wet for SW VA on 51 hr total extends 1.5 QPF down this way solidly

Edit: Actually ROA is in the 1.75 like these last minute changes with the models.

Sounds good...I know I won't get hit but I want someone who posts here to get buried.

[calculus1]

Virginia looks to do well on total precip.  Boston is going to get absolutely destroyed if the 00Z GFS is right:

 

[metalicwx366]

I wonder the same thing. All these folks talking about a great block was there. What happened? I guess it is just the weather doing what it wants t do.

Yeah what the hell happened to the block? What happened to it can't trend anymore due to the block to the north? I personally didn't think that could happen either.

[lilj4425]

I wonder the same thing. All these folks talking about a great block was there. What happened? I guess it is just the weather doing what it wants t do.

Don't look at me. I never said there was a block. Remember the discussion a few days ago from GSP calling for nothing but cold rain outside of the mountains? Hey look, they were right again. Isohume for the win. Systems in this area always trend north, drier, and warmer. People need to realize that once and for all.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Well clearly there was not enough suppression or the damn thing would be in the gom by now. The blocking seemed good, but I suspect there were larger patterns at play that somewhat negated it. Possibly the interaction with the Atlantic and Pacific moisture circulations that calm_days refers to.

[Met1985]

Well we might have a issue with ZR if the moisture gets in here quicker than forecast. Temps are falling fast in Weaverville 35.7° DP 20.7°. GSP made mention of a off chance.

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 945 PM...CIRRUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS EVENINGWITH SOME MID CLOUD...LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NRN MTNS...MOVING THRUAS WELL. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. IN FACT...THE LATEST SYNOPTICAND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SWRN MTNSTOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. THIS HASBEEN CONSISTENT SINCE THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POPOVERNIGHT TO THESE AREAS. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD TRUE...THEN CHC OFANY FREEZING PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BE VERY LOW AS THE COLDERVALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WILL HAVE TIME TO WARM BEFORESIGNIFICANT PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE LATE MORNING. IF PRECIP COMESIN EARLIER...THEN FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES GIVEN HOW COLDAND DRY THOSE OTHER VALLEYS ARE. IN FACT...A WORST CASE SCENARIOWOULD BE FOR THE PRECIP TO MOVE IN EARLY AND CONTINUE THRU THEMORNING LOCKING IN THOSE COLDER TEMPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECTTHAT TO HAPPEN...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC. IN FACT...HAVE SLOWEDPRECIP ACROSS ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING...THEN RUSH IT ACROSS THECWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Ya Don already down to 30 degrees here. Should be interesting tomorrow morning maybe.

 

Virginia looks to do well on total precip.  Boston is going to get absolutely destroyed if the 00Z GFS is right:

 

I really like were I am sitting in the mountains.

[beanskip]

If either the 0zGFS or 0z NAM are right, DT is going to bust by such gargantuan, biblical proportions, I don't know he will ever be able to shows his virtual face again on social media. He has all of Massachussets right now in 2-4 inches. Both the NAM and the GFS absolutely plaster most of the state with 10, 12, 16, 20-plus inches of snow!!! He'd be off by a factor of 6, 8 or more.

 

Also, both of these model runs give Richmond ZERO! He's got RIC in 2-4.

[Jet Stream Rider]

A water vapor loop, thanks to Jet Stream Rider for finding this great source, and, a satellite still image with slightly higher resolution:

 

(edit.  calculus1, Yes : )   The unisys animation is a perfect view for our storm! )

 

(i tried to save the animation  but was only able to save a single frame)

 

goes_overview_040313_02.png

 

There is a really strong flow going beneath the huge Atlantic system, at least for it to have been able to start attracting the Pacific moisture.

 

I think over the next twelve hours, that specific area, the southern flow under the Atlantic ULL, is going to matter quite a lot.  Maybe the storm we are watching will somehow affect the much larger system, but right now it is more of a bubble or pocket, while the Atlantic system has a lot of space to keep reforming a strong circulation somehow, even one that moved West into Maine today.

 

You are welcome. Yes, that Unisys gif is pretty good because it is an animated gif, so fairly small and easy to move about over the interwebs. Although the resolution isn't great, it gives one a general idea of the moisture and flow of the fluid dynamics.

