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March 5-6 Storm Discussion


Poimen

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The cities are in trouble BL wise if the GFS verefies. Just NW outside espeacilly DC who knows. I'm betting this ULL ends up producing 8-12 across the apps wva, VA Maryland and a big fail the closer one gets to the shore. DC has zero wiggle room IMO. They better pray the Euro OTS verefies, because the GFS solution will throw to much Atlantic air over them the way its being depicted.

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If it's not south enough to get us back in the game, let it go north and cream Boston again.

 

It's not even south enough to get DT back in the game but it's enough for him to start beating the drum. But hey 00z NAM Hi-Res actually has a snow shower coming just north of ATL!

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Keep in mind that you are looking at panels that are three hours apart, but they have six-hour precip totals.  I didn't really see any wintry precip for NC outside of the mountains on the 00z NAM.  Mind you, it did tick a bit south early on, but we're going to need to resurrect Mao and let him give us another Great Leap Forward to see anything here.

 

There is some negligible precipitation along the border counties in eastern NC with 850s below freezing, but surface temps would probably turn that over to light rain/drizzle.

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I got one little ole question!  WHERE"S ALL THAT GREAT BLOCKING??? I mean there's no way this thing can go north right? I've heard the word blocking so much I'm sick of it... See the block? double blocking, banana block, rex block, etc.... I have heard all of them mentioned in the last week!!! I think what we really have is a block centered over the southeast.... It's called a snow block.

I wonder the same thing. All these folks talking about a great block was there. What happened? I guess it is just the weather doing what it wants t do.

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Well we might have a issue with ZR if the moisture gets in here quicker than forecast. Temps are falling fast in Weaverville 35.7° DP 20.7°. GSP made mention of a off chance.

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 945 PM...CIRRUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS EVENINGWITH SOME MID CLOUD...LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NRN MTNS...MOVING THRUAS WELL. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. IN FACT...THE LATEST SYNOPTICAND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE SWRN MTNSTOWARD DAYBREAK WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. THIS HASBEEN CONSISTENT SINCE THE 18Z GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED POPOVERNIGHT TO THESE AREAS. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD TRUE...THEN CHC OFANY FREEZING PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK WILL BE VERY LOW AS THE COLDERVALLEYS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WILL HAVE TIME TO WARM BEFORESIGNIFICANT PRECIP ARRIVES DURING THE LATE MORNING. IF PRECIP COMESIN EARLIER...THEN FREEZING PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASES GIVEN HOW COLDAND DRY THOSE OTHER VALLEYS ARE. IN FACT...A WORST CASE SCENARIOWOULD BE FOR THE PRECIP TO MOVE IN EARLY AND CONTINUE THRU THEMORNING LOCKING IN THOSE COLDER TEMPS UNTIL AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECTTHAT TO HAPPEN...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC. IN FACT...HAVE SLOWEDPRECIP ACROSS ALL AREAS DURING THE MORNING...THEN RUSH IT ACROSS THECWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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