packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just to add more fuel to the GFS/Euro debate, this from NOAA up in NJ.... TO PREFACE THE DIRECTION WE ARE GOING... THE ECMWF HAS GENERALLY NOTBE STELLAR INSIDE OF DAY 5...SINCE THE SANDY EVENT FOR OUR AREA... ANDIN MY OPINION...AT LEAST FOR THIS AREA...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLESAS WELL AS THE SREF ARE BETTER PREDICTORS FOR OUR WEATHER. THATSAID... I AM EXPECTING THE ECMWF TO TREND NORTH IN FUTURE CYCLESAND COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING WHAT SHOULDBE A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM FOR OUR AREA AND GOOD FORTUNE THAT ITSNOT STALLING A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR COAST. THE 12Z UKMET HAS EDGEDNORTH. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I only have the Euro mslp/precip maps, but it's about the same through 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @42 Euro is slightly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Leaves NC pretty dry in terms of snow with maybe an exception to NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro is basically going to hold, maybe 25 miles north, nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Small movement north for 12z run, but overall it's still pretty close to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Calm_days, you consistently post these images, and I can't figure them out at all. I can't even see any land under these clouds, so I have no reference points at all. Lolllllll I say the same thing to myself. Give him credit tho for trying to incorporate different images and what not for the storm. Here are reference points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Like packbacker mentioned.. nothing like the GFS. Misses NE completely with the exception to light snow on the tip of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Like packbacker mentioned.. nothing like the GFS. Misses NE completely with the exception to light snow on the tip of Cape Cod.Does it hold QPF for our area. That's what Blacksburg is banking on. Nam still wasn't awful for us. This is absolutely unbelievable to think an event is about to be underway soon and yet they are night and day. I would hate to be forecasting for Blacksburg wfo because of the lack of true agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does it hold QPF for our area. That's what Blacksburg is banking on. Nam still wasn't awful for us. This is absolutely unbelievable to think an event is about to be underway soon and yet they are night and day. I would hate to be forecasting for Blacksburg wfo because of the lack of true agreement. Probably enough for a marginal snow event. 4-8" snow maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably enough for a marginal snow event. 4-8" snow maybe. Marginal 4-8?! If we were to get even 4 I'd be happy because the Gfs was atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well this about sums up my winter! WITH THE WEAKEN DYNO...THERMAL TIMING...AVG SF RATIOS...ANDUNFAVORABLE LLVL FLOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ADJ DOWN A LITTLE INTHE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z WED. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS DECENT EVIDENCE THATWARNING CRITERIA SNOW SHOULD ACCUM ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND THESMOKIES...BALSAMS...AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET BTW 00ZWED AND 00Z THU. AS FAR AS BUNCOMBE COUNTY GOES...THEY SHOULD SEELITTLE ACCUMS IN THE VALLEY...PERHAPS UPWARDS TO AN INCH...WITHWEAVERVILLE AND THE HIGHER ELEVS RECEIVING MAYBE 2 INCHES.THUS...BUNCOMBE WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH AND HANDLED WITH ANADVISORY IF NEEDED. THE WATCH FOR ALL THE OTHER ZONES STILL LOOKSGOOD AND WILL BE LEFT AS IS FOR TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man at 36 on the 18z nam if we could get the temp right that would be some crazy heavy snow in a 6 hour period can someone check to see what my temp would be during that? 850 line is right on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know we're all depressed here in North Carolina that we won't get much snow (except the high country)...but given just how dynamic this storm is going to be...how about a gusty thunderstorm or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 323 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 NCZ033-048>052-058-059-052030- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- 323 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. $$ GAZ010-017-NCZ053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-052030- RABUN-HABERSHAM-BUNCOMBE-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 323 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. $$ GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508- 510-SCZ004>014-019-052030- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN- CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD- EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE- SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC- CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 323 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From RAH: FOR WEDNESDAY: ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDEDSNOW AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SE VA EARLY TO THE ENE TO OFFDELMARVA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BASED ON THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE850-700 MB LOW AND FRONTOGENESIS... THE MOST INTENSE BANDED SNOWFALLSHOULD HOLD OVER WRN/CENTRAL VA INTO MD/DC/SE PA... ALTHOUGH THETAIL END OF SUCH A BAND COULD CERTAINLY BRUSH ACROSS THE VA/NCBORDER COUNTIES TO AREAS NORTH AND NE OF ROCKY MOUNT. MID LEVELLAPSE RATES OVER 6.0 C/KM WRAP AROUND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC (AS DOESA 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET)... THUS THERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FORUPRIGHT CONVECTION FROM OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THENORTH/NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know we're all depressed here in North Carolina that we won't get much snow (except the high country)...but given just how dynamic this storm is going to be...how about a gusty thunderstorm or two? Snow or nothing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How did the EPS Control look? And why did I just ask that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe just unrealistic late season hope talking here but I do not share in the kill all and welcome spring vibe here. Yeah its obvious now that most of us won't get a block buster storm but with the way this season has gone none of us should be upset with atleast the potential of a few flakes. Not to mention were not talking a 500 mile shift. Realistically 150 miles would change a lot. Remember christmas of 2011..was modeled as a hit until 48 hours out. Then suddenly lost it..we all gave up on it till about 24 hours later when were normally throwing models out the gfs and nam both made a massive adjustment and a lot of us had a decent storm. We will see, but no way I cliff dive 34+ hours out with a relatively small adjustment needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How did the EPS Control look? And why did I just ask that? It is ok haha. Might as well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM trended waaaaaaaay north and west -- oddly, no mention of it on DT's FB page ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM trended waaaaaaaay north and west -- oddly, no mention of it on DT's FB page ... Hell yea it did looks like my family is gonna get nailed in CT now Gfs and nam have gone bonkers up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This almost reminds me of the March 2001 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Remind me -- big NC mountain snow, right? Late in the month? This almost reminds me of the March 2001 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z NAM trended waaaaaaaay north and west -- oddly, no mention of it on DT's FB page ... Turns out the map yesterday was his first guess map. Today is his first call map. Watch out. From what I heard a few weeks ago it would surprising if we did not end up with above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Remind me -- big NC mountain snow, right? Late in the month? No, that was the one that was supposed to be a huge event for us. Then VA, then PA, then NYC...it didn't stop trending north until Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh yes -- I do remember. I know everybody else already figured this out, but I swear it just dawned on me during this storm that the "north" trend isn't arbitrary -- it's simply climatological. Of course everything is going to trend toward the warmer climate being warmer! Wish I wasn't so slow sometimes .... No, that was the one that was supposed to be a huge event for us. Then VA, then PA, then NYC...it didn't stop trending north until Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man at 36 on the 18z nam if we could get the temp right that would be some crazy heavy snow in a 6 hour period can someone check to see what my temp would be during that? 850 line is right on top of me. Looking at the soudings, we're torching at 36. We switch over to snow between hour 38/39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 hate to break it to DT but the euro control gets pretty good snow up to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro Control shows another good potential on March 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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