 

I think you may be on to something with that retrograding Atlantic feature.

[WilkesboroDude]

brad panovich

[chapelhill]

rain, rain, rain. What was I wishing for? It's March now anyhow, (don't analog me NEmore) Enjoy the fluffy white you NW mtn folks, NE MA and about to be crushed again Bostonians. I'll still keep dreaming and waiting for the El Nino setup. It was a great learning experience. Thanks for all of your disco and pbp, Burger, Cold rain, etc. and Mr. Bob, hope you feel better soon. Should be nice and warm by Saturday. says... Nam did slow down and come south by 50 miles... but the towel is tossed, cliff has been dived, over and out. Preesh.At least DT has some crow to chew on.

[John1122]

MRX upgraded all their Eastern tier to winter storm warnings, saying 6+ easily for the mountains. Left me hanging with a watch because they think we have warning potential (4+ in 12 hrs) but aren't sure.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Don't look at me. I never said there was a block. Remember the discussion a few days ago from GSP calling for nothing but cold rain outside of the mountains? Hey look, they were right again. Isohume for the win. Systems in this area always trend north, drier, and warmer. People need to realize that once and for all.

 

 

well good for them, although I can't tell you or anyone else of one forecast outlet (media or otherwise) which put accumulating snow in the forecast within the last 3-4 days... outside of the NC mountains that is

 

much of the hype ahead of this system should have been toned down to a LARGE degree... even though that sounds like I'm being a stick in the mud, but really, why get hopes up too high so early?

 

upper lows aren't as magical and life-altering as they are portrayed a lot of times even though I understand how it's fun to track these systems... the more I forecast them, the more I respect how challenging they are to predict... ultimately, a bunch more people end up with a cold rain than those with accumulating snow, so it's no real surprise a mythical "block" didn't set up northeast of us and change everything for us... as long as the flow isn't favorable west and northwest of us (pacific influence), it doesn't really matter the upstream pattern

 

that makes me think... we haven't had a single, expansive winter storm setup to track in the short-range since January of 2011, or have we?!  I don't think we have... that's cruel

[Jet Stream Rider]

We have somewhat of a loose consolidation of low surface pressure in the general vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. And a helicity max just south of there.

 

 

[NavarreDon]

well good for them, although I can't tell you or anyone else of one forecast outlet (media or otherwise) which put accumulating snow in the forecast within the last 3-4 days outside of the NC mountains

 

much of the hype ahead of this system should have been toned down to a LARGE degree... even though that sounds like I'm being a stick in the mud, but really, why get hopes up too high so early?

 

upper lows aren't as magical and life-altering as they are portrayed a lot of times even though I understand how it's fun to track these systems... the more I forecast them, the more I respect how challenging they are to predict... ultimately, a bunch more people end up with a cold rain than those with accumulating snow, so it's no real surprise a mythical "block" didn't set up northeast of us and change everything for us... as long as the flow isn't favorable west and northwest of us (pacific influence), it doesn't really matter the upstream pattern

 

I think they suck!.....unless of course I happen to be to the NW in a deform band. Really have enjoyed your posts Andy, hope you plan on sticking around!

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

I think they suck!.....unless of course I happen to be to the NW in a deform band. Really have enjoyed your posts Andy, hope you plan on sticking around!

 

Don, I have always been a fan of yours buddy... even though you hardly log onto our blog anymore

 

& I plan to stuick around at times

 

I hope you get a surprise 3-6" accumulation in Weaverville tonight & tomorrow

[NavarreDon]

Don, I have always been a fan of yours brother... I plan to

 

I hope you get a surprise 3-6" accumulation in Weaverville tonight & tomorrow

 

Thank you Sir! It would take the really bad taste for winter that I have right out of my mouth.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Thank you Sir! It would take the really bad taste for winter that I have right out of my mouth.

 

 

yeah it would!

 

I meant to ask... how much snow (total) have you picked up in Weaverville during the last two winters (if you have kept up with that)? 

