March 5-6 Storm Discussion

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Well the NAM looks better for you guys it made about a 50 mile shift SE going into NC.  Now if only it could keep that shift going until tomorrow morning and shift about 500 miles SE 

 

 

and there it is... we are down to holding out hope for a medium range panel on the N(ever)A(again)M(odel) to lead us to glory

 

..................................... jk, but seriously this sucks

[Buddy1987]

@48hr it still crushes DC. I'm sorta ready for this to get here so I can get this nuisance event over with.

Still better tho than the 6z which sucked its def more southwest with its precip shield and looks closer to 0z just not as heavy with the qpf

[Buddy1987]

Disc look at QPF total off the Nam at 54. It went from like 1/2" to 1.25 def more wet and more euroish with regard to precip totals. Those purples are inching closer too man. Lynchburg is now over 1.5

[Disc]

Still better tho than the 6z which sucked its def more southwest with its precip shield and looks closer to 0z just not as heavy with the qpf

Verbatim, we get 1-2" maybe 3 here in the valley from 12z NAM.  It doesn't switch to snow until 45hrs. I'd cut those QPF totals in half for what is snow..

[Brick Tamland]

You can't trust model details in the medium range. You can, however, glean a lot of info from them. 

 

IMO, this has been a very well-modeled storm for quite a while. Adjusting the track within a couple hundred miles from a week out is more than reasonable. 

 

So, if you took one model solution from last week and latched on to the idea of "it's going to snow 6" in GSO," then yes, that didn't work out. 

 

However, if you use the models as the tools they are and said "there will likely be a significant storm system impact the mid-Atlantic and/or upper Southeast," then that certainly worked out.

 

 

Good post. But you are wasting your time. It aint getting in there, no matter how hard we all try.

The models HAVE done remarkably well with this storm, from a general standpoint. There is simply no way one can claim otherwise.

 

I guess I should have been more detailed in my post, too. Yes, generally they can help show the potential for something. What I meant is you can't really trust them that far out in the details and track. I know that. I was hoping the blocking and ULL would be stornger liked the models showed a week ago.

[Bevo]

and there it is... we are down to holding out hope for a medium range panel on the N(ever)A(again)M(odel) to lead us to glory

 

..................................... jk, but seriously this sucks

 

Yep - when someone ask me what I think about the latest run of that model, I just shake my head and reply "Never Again Man."  I'm still butthurt from that January ULL.

[Disc]

Buddy, I hope I eat my words, but I'm not feeling very confident now about getting a big snow.. I'll wait for the Euro before I totally give up.

[Cold Rain]

yessir ... kicker systems coming in on the west coast truly do kick us in the nads every single time it seems

as an aside, I could not have picked a better person to name myself after

you, sir, are a legend!

Lol! Thank you, sir. Now, deformation bands for everyone!

On another note, I was curious as to whether it makes more sense, when comparing the NAM/GFS to previous runs (looking for trends), to compare them to the nearest 0Z or 12Z runs vs the nearest 6Z or 18Z runs. Like the 12Z NAM today, I was comparing to the 0Z, not he 6Z,and it resulted in about the same outcome as the 0Z.

Just wondering what folks thought the best practice should be around that.

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Yep - when someone ask me what I think about the latest run of that model, I just shake my head and reply "Never Again Man."  I'm still butthurt from that January ULL.

 

I give all credit to Bevo for that name

[packbacker]

The models are determined to model this storm just far enough north to give NC a goose egg and just far enough south to give the MA a historic storm.  What a way to end, this so reminds me of Dec 2009 storm.

 

What is this, like the 5 historic storm for the MA in the past 4 years.

[Shawn]

Well, upstate SC is mainly out for sure, parts of NC/VA/even DC could have rain or a nasty mix while 25 miles away there's a blizzard.  Man.  This Winter was NOT good for most of us.

[deltadog03]

I wonder if DT is still calling for that much snow in the Triad? He sticking to the new NAM? Lol we all better get used to crappy winters, cuz the PDO ain't flipping for awhile.

[Shawn]

I wonder if DT is still calling for that much snow in the Triad? He sticking to the new NAM? Lol we all better get used to crappy winters, cuz the PDO ain't flipping for awhile.

 

We have to rely on good timing.  The Pacific is really making it 10x harder to get much down in the SE.  Prob. stuck with it for another 5 years.  I'm getting older now and I'm running out of time to still be "young" to see a beast storm down here in SC.

[Buddy1987]

Verbatim, we get 1-2" maybe 3 here in the valley from 12z NAM.  It doesn't switch to snow until 45hrs. I'd cut those QPF totals in half for what is snow..

Idk man at 42 the 850 line is right over us and there is intense precip falling I'm sure with dynamical cooling we'd switch over to heavy snow that is stickier than Elmer's. plus in the 6 hours that follow we pile up a good 1/2 inch if not a little more.

[packbacker]

I wonder if DT is still calling for that much snow in the Triad? He sticking to the new NAM? Lol we all better get used to crappy winters, cuz the PDO ain't flipping for awhile.

 

It sure seems that we are going to have to get used to this type of winter, although I much prefer last winter, warm and not-snowy to this winter.

[burgertime]

Lol! Thank you, sir. Now, deformation bands for everyone!

On another note, I was curious as to whether it makes more sense, when comparing the NAM/GFS to previous runs (looking for trends), to compare them to the nearest 0Z or 12Z runs vs the nearest 6Z or 18Z runs. Like the 12Z NAM today, I was comparing to the 0Z, not he 6Z,and it resulted in about the same outcome as the 0Z.

Just wondering what folks thought the best practice should be around that.

 

I usually compare to the previous run but sometimes I have three tabs open to flip back to say the 00z if I'm looking at the 12z to see if there really is a trend. I prefer doing one run back just because I feel like you're looking more in real time instead of 12 hours back if that makes sense. 

[deltadog03]

Ya I mean snow is still possible in winters where the PDO is crud. What initially gave this year potential was the weak to mdt niño. Hat could counter acted the -PDO. Obviously the niño didn't work out.

[packbacker]

You can see why the NAM is starting to push north, just look at the 0z versus the 12z....

 

0z NAM

 

 

 

12z NAM

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

Lol! Thank you, sir. Now, deformation bands for everyone!

On another note, I was curious as to whether it makes more sense, when comparing the NAM/GFS to previous runs (looking for trends), to compare them to the nearest 0Z or 12Z runs vs the nearest 6Z or 18Z runs. Like the 12Z NAM today, I was comparing to the 0Z, not he 6Z,and it resulted in about the same outcome as the 0Z.

Just wondering what folks thought the best practice should be around that.

 

good Q

 

just like you and MSUWx, I think a lot of good info can be gathered from comparing/contrasting medium and some long-range panels as long as the person looking for comparisons isn't doing so for the purpose of trying to resolve individual details or outcomes

 

yep, since Instantwxmaps archives A LOT of old panels from previous days, I normally compare and contrast the 12z today with the 0z from last night and even go back 24-hours to compare the 12z today with the 12z yesterday (sometimes go back 36 & 48 hours if looking for a true trend)... this works very well with the understanding that Euro maps are spaced in 24-hour increments... obviously when you don't have paid access to the Euro

 

I wasn't kidding when I mentioned in an earlier post that I stay away from the NAM out past 36-hours and stay away from the Canadian, NoGaps, DGEX & of course the malfunction junction model or JPA (which throws precip all over the map in places it has no business appearing)

 

this (ignoring several models) really does lessen expectations as it never fails that one of those models will throw a bone to all of us putting a 990mb powerhouse just east of the GA coast and have it crawling along with some good 500mb forcing coming in behind it... ultimately spitting out a panel showing a foot of snow for all of the Carolinas and Georgia... LIES, Ain't Nobody Got Time Fo That

[Jet Stream Rider]

Last week when we had the blocking with active southern branch setup, there was a chance for some energy to form a surface low along the gom and creep east and then northeast up the coast creating a big hit for us in the Southeast. Basically a chance for a Miller A system.

 

When that clearly was not going to happen we were left with really only a ghost of a chance; the ULL. We all know that the ULL has to track south of you to get snow. Thats still only a ghost of a chance for basically all of us, but its interesting to track. And maybe some of us get wrap around/deformation band at the end. Best chance of that imo is northeast NC and of course on up into VA and points north. Looks like the NC and VA mountains will get some snow though as well.

[Bevo]

Well, upstate SC is mainly out for sure, parts of NC/VA/even DC could have rain or a nasty mix while 25 miles away there's a blizzard.  Man.  This Winter was NOT good for most of us.

 

Upstate SC never really rounded turn four in this scenario I'm afraid. 

 

But I will say that for me (the Upstate in general) - it wasn't a bad winter.  Considering that I saw snow falling on three different occasions (one that left me with just under 3"), it was 300% better than last.  Add to the mix that it was just cold enough to have to run the heat, but not so cold that my grossly undersized HVAC couldn't keep up, plus we are well ahead of the rain totals (although this area - truthfully - was never really behind), I can't see a lot to complain about.  This will forever be the winter of pulling the blue tongue.

[Cold Rain]

I guess I should have been more detailed in my post, too. Yes, generally they can help show the potential for something. What I meant is you can't really trust them that far out in the details and track. I know that. I was hoping the blocking and ULL would be stornger liked the models showed a week ago.

If you would just put, "I hope it snows" and "Seems like you can't trust the models more than 24 hours out" in your signature, you wouldn't have waste so much time and energy retyping those things all the time.

You could also add, "If it's going to be cold and dry, I'd rather it just be warm" and "We always get our hopes up with these storms and they never seem to work out anymore", if you wanted to.

[Brick Tamland]

The models are determined to model this storm just far enough north to give NC a goose egg and just far enough south to give the MA a historic storm.  What a way to end, this so reminds me of Dec 2009 storm.

 

What is this, like the 5 historic storm for the MA in the past 4 years.

 

We seem to be either too far south or too far north for snow the last two winters. I really don't see why central NC would not see more snow than we do. I would think we are far enough north and close enough to the Atlantic to get some decent snow every year. But I guess not.

[Brick Tamland]

It sure seems that we are going to have to get used to this type of winter, although I much prefer last winter, warm and not-snowy to this winter.

 

Yes, there were so many days this winter with rain and temps in the 40s. It was pretty miserable.

[Shawn]

Upstate SC never really rounded turn four in this scenario I'm afraid. 

 

But I will say that for me (the Upstate in general) - it wasn't a bad winter.  Considering that I saw snow falling on three different occasions (one that left me with just under 3"), it was 300% better than last.  Add to the mix that it was just cold enough to have to run the heat, but not so cold that my grossly undersized HVAC couldn't keep up, plus we are well ahead of the rain totals (although this area - truthfully - was never really behind), I cann't see a lot to complain about.  This will forever be the winter of pulling the blue tongue.

 

The models advertised some nice looking storms this year.  I guess I meant to say it sucked in comparison to what could have been in some situations.  I did see thundersnow for the first time in my life for Lexington, SC.  That wasn't too bad I guess.  Maybe we can get another Hurricane Hugo to track here in a couple months.  I don't want the damage that it caused again on the coasts though.  The rain tables are pretty good here, definitely above average for Feb.. hopefully that will help out when the hot-spells get to SC in the coming months.  Maybe someone can get a deformation band on this last little gasp of winter in NC.  Only time will tell.

[DCMetroWinston]

CWG is calling this storm Snowquester:

 

 

Capital Weather Gang

 

Latest NAM model shows big snow hit for DC Wed: http://ow.ly/i/1Cw19 #Snowquester

[Bevo]

The models advertised some nice looking storms this year.  I guess I meant to say it sucked in comparison to what could have been in some situations.  I did see thundersnow for the first time in my life for Lexington, SC.  That wasn't too bad I guess.  Maybe we can get another Hurricane Hugo to track here in a couple months.  I don't want the damage that it caused again on the coasts though.  The rain tables are pretty good here, definitely above average for Feb.. hopefully that will help out when the hot-spells get to SC in the coming months.

 

I was actually thinking yesterday - and it will probably make a good segue back to the Discussion thread - that if this coming summer follows the same pattern from last year, we could possibly have two straight summers with overall below normal temps in a large area of the SE.

 

Very similar situation in that last Spring, Summer and Fall followed an impressively mild winter (and in my case rainy) where the fast PAC dominated.  I would not be opposed to it.

[Jet Stream Rider]

^^ It certainly looks to be a snowquester for most of the southeast.

 

Poor name though for DC if they think they are getting a snow storm.

[Cold Rain]

good Q

just like you and MSUWx, I think a lot of good info can be gathered from comparing/contrasting medium and some long-range panels as long as the person looking for comparisons isn't doing so for the purpose of trying to resolve individual details or outcomes

yep, since Instantwxmaps archives A LOT of old panels from previous days, I normally compare and contrast the 12z today with the 0z from last night and even go back 24-hours to compare the 12z today with the 12z yesterday (sometimes go back 36 & 48 hours if looking for a true trend)... this works very well with the understanding that Euro maps are spaced in 24-hour increments... obviously when you don't have paid access to the Euro

I wasn't kidding when I mentioned in an earlier post that I stay away from the NAM out past 36-hours and stay away from the Canadian, NoGaps, DGEX & of course the malfunction junction model or JPA (which throws precip all over the map in places it has no business appearing)

this (ignoring several models) really does lessen expectations as it never fails that one of those models will throw a bone to all of us putting a 990mb powerhouse just east of the GA coast and have it crawling along with some good 500mb forcing coming in behind it... ultimately spitting out a panel showing a foot of snow for all of the Carolinas and Georgia... LIES, Ain't Nobody Got Time Fo That

Thanks to you and Burger for the response. Makes sense. Instinctively, I will usually just look at the 0s and 12s for trends-in-details comparisons because I feel like the off-runs just add more noise than anything else. I do look at them, though. But I guess the proper way to use them is to look at them in the context of reviewing several previous run cycles, which I don't really do.

As far as the other models, I look at all of them....but then, I don't have to issue forecast products, so I can be a and hug the one that gives me some snow.

Anyway, it's good to get context around how people use the various products. Always much learning to be done.

[deltadog03]

I think the CAFUM model needs to replace theNAM. What ya think Andy?