March 5-6 Storm Discussion

[Poimen]

You can still see hints of a deformation band on the GFS that scrapes the northern tier of NC. We do need the storm to slow down/stall for a while along the coast for this to really hit us hard in central NC (unless the whole thing shifts south). Either way, still plenty of time.

[msuwx]

GFS is definitely going with a VA event. Disaster for snow lovers in NC. The 850 low crosses the northern border counties.

I'd say it looks pretty good for VA border areas of NC as well. 

[packbacker]

It's not going further north. If anything, it will shift further south. I really think northern Wake up 85 into VA will be in a good spot.

 

What we really need is the UK position at hour 96, SLP off NC/SC coast and than for it to trickle NE from there, that would get alot more people.

[franklin NCwx]

It's not going further north. If anything, it will shift further south. I really think northern Wake up 85 into VA will be in a good spot.

your just wishcasting now.

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth said north of 40 in NC will get big snow, too.

 

 

‎12z GFS trends slightly north. Big Wed. #snow #vawx #ncwx #obx north of I-40 NC to #dcwx

 

[packbacker]

The one good thing on the GFS, over the past few runs it's been a tick slower to move the trough out of the way that is currently over us.  But, it hasn't been translating to a further south trek just yet.

[eyewall]

I'd say it looks pretty good for VA border areas of NC as well. 

 

Yeah perhaps but overall if the GFS were to verify this would not be much of an NC event overall. Definitely not the "season saver" for most of the Triangle.

[mackerel_sky]

+1 you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out!

it sounds like some of the models are starting to pick up on a shift south, guess time will tell, we need this thing to dig a little more just to the west of the apps before it comes east, hopefully across central sc.

I don't think you want to be in the sweet spot right now, not close enough to the event, from past experience.

[Brick Tamland]

your just wishcasting now.

 

We'll see. I am still north of 40. And I think when it is all said and done it will shift south a little bit.

[franklin NCwx]

We'll see. I am still north of 40. And I think when it is all said and done it will shift south a little bit.

if your not going to add any analysis, then you should replace " I think" with " I wish".

[eyewall]

Well I am being told the UKMET and CMC have come south a bit so model disparity is good for NC right now lol.  As a friend said we will see what happens once it is in the RAOB network.

[WeatherNC]

12z UKMET is pretty suppressed, surface ~ MYR/ILM at 96hrs, well OTS at 120, not even sure if it has gained enough latitude to be north of HAT at day 5, congrats Bermuda.

[packbacker]

To me the GGEM looks identical to the GFS, just slower.

 

[tarheelwx]

Anyone got the 00z euro snow map for NC? If you can't post, can you give a detail? Want to be ready to identify trends as 12z comes in. At this time, trends are the most important and the 12z gfs was not good. Many thanks.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

Probably wont have definite track till monday

[Tacoma]

Well I am being told the UKMET and CMC have come south a bit so model disparity is good for NC right now lol.  As a friend said we will see what happens once it is in the RAOB network.

yea hopefully this will trend south a little more, there has been to many times nc was in the best spot 3 or 4 days out and the models shifted on  us a day or two before the storm.

[WeatherNC]

 

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1059 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2013VALID 12Z TUE MAR 05 2013 - 12Z SAT MAR 09 2013...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST WILL FEATURE TWO DOMINANT SYSTEMS OFINTEREST.  THE WRN SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH PROGRESSINGFROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO/THRU THE WEST WITH SOME SEPARATION OFFLOW LIKELY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  FARTHER EWDDEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO TRACK FROM NEAR THE S-CNTRL MSVLY/TN VLY EWD INTO THE ATLC.  SOME ASPECTS OF INDIVIDUALOPERATIONAL MODELS COULD MERIT INCLUSION WITHIN A DETERMINISTICBLEND FOR SOME LOCATIONS... BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RAISES ENOUGHQUESTION MARKS ABOUT MODEL DETAILS TO FAVOR LEANING TOWARD THE 00ZGEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7TUE-SAT FCST.  THIS SOLN OFFERS REASONABLY GOOD CONTINUITY GIVENTHE RECENT AND CURRENT VARIABILITY AND SPREAD OF OPERATIONALMODELS.

 

OVER RECENT DAYS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANTSPREAD AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURETRACKING EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC.  MULTIPLE SOURCES OFUNCERTAINTY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS BEHAVIOR... TIMING/LATITUDEISSUES WITH THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS AS WELL ASVARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION WITH MID LVL ENERGY THAT MAY BELINGERING OVER/NEAR THE GRTLKS AS WELL AS ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGYOVER/NEAR NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE MOMENT THE MOST NOTABLE TREND SEENIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IS TOWARD SHOWING LESS INFLUENCE FROM THEEXTRANEOUS PIECES OF ENERGY AND EMPHASIZING STEADY EWD PROGRESSIONOF THE INITIAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  THE 00Z CMC IS THE ONE MODELSTILL SHOWING SOME EXTERNAL INFLUENCE CAUSING ITS WRN ATLC CLOSEDLOW TO WOBBLE FARTHER NWD.  FROM THE MULTI-DAY PERSPECTIVE AN AVGOF THE LATEST 00Z GEFS/ECMWF MEANS PROVIDE THE MOST STABLE SOLNFROM THE ERN CONUS THRU THE WRN ATLC.  NOTE THAT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWFARE ON THE SWRN SIDE OF THE 00Z GEFS/EC/CMC ENSEMBLE SFC LOWCLUSTERING DURING WED-THU.  THE 06Z GEFS SHOWS A FAVORABLE TRENDTOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE ERN PAC SYSTEM TRACKING INTO/THRU THE WEST WILL SPREAD A BROADAREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD... EXTENDING INTOPORTIONS OF THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS BY DAY 7 SAT AS GULF INFLOWBEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONT OVER THE PLAINS BY THATTIME.  EXPECT HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ALONG THE CNTRL WEST COAST TUE-WEDWITH SOME OF THIS MSTR STREAMING NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIESTHEREAFTER.  LATER IN THE PERIOD EXPECT MSTR TO REACH THESOUTHWEST/GRTBASIN.  AS PCPN DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THECNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND AREAS E/SE BY SAT... TEMPS MAY GET COLDENOUGH FOR WINTRY PCPN IN THE NWRN PART OF THIS AREA.SYSTEM TRACKING EWD FROM NEAR THE TN/MS VLY INTO THE WRN ATLCSHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOWFALL TO THE NW/N OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. WHAT SNOW OCCURS SHOULD BE RATHER WET GIVEN LOW LVL TEMPS EXPECTEDTO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE THAN THE SNOW FCST... EXPECT SOMELOCATIONS TO SEE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THUALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE WRN ATLC. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUSIN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM... MODERATING BY LATE WEEK INTO THEWEEKEND.RAUSCH

 

[MillerA]

0zgfs at 120 hours, since someone asked earlier. 

[MillerA]

12zgfs114. There is only a smidge more showing up on 140 from winston-to the west on earlier panels, but not much.

[msuwx]

12z GEM did wobble it's track to the south some. Difference takes place over the Plains. Look at this vorticity digging around the west and then south sides of the upper low....that helps the system to dig south more. 

[mackerel_sky]

Is that allready 4 contours over W TN/ARK? That is looking good and strong,S trend is your friend!

12z GEM did wobble it's track to the south some. Difference takes place over the Plains. Look at this vorticity digging around the west and then south sides of the upper low....that helps the system to dig south more.

500vty_f084_bg_US.png

[Cold Rain]

Question:  It's been my thinking that if the blocking in Canada is modeled stronger, then that would help the system track farther to the south.  Is that correct?  Or is it really more about the shape/strength of the system?

[WidreMann]

Anyone got the 00z euro snow map for NC? If you can't post, can you give a detail? Want to be ready to identify trends as 12z comes in. At this time, trends are the most important and the 12z gfs was not good. Many thanks.

TW

00z Euro shows swaths of 1-3" over several 6 hour periods across the northern piedmont, perhaps totally to 8"+ near the VA border and closer to 1-3" in the southern Triangle and south of there.

[WilkesboroDude]

0z EURO snowfall has INTENSE downsloping punching through near Shelby, NC...shooting up through Yadkin County,NC.

 

3 inches for the mountains

3-6 Raleigh north

6-12 VA/NC for the CENTRAL border 

[superjames1992]

0z EURO snowfall has INTENSE downsloping punching through near Shelby, NC...shooting up through Yadkin County,NC.

 

3 inches for the mountains

3-6 Raleigh north

6-12 VA/NC for the CENTRAL border 

 

Granted, I haven't seen the detailed maps, but I don't really think it's downsloping, Wilkes.  It looked to have more to do with the fact that when the Coastal Low blew up, it didn't get any further west than the foothills ... similar to 1/25/00 in that regard.

 

Anyways, these are going to be some trying times over the next few days.  A small shift in the track could be the difference between some "cute" backside snow and a winter storm of epic proportions.  The 12z GFS wasn't a disaster here, but it was too far north for my liking.

[WilkesboroDude]

Granted, I haven't seen the detailed maps, but I don't really think it's downsloping, Wilkes.  It looked to have more to do with the fact that when the Coastal Low blew up, it didn't get any further west than the foothills ... similar to 1/25/00 in that regard.

 

Anyways, these are going to be some trying times over the next few days.  A small shift in the track could be the difference between some "cute" backside snow and a winter storm of epic proportions.  The 12z GFS wasn't a disaster here, but it was too far north for my liking.

 

Well let's just say it has more snow for north GA than it does Statesville,NC. Very large triangle hole shooting up the foothills and western Piedmont. 

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/598984_578842695461842_1166234778_n.png

[NCSNOW]

Granted, I haven't seen the detailed maps, but I don't really think it's downsloping, Wilkes.  It looked to have more to do with the fact that when the Coastal Low blew up, it didn't get any further west than the foothills ... similar to 1/25/00 in that regard.

 

Anyways, these are going to be some trying times over the next few days.  A small shift in the track could be the difference between some "cute" backside snow and a winter storm of epic proportions.  The 12z GFS wasn't a disaster here, but it was too far north for my liking.

40 mile shift south, maybe less puts u and me in wsw. 60-80 mile shift south and we won't even have to sweat it, just sit back and enjoy

[Tacoma]

12z GEM did wobble it's track to the south some. Difference takes place over the Plains. Look at this vorticity digging around the west and then south sides of the upper low....that helps the system to dig south more. 

500vty_f084_bg_US.png

as mathew east said the shape of the storm if stronger on the west and south side will cause the storm to move further south, which the models are starting to show this,  this is also Hopecasting.  but it is showing this shape now which would cause it to dig further south.

[packbacker]

The NAVGEM is a tick south from the GFS and 6 hours slower, hits northern wake county really good, what a difference 50 miles makes. It also does that little SE jog off the coast, it just sits over Hatteras for 15+ hours.

[burgertime]

GEFS over all looks like it's OP run. Looks like it's a tad south though once it hits NC. Low goes over CLT to between ILM and Myrtle Beach.