 

compared to your two-year average, it has to be very low

 

oops, I just noticed you keep a log of it under your name in your IMBY stats

[franklin NCwx]

Looks like a 1' plus for the Smokies and the high peaks of the Balsams. It would be great if the parkway was open to 4x4 vehicles. Waterrock knob would be a great chase spot.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Looks like a 1' plus for the Smokies and the high peaks of the Balsams. It would be great if the parkway was open to 4x4 vehicles. Waterrock knob would be a great chase spot.

 

we chasing again? 

 

maybe you can... too bad I have to get up at 2am

[franklin NCwx]

we chasing again? 

 

maybe you can... too bad I have to get up at 2am

Hard to do right now. I'm really busy at work. Besides they have the Parkway closed. I bet it would be epic to experience a good upslope event above 6000 ft!

 

Edit: We could all ride up to met85 place.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Hard to do right now. I'm really busy at work. Besides they have the Parkway closed. I bet it would be epic to experience a good upslope event above 6000 ft!

 

Edit: We could all ride up to met85 place.

 

yessir

 

ok, I'm done replying to every post... Mods don't ban me

[NCSNOW]

Looks like a 1' plus for the Smokies and the high peaks of the Balsams. It would be great if the parkway was open to 4x4 vehicles. Waterrock knob would be a great chase spot.

My favorite place to go hang out in college. Never forget coming home after finals on like May 3rd or so one year and it was raining mostly in Cullowhee, went by the exit to get on the parkway there and it was a foot of snow. Snowed over 50 inches up on Pisgah during that storm

[franklin NCwx]

My favorite place to go hang out in college. Never forget coming home after finals on like May 3rd or so one year and it was raining mostly in Cullowhee, went by the exit to get on the parkway there and it was a foot of snow. Snowed over 50 inches up on Pisgah during that storm

It's amazing the difference there. It's really another world above 3500 on that chain compared to the surronding areas.

[K4CF]

Hard to do right now. I'm really busy at work. Besides they have the Parkway closed. I bet it would be epic to experience a good upslope event above 6000 ft!

 

Edit: We could all ride up to met85 place.

 

Although quite a jog from Franklin, head up to Carver's Gap parking lot below Roan Mountain...5512' and open all year...Take NC 261 North out of Bakersville, NC or TN 143 out of Roan Mountain, TN

[Cold Rain]

Regarding the blocking issue that Frosty and Brick brought up before (i.e. where is all the great blocking?), I think the answer to that is in the word "great". It's all about the adjectives.

Over the past few years (and this seems to get worse every year), there seems to be some sort of contest for labeling modeled things -- blocking, upper lows, surface lows, upper forcing, etc. -- with the most outlandish adjectives to describe them. Words like "historic", "destructive", "rare", "devastating", "huge", "catastrophic", "super strong", etc. are thrown around to describe things that, most of the time, turn out fairly ordinary from a climo perspective. Sandy and the big NE snowstorm are two events that come to mind that were actually worthy of some of those descriptions.

Those words get used in a blog, on TV, in a weather analysis somewhere, and the spread like the plague through the weather community, leaving a path of weenie destruction in their wake when things don't pan out to the "historic" degree that was modeled 7 days out.

It's fun to look at a 7 day model chart and see 20" of snow in your back yard. I love it. And we all get wound up about it and go through all the PBP and get all excited, and then, guess what? Yep, everything normalizes in reality and we're left wondering why it's raining and where the block went and why does winter suck so bad.

A 552 block is not a historic thing. And you have to take into account other things like its orientation, its movement with time, ridging out west, orientation of energy diving into the area, movement of energy around the block, etc. None of those things are going to be modeled accurately 7-10 days out....not even 48 hrs out sometimes.

Part of being on these boards and avoiding disappointment is to understand that the super strong, historically rare, destructively catastrophic things hardly ever pan out. If we get caught up in the adjectives without remaining grounded in that concept, then we will continue to be disappointed and remain without understanding when the historically strong blocking doesn't work out, even though there was a small potential for it to at some point.

As far as DT goes, he's probably going to be wrong again. That's ok because we're all wrong sometimes. His problem is, jerkness aside, is he speaks in absolutes, which is the most foolish thing you can do in weather. I can count at least three times this winter where he said it was physically impossible for a storm to go north, but it did anyway. When you combine his absolute assertions with his childish behavior, you get the result that we see on his FB page. It's unfortunate, because the guy is smart.

Anyway, those are my thoughts for the day. Have a good one everybody, and congrats to any that see snow!

[calm_days]

You are welcome. Yes, that Unisys gif is pretty good because it is an animated gif, so fairly small and easy to move about over the interwebs. Although the resolution isn't great, it gives one a general idea of the moisture and flow of the fluid dynamics.

 

I think you may be on to something with that retrograding Atlantic feature.

 

It is still there this morning and being pushed to the south-southeast by a huge air pocket.  It can't move very fast...  Dynamics that are able to move Atlantic ULLs that large and occluded has seemed to typically be: somewhere to go to the east in the Atlantic that does not contain a second large occluded ULL system...

and/or a large, significant polar or continental low moving towards it.  Neither of those conditions are met.

 

I really can't tell what will happen to our small storm as it continues to partially run into the huge wall created by the stuck Atlantic low, and approaches the strong moisture flow exiting the continent over the southeast.  It seems to me that it could be pulled into a contorted shape and then pulled along the south side of the huge ULL, but, that is a very amateur guess. 

 

in here:  Unisys water vapor animation and NOAA water vapor still.

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Regarding the blocking issue that Frosty and Brick brought up before (i.e. where is all the great blocking?), I think the answer to that is in the word "great". It's all about the adjectives.

Over the past few years (and this seems to get worse every year), there seems to be some sort of contest for labeling modeled things -- blocking, upper lows, surface lows, upper forcing, etc. -- with the most outlandish adjectives to describe them. Words like "historic", "destructive", "rare", "devastating", "huge", "catastrophic", "super strong", etc. are thrown around to describe things that, most of the time, turn out fairly ordinary from a climo perspective. Sandy and the big NE snowstorm are two events that come to mind that were actually worthy of some of those descriptions.

Those words get used in a blog, on TV, in a weather analysis somewhere, and the spread like the plague through the weather community, leaving a path of weenie destruction in their wake when things don't pan out to the "historic" degree that was modeled 7 days out.

It's fun to look at a 7 day model chart and see 20" of snow in your back yard. I love it. And we all get wound up about it and go through all the PBP and get all excited, and then, guess what? Yep, everything normalizes in reality and we're left wondering why it's raining and where the block went and why does winter suck so bad.

A 552 block is not a historic thing. And you have to take into account other things like its orientation, its movement with time, ridging out west, orientation of energy diving into the area, movement of energy around the block, etc. None of those things are going to be modeled accurately 7-10 days out....not even 48 hrs out sometimes.

Part of being on these boards and avoiding disappointment is to understand that the super strong, historically rare, destructively catastrophic things hardly ever pan out. If we get caught up in the adjectives without remaining grounded in that concept, then we will continue to be disappointed and remain without understanding when the historically strong blocking doesn't work out, even though there was a small potential for it to at some point.

As far as DT goes, he's probably going to be wrong again. That's ok because we're all wrong sometimes. His problem is, jerkness aside, is he speaks in absolutes, which is the most foolish thing you can do in weather. I can count at least three times this winter where he said it was physically impossible for a storm to go north, but it did anyway. When you combine his absolute assertions with his childish behavior, you get the result that we see on his FB page. It's unfortunate, because the guy is smart.

Anyway, those are my thoughts for the day. Have a good one everybody, and congrats to any that see snow!

 

this is very well said... spot on

 

read and then re-read

[Met1985]

Hard to do right now. I'm really busy at work. Besides they have the Parkway closed. I bet it would be epic to experience a good upslope event above 6000 ft!

 

Edit: We could all ride up to met85 place.

Bring it. Haywood will be rocking tomorrow for sure. I will make sure to keep everyone updated. Would not surprise me if parts of the county get over a foot with this system. I now some great spots to really test your 4X4.

[franklin NCwx]

Although quite a jog from Franklin, head up to Carver's Gap parking lot below Roan Mountain...5512' and open all year...Take NC 261 North out of Bakersville, NC or TN 143 out of Roan Mountain, TN

that is a long haul. There is a good spot in macon county at 5400ft I can get to. They should get 4-6. I know a few spots in Haywood county. The balsam range along the macon jackson line seems to always cash in.