superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RAH: SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 420 AM MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE BELOW TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD FOR WINDS.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSEWEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY. THEAPPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE 850MB SLY FLOW BY MID DAYAND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN INITIALLY FALLINGTHROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING ANDAN IN-SITU CAD EVENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THIS CADSHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND MAY BE EASILY SCOURED OUT BYSTRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT MAX TEMPS FOR THEDAYLIGHT HOURS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSETO SUNSET. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE POTENTIALFOR THE IN-SITU CAD...BUT DID ADJUST MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES FROMPREVIOUS FORECAST.NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF850MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT AXISOF MODERATE RAIN TO SET-UP ALONG THIS FEATURE. FARTHERSOUTH...EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. MID LEVEL LAPSERATES STILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 DEG C/KM BY 00Z WED. THUS THE IDEAOF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING STILLAPPEARS PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING WHEN MID LEVEL TROUGHAND SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. WHILE KINEMATICS SUPPORTIVE OF THEPOTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION...LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITYWILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER ATTRIBUTES WITH THE CONVECTION AT THISTIME. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY... SHOWING THESURFACE LOW INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR THE COASTAL REGION BY 12ZWEDNESDAY... WITH THE 500 MB LOW QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ANDINTO THE SAME GENERALLY AREA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWFHAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY (WITH LITTLEIF ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NOW AFTER 12Z)... WITH THE SLIGHTJOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW... ALLOWING MORE OF ADRYING NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVELLOW. HOWEVER... IT STILL APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PRECIPFILL BACK IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH STEEPENINGLAPSE RATES AND A POSSIBLE DEFORMATION BAND EXTENDING ACROSS OURNORTH/NORTHEAST (WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO THENORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA). THE GFS BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF THESYSTEM LIFTING OFF/MEANDERING MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON/NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH MORE OF ABLEND OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY NIGHT... AS WE THINK THE BLOCKING HIGH ALOFT ACROSS SECANADA SHOULD HELP PREVENT A MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TRACK (WHICHTHE GFS HAS). THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS CRASHING ANDSUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF (WHERE PRECIP ISEXPECTED AND SATURATION RETURNING INTO THE -10 TO -20 LAYER C) OFCENTRAL NC WE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW (POSSIBLY AT FIRSTMIXED WITH RAIN... DEPENDING ON TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ANDLOCATIONS OF THE DEFORMATION BAND ALONG WITH SATURATION ALOFT)...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTALPLAIN. GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE MAIN TIME FRAME FORACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BEING WEDNESDAY MID/LATE MORNING INTO THEAFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH ATTHIS TIME. HOWEVER... IF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THEDEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING THROUGH OUR NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIESTHEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAYBE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROXBOROTO LOUISBURG TO ROCKY MOUNT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SNOW...WNW TO NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND BECOMESMORE VERTICALLY STACKED ON WEDNESDAY. THUS... THINK WE COULD SEEWINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE SUSTAINED... WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS30 TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY... WHICH COULD CREATE LOW VISBYS IN AREAS OFSNOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT... WITH THE PRECIP ACROSSTHE NORTHEAST... WITH SKIES EVEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT A BIT ACROSS THEFAR SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL YIELD A NON-DIURNAL TREND.THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30SNORTH/NORTHEAST TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH/WEST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TOSLOWLY CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING... WITHPOSSIBLY THE TREAT OF SOME BLACK ICE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROMTHE LOWER TO MID 30S. -BSD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the CAFUM model needs to replace theNAM. What ya think Andy? Just make sure you guys wipe off the hash brown grease so it doesn't get misread. Ham chunks are still suspected of being the cause of the January ULL misunderstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RAH seems pretty optimistic that we'll have at least some snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lmao Kevin! I guess a WF visit is needed for any snow in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 good Q just like you and MSUWx, I think a lot of good info can be gathered from comparing/contrasting medium and some long-range panels as long as the person looking for comparisons isn't doing so for the purpose of trying to resolve individual details or outcomes yep, since Instantwxmaps archives A LOT of old panels from previous days, I normally compare and contrast the 12z today with the 0z from last night and even go back 24-hours to compare the 12z today with the 12z yesterday (sometimes go back 36 & 48 hours if looking for a true trend)... this works very well with the understanding that Euro maps are spaced in 24-hour increments... obviously when you don't have paid access to the Euro I wasn't kidding when I mentioned in an earlier post that I stay away from the NAM out past 36-hours and stay away from the Canadian, NoGaps, DGEX & of course the malfunction junction model or JPA (which throws precip all over the map