Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have never seen so much hope/prayers these days for crappy models to verify. Lmao. if these crappy winters continue, get used to it. It's all we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on facebook from NC Piedmont Weather a couple of hours ago. I'll take either one, but even a blend like this would be great. So what this means is the difference in accumulation if a storm takes scenario 1 or scenario 2...This will ultimately tell how much snow your area will get but extreme north central NC looks to be in a good spot either way...This could still bring more snow than all Winter season for a good portion of the area and that in itself for this year is a major feat it seems...I do not see major agreement... and the Euro seems to be a blend of both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 but it has trended about 10-15 miles south on the 12z run today and the Canadian appears to have shifted south on the ensemble run by about 20 miles and at this point this will have major implications if it keeps trending south and it may as the models begin to see the block more clearly...Stay tuned another update after the 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Fat lady doesnt sing till Tuesday mornings runs, there still is several things that can IMO change things up quite a bit. Its frustrating that the energy looks to be trending a tad further SW every run and yet all the models still dont reflect that with the track on the east coast or at least not as big a move south as you would expect. I would also like more details about how it acts once it gets to the coast, does it go ENE, due E or SE like some models showed earlier. A move the the SE would make me raise a eyebrow as that could drag the wrap around closer to me, and would be about the only way we would see anything white in the eastern part on NC and even then....... It's the block and 50/50 thing, which I've been harping on. I said the other day that if that wasn't as strong, we'd be in trouble. It's doesn't appear to be strong enough to keep the thing far enough south when it finally gets in here. If we are going to have any prayer, the models have to be wrong about how our system interacts with what happens in eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No model supports either Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's the block and 50/50 thing, which I've been harping on. I said the other day that if that wasn't as strong, we'd be in trouble. It's doesn't appear to be strong enough to keep the thing far enough south when it finally gets in here. If we are going to have any prayer, the models have to be wrong about how our system interacts with what happens in eastern Canada Wouldn't be the first time they were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on facebook from NC Piedmont Weather a couple of hours ago. I'll take either one, but even a blend like this would be great. If even the low end of scenario 2 verifies IMBY, I'll eat the hat this guy pulled this prediction from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saw this on facebook from NC Piedmont Weather a couple of hours ago. I'll take either one, but even a blend like this would be great. Who is this guy? I would say those maps have less than 5% of verifying at least for my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok the 18z gfs ensemble member stink. We would need at least another 50 mile shift south to get that low closer to Morehead City/Wilmington for northern NC to be in the game. I'll still watch the models for trends, but there is little hope for much more than a quick burst of snow right now. Would you be happy with a dusting? Works for me I guess. I'll watch Cantore from DC on TWC. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf060.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok the 18z gfs ensemble member stink. We would need at least another 50 mile shift south to get that low closer to Morehead City/Wilmington for northern NC to be in the game. I'll still watch the models for trends, but there is little hope for much more than a quick burst of snow right now. Would you be happy with a dusting? Works for me I guess. I'll watch Cantore from DC on TWC. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf060.html A dusting may be hard to come by after factoring in high winds and a wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have never seen so much hope/prayers these days for crappy models to verify. Lmao. I guess us in nc were hoping for this one to make a crappy winter at least end up well, but we're not even going to get this one. very frustrating. I've been trying to hope this one back for nc but I'm fighting a losing battle, just about have thrown my hands up and said thats it for this winter another nothing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand this could be the trend for te next few years, but some of the wishing and hoping and praying and talking about jma this and cmc that...... It's just like, why put so much stock in these, they are terrible models. Some media/Internet personalities also need to quit hyping sh** so much and get some of y'all's hopes up so much. Especially when they model jump all over to the model that shows them what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For me...even 3 days away this has turned into a NOW-Casting situation and how this upper low evolves compared to the model predictions... Here is a great link to the water vapor image of this system... http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130303&endTime=-1&duration=12 Fascinating wv loop. Our system appears to be in Montana. Here with the potential vorticity advection and 300mb jet streamlines you can see the broad presumed path that the models indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I guess us in nc were hoping for this one to make a crappy winter at least end up well, but we're not even going to get this one. very frustrating. I've been trying to hope this one back for nc but I'm fighting a losing battle, just about have thrown my hands up and said thats it for this winter another nothing winter. Like Deltadog said, wishing and hoping that solutions put out by the JMA is only making matters worse. Once the general consensus was that the low was not going south into Alabama/Georgia but rather far enough north that it was a MA storm, it was a little silly seeing how now there was rooting for the JMA when normally that model would be panned in just about any other situation. There's enough smart and weather savvy people on this board to know that hoping just isn't gonna get it done in a winter like this....heck, we live in the south......that's the way it is. I'm not calling Brick out per se.....but I keep reading stuff like "I just have a feeling it's gonna come back south". Having a feeling will probably not work out in this instance. Anyway, it will most likely be entertaining seeing Cantore freaking out about thundersnow in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Fascinating wv loop. Our system appears to be in Montana. Here with the potential vorticity advection and 300mb jet streamlines you can see the broad presumed path that the models indicate. just looking at this map I would guess all of wnc would get a hefty snowfall, i guess i'm focusing on the red and being on the north and northwest side eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam is rolling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Like Deltadog said, wishing and hoping that solutions put out by the JMA is only making matters worse. Once the general consensus was that the low was not going south into Alabama/Georgia but rather far enough north that it was a MA storm, it was a little silly seeing how now there was rooting for the JMA when normally that model would be panned in just about any other situation. There's enough smart and weather savvy people on this board to know that hoping just isn't gonna get it done in a winter like this....heck, we live in the south......that's the way it is. I'm not calling Brick out per se.....but I keep reading stuff like "I just have a feeling it's gonna come back south". Having a feeling will probably not work out in this instance. Anyway, it will most likely be entertaining seeing Cantore freaking out about thundersnow in Virginia. yea I know, but when you grow up in the mtns during the 50's 60's and 70's as well as the 80's, we had some hefty winters growing up in nc so I guess this is the frustrating part now going thru the last two winters or three now. what has happened to our winters around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand this could be the trend for te next few years, but some of the wishing and hoping and praying and talking about jma this and cmc that...... It's just like, why put so much stock in these, they are terrible models. Some media/Internet personalities also need to quit hyping sh** so much and get some of y'all's hopes up so much. Especially when they model jump all over to the model that shows them what they want. What is really frustrating for me is folks talking about how great the pattern looked all the time, how this winter was going to be good, and even in this storm how great the blocking was going to be and things looked good on the models just a week out. It's getting so you can;t count on anything anymore, no matter how good it looks. Nothