Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Robert just send up a status update on facebook...already noting the inaccuracy between the models and real-time data... WxSouth Take a close look at this picture. This is exactly what Wxsouth has been talking about for a couple of days ...it will be extremely critical on this developing upper low as to exactly where it begins to take on shape and when it starts to drop south.Already the 18z Run of GFS is wrong. Looking back, the 12z was too. The inset image on the left showed that valid right now (10 PM) the model was predicting the circulation center to be just east of north-central Montana. The water vapor loop clearly shows it is 125 miles west of where the Model predicted it to be just 6 hours ago. Overall in the big Global Scale picture, not a huge error. But as far as forecasting for the folks downstream in the Eastern US, this will have a big impact. That's why WxSouth has been stating the importance of exactly where the ULL will begin to drop further south and just how far east it gets before the southeastward dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice to see the NAM trend south, but for those of us south of I-40, it kind of feels like hitting a few three-pointers to cut the lead to 20 with under 2 minutes left. Still not going to change the final outcome. Too bad that southeast jog that happens near the end of the run couldn't come sooner. Hope it keeps trending, though, so at least some folks on this board (HKYWX, et al) can get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice to see the NAM trend south, but for those of us south of I-40, it kind of feels like hitting a few three-pointers to cut the lead to 20 with under 2 minutes left. Still not going to change the final outcome. Too bad that southeast jog that happens near the end of the run couldn't come sooner. Hope it keeps trending, though, so at least some folks on this board (HKYWX, et al) can get in on the action. +1 If we can't all cash in, here's hoping at least some of the long-suffering get to leave the table with a little folding money when the river card turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wxrisk.com shared No Apology, VA Meteorology's photo. a shift SOUTH to the european .. of course at this range the NAM is TOO warm still and tooo wet but it is seeing things the right way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even if ....still too little,too late. You have to believe this is a trend to have much hope nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. I don't...infact I really gave up hope when the northward trend started yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. Nah. I never believe DT. It could make a shorter drive into VA for me on Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. Laughable indeed. I am ready for my rain in the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. The Euro has had several runs in a row showing accumulating snow in INT and GSO, I am sure DT is hugging the Euro. You not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't. The only thing I will say is that DT really puts much, much, much more time into the Virginia and points north parts of his map than NC. Not an excuse, just an explanation. Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. I don't but its really hard to ignore the 150-200 mile shift south in the southern part of the accumulations from the 18z NAM to the 00z Nam. One more shift like that and I-40 and North in NC is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I mean I'm not trying to be mean at all. I looooove snow, but some people on here just spread these crazy wishes around the forum and its crazy. Anywho, I hope we can get snow before its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. I don't think anyone expects a huge shift south, but forecasting can be humbling...I mean, who thought the SC upstate and Charlotte area would experience widespread thundersnow with accumulations in the 2 to 5 inch range on Feb 16th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0z GFS off and running and the initalization of our feature looks accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The nam has been terrible lately. See that's my problem with DT, ya I said it. I live in GA but I put time and energy into making a forecast for everyone. Not just my backyard and up north where there is more people for website views. Ok rant over. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. He certainly is going out on a limb with this one. Who knows if it will happen...... I believe we all agree that if we don't see something encouraging by tomorrow morning, then this will not be our storm. Models are fairly accurate within 48 hours when there is good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think anyone expects a huge shift south, but forecasting can be humbling...I mean, who thought the SC upstate and Charlotte area would experience widespread thundersnow with accumulations in the 2 to 5 inch range on Feb 16th? I agree with that. My rant/post was geared more to the people that talk/hang onto laughable models just because it shows the solution they want. MOST people on here don't do that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. Disc and I are the northern most southeastern posters so I'm not expecting a gigantic shift either but I only need a slight one to get plastered aka Euro which had 1.75 and now nam I believe had 1.25-1.50 so if Gfs comes in I may get excited. Really wish this storm system could have been a little more south for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 at 15 it has a closed low on the Montana/North Dakota border...I just have a hard time believing that would actually verify when you look at the current water vapor images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice to see the NAM trend south, but for those of us south of I-40, it kind of feels like hitting a few three-pointers to cut the lead to 20 with under 2 minutes left. Still not going to change the final outcome. Too bad that southeast jog that happens near the end of the run couldn't come sooner. Hope it keeps trending, though, so at least some folks on this board (HKYWX, et al) can get in on the action. Be careful. It's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking at a WV loop. Could someone verify that this LP is starting its dive SE already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I certainly don't believe his first guess map will come close to verifying in NC, I was just passing along the map for people to see... or make fun of, whichever it's all good!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol it's all good frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I certainly don't believe his first guess map will come close to verifying in NC, I was just passing along the map for people to see... or make fun of, whichever it's all good!!! lol Good to hear. Because after his 1/17 call of a foot in Mount Airy on the day of the storm...he is not on a limb. NC is not his forecast zone to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At 30...1 contour and a 2nd trying to close off over Eastern South Dakota and dropping southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While y'all are bickering about the 00z NAM, the 00z GFS is starting to roll in. Get with the program! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can I ask an honest question, do y'all really expect a huge shift south? I'm really being serious. DT call for that much snow in the triad is laughable at best. What's your call/map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @ 39...2 contour low over Southwestern Iowa and dropping southeast. 1009 mb SFC low where the State lines of Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is terrible. Lets move on to the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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