in places it has no business appearing) this (ignoring several models) really does lessen expectations as it never fails that one of those models will throw a bone to all of us putting a 990mb powerhouse just east of the GA coast and have it crawling along with some good 500mb forcing coming in behind it... ultimately spitting out a panel showing a foot of snow for all of the Carolinas and Georgia... LIES, Ain't Nobody Got Time Fo That I don't like quoting myself, but I must say... what I typed above will go in one ear and out the other similarly to what a meteorologist says in most forecasts for television people read/hear ONLY what they want to hear nobody wants to hear the truth that most of these forecast models are **** ... most love to immerse themselves in the glimmer of hope that a crazy-uncle Canadian run showing a March 93 setup 7-days out has a chance spare yourself the let-down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Couple features are a little more sharp in and around the NW Atlantic at 6 on the Gfs no idea what that'll translate to down the run hopefully something at least respectable for my parts. Edi: well comparing it to the Nam anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Couple features are a little more sharp in and around the NW Atlantic at 6 on the Gfs no idea what that'll translate to down the run hopefully something at least respectable for my parts. Edi: well comparing it to the Nam anyhow. Just looks to me out to 30 so far the GFS may end up a tick or two south of the 6z and 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RAH seems pretty optimistic that we'll have at least some snow around here. Mainly to your northeast I suspect Brick. But yeah, you are far enough east that you might see something on the backside in Wake Forest. We need it to deepen and slow down though once its off the coast I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs looks colder and a little more wet thru 33 low in Ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the CAFUM model needs to replace theNAM. What ya think Andy? boom, it is DONE my friend maybe you need to make a trip up here so we can get to Sapphire National this upcoming weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Damn GFS sucks not nearly as juicy as the NAM this run wouldn't give us nearly anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 boom, it is DONE my friend maybe you need to make a trip up here so we can get to Sapphire National this upcoming weekend That place looks amaaaaaazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This sums up this storm rather well. The 12z blows the storm up off the coast just enough to give wrap around to central and eastern VA and stops exactly at the border of NC/VA. Destroys DC and creeps north enough to put the NE in the game. Probably give 4-8 from NJ up into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This sums up this storm rather well. The 12z blows the storm up off the coast just enough to give wrap around to central and eastern VA and stops exactly at the border of NC/VA. Destroys DC and creeps north enough to put the NE in the game. Probably give 4-8 from NJ up into VT. How much further south would it need to go to put NC in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well QPF total is pretty close to the nam for my area just don't know how much of that would be rain however prolly a good chunk I don't have access to soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How much further south would it need to go to put NC in the game? Seriously? He literally said the precip stops at the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seriously? He literally said the precip stops at the NC/VA border. Yes, just wondering how far it would have to move for NC to really get a good hit. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How much further south would it need to go to put NC in the game? It's not coming south, it's all rain in Richmond, solidly all rain. It's not even about south anymore, several things would have to change. It's going to be amazing watching the other models fall inline, I actually feel terrible for the Richmond folks, 24 hours ago this was a record winter storm now it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, just wondering how far it would have to move for NC to really get a good hit. Seriously. It's 263 miles from the epicenter of the GFS snow to your town. It might as well be 2 million miles, because it isn't coming south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's 263 miles from the epicenter of the GFS snow to your town. It might as well be 2 million miles, because it isn't coming south. Hahahahaha! Word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am going to enjoy watching DT fight off the masses, he has drawn a line in the sand that the GFS is wrong, way wrong and he isn't backing off. We should know shortly, the UK/GGEM should be out in the next 10 mins. The DC crew have to start sweating, they are mixing like crazy on the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well QPF total is pretty close to the nam for my area just don't know how much of that would be rain however prolly a good chunk I don't have access to soundings. Sounding at 39hrs wouldn't be snow. (Almost looks like sleet or freezing rain) Starts to switch to snow around 42hrs as the heavier precip is beginning to exit our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It snows for 48 hours in Boston on the GFS. 3.5" of QPF of wet snow, it would be roof collapsing, not a tree standing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Whatever does happen, it is a unique system of interactions. The continental low is being affected by the Pacific offshore lows (one is not included in the image, off to the west) and Atlantic offshore low/block structure. There is a lot of interference all at once. Slight changes in each of these systems each day may affect eachother. The Pacific onshore flow that is underneath the continental low is being pulled into the Atlantic offshore system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's 263 miles from the epicenter of the GFS snow to your town. It might as well be 2 million miles, because it isn't coming south. So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS verifies, DT's days as a forecaster are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ugh!.....I am done with this nonsense & on to spring. I look for GSP to drop the WSW & go with a WWA for the current area exluding Buncombe....maybe a Warning for the N Mnt counties due to synoptic & nwfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS verifies, Boston is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS verifies, Boston is over. It would be a disaster, two historic/epic storms exactly a month a part, unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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