March 5-6 Storm Discussion

[beanskip]

The thing so annoying about DT is that he wastes some excellent forecasting skills by becoming the global apologist for the European model and the designated attack dog for the GFS. He ends up spinning every model run as a supporter of the Euro or denegrator of the GFS. I don't get why that becomes so important to him.

If the GFS verifies, DT's days as a forecaster are over.

[packbacker]

The thing so annoying about DT is that he wastes some excellent forecasting skills by becoming the global apologist for the European model and the designated attack dog for the GFS. He ends up spinning every model run as a supporter of the Euro or denegrator of the GFS. I don't get why that becomes so important to him.

 

He isn't alone with that thought process.... I have mentioned several times this winter the GFS has verified much better over the Euro and people get all bent out of shape on our SE forum.  The GFS was SE of every model for Sandy, but it wasn't 300 miles SE it was 50-100 miles and the NE crew just crucified it, they started a thread on WTF was wrong with GFS.  Now they are model hugging the GFS like it's there last meal.

[Disc]

If the GFS is right, NE can have that 2 feet of heavy wet snow. I enjoy having power and a roof.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

It's not coming south, it's all rain in Richmond, solidly all rain.  It's not even about south anymore, several things would have to change.  It's going to be amazing watching the other models fall inline, I actually feel terrible for the Richmond folks, 24 hours ago this was a record winter storm now it's all rain.  

 

YES!  Delta & I are pulling for sideways rain in Richmond for ole DT

this is the only reason I'm still paying attention

[DCMetroWinston]

I do like DT's coining of the term "snow perverts" last night.

[msuwx]

The GFS has been pretty strong in this area this Winter. In fact, it's led the way with some systems.

I would still give the overall edge to the Euro, but the GFS isn't the complete whipping boy it used to be.

[beanskip]

Yeah, I must admit, even though I'm done, I've never been most interseted (albeit morbidly) in what happens up there -- if he busts badly, it will be an epic meltdown.

YES!  Delta & I are pulling for sideways rain in Richmond for ole DT

this is the only reason I'm still paying attention

[Cold Rain]

GFS better with fast Pac flow? I dunno.

Ukie/Gem out yet, or do they just suck so bad that nobody is mentioning them?

I hope DT gets a shower then dryslotted.

[Jet Stream Rider]

wv loop and current mesoscale analysis shows this sytem somewhere near the North Dakota/South Dakota boarder. It seems to be moving slow and is way north. Further, upper air flow looks to be becoming more zonal. Any chance this thing does not move nearly as far south as previously thought? That would put nearly all the mid Atlantic out of the game.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130303&endTime=-1&duration=12

 

[Southern Track]

I ventured on to DT's Facebook page the other day, and was amazed how he talked to people on there. He's telling people to Eff off and using every four letter word he can. I hope his forecast does blow up in his face.

[packfan98]

If I'm remembering correctly, wasn't the GFS the model that first picked up on those Lee Side Trough enhancement this winter?  If so, that's pretty impressive for a lower resolution model.

[burgertime]

wv loop and current mesoscale analysis shows this sytem somewhere near the North Dakota/South Dakota boarder. It seems to be moving slow and is way north. Further, upper air flow looks to be becoming more zonal. Any chance this thing does not move nearly as far south as previously thought? That would put nearly all the mid Atlantic out of the game.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130303&endTime=-1&duration=12

 

I think in that case it may be more likely to interact with some northern energy which would possibly lend it to have a better orientation letting it wrap up better as it exits off the coast. Don't think it's going to totally miss the MA. 

[Bevo]

GFS better with fast Pac flow? I dunno.

Ukie/Gem out yet, or do they just suck so bad that nobody is mentioning them?

I hope DT gets a shower then dryslotted.

 

I've thought so for a while now.  In a split flow however, I might be inclined to give the Euro a nod first.

[jburns]

I ventured on to DT's Facebook page the other day, and was amazed how he talked to people on there. He's telling people to Eff off and using every four letter word he can. I hope his forecast does blow up in his face.

That's it? It must have been Sunday. He's a lot worse during the week.

[NCStateMMY]

I ventured on to DT's Facebook page the other day, and was amazed how he talked to people on there. He's telling people to Eff off and using every four letter word he can. I hope his forecast does blow up in his face.

 

I unfollowed him on Facebook because of that.  He is very good at forecasting.  If he could just lose the emotional chip on his shoulder, he could be so much better.

[Jet Stream Rider]

I think in that case it may be more likely to interact with some northern energy which would possibly lend it to have a better orientation letting it wrap up better as it exits off the coast. Don't think it's going to totally miss the MA. 

 

Thanks Burger. Yeah, looking at the RAP out about 12-18 hours I can see that, and a west coast ridge that should cause it to dig a little. But geeeze, to think we need it south of Oklahoma, not skirting the Great Lakes lol.

[calculus1]

Whatever does happen, it is a unique system of interactions.  The continental low is being affected by the Pacific offshore lows (one is not included in the image, off to the west) and Atlantic offshore low/block structure.  There is a lot of interference all at once. 

 

Slight changes in each of these systems each day may affect eachother.  The Pacific onshore flow that is underneath the continental low is being pulled into the Atlantic offshore system. 

 

goes_overview_040313_01.png

 

Calm_days, you consistently post these images, and I can't figure them out at all.  I can't even see any land under these clouds, so I have no reference points at all.

[NCSNOW]

He isn't alone with that thought process.... I have mentioned several times this winter the GFS has verified much better over the Euro and people get all bent out of shape on our SE forum.  The GFS was SE of every model for Sandy, but it wasn't 300 miles SE it was 50-100 miles and the NE crew just crucified it, they started a thread on WTF was wrong with GFS.  Now they are model hugging the GFS like it's there last meal.

What are you talking about in regards to Sandy. The GFS had that storm heading way OTS by 100's of miles, while the Euro had a NE landfall for 5 straight days out going into NE. You keep throwing out incorrect information about the GFS being better than the Euro every day. Yes the GFS has improved, yes the GFS scores the coup over the Euro every once in a while. But its still the bridesmaid by a long ways to the euro.

[tarheelwx]

I believe the euro to be better with the big ticket storms. This should be a big ticket storm.

TW

[Buddy1987]

Calm_days, you consistently post these images, and I can't figure them out at all.  I can't even see any land under these clouds, so I have no reference points at all.

Lolllllll I say the same thing to myself. Give him credit tho for trying to incorporate different images and what not for the storm.

[Buddy1987]

I believe the euro to be better with the big ticket storms. This should be a big ticket storm.

TW

Idk man Gfs has been solid since last night now with this different sort of track although the Euro hasn't wavered much. Sucks for southern va tho because idk if I'm getting an inch or 8

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

I ventured on to DT's Facebook page the other day, and was amazed how he talked to people on there. He's telling people to Eff off and using every four letter word he can. I hope his forecast does blow up in his face.

 

 

yep, I don't get how he treats people he has never met with so much animosity

 

to keep this post forecast-related, Ali has DT's forecast below:

 

........................................................ thanks Ali

[SN_Lover]

yep, I don't get how he treats people he has never met with so much animosity

 

to keep this post forecast-related, Ali has DT's forecast below:

 

........................................................ thanks Ali

I go to his page for comical relief...hes banning people left and right and his followers are helping him cuss people out. it's like a mob 

[Brick Tamland]

I go to his page for comical relief...hes banning people left and right and his followers are helping him cuss people out. it's like a mob 

 

 His followers? I think Fox has a new show about that.

[wake4est]

 His followers? I think Fox has a new show about that.

 

Raising Hope?

 

Fringe?

 

Hell's Kitchen?

[packbacker]

What are you talking about in regards to Sandy. The GFS had that storm heading way OTS by 100's of miles, while the Euro had a NE landfall for 5 straight days out going into NE. You keep throwing out incorrect information about the GFS being better than the Euro every day. Yes the GFS has improved, yes the GFS scores the coup over the Euro every once in a while. But its still the bridesmaid by a long ways to the euro.

 

Wrong, and thanks for proving my point.  I don't have time to argue this or really care, take a look at the thread and you can see for yourself, the GFS was SE, but not "100's of miles" which would imply 300+ miles.  For my area the GFS was fairly good for all three events we had, the Euro was not even close on two of them.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39285-so-what-the-hell-happened-with-the-gfs/#entry2109353

[franklin NCwx]

Raising Hope?

 

Fringe?

 

Hell's Kitchen?

When the weather turns?

[Brick Tamland]

Raising Hope?

 

Fringe?

 

Hell's Kitchen?

 

I was talking about The Following, but those would work, too.

[Poimen]

Although not likely to be a big deal, the extreme northern Piedmont/coastal plain of NC may still see some snow during the day Wednesday in a deformation band. That feature still cannot be ruled out for the border counties especially.

[Jet Stream Rider]

^ Yeah, I agree. Particularly the northeast coastal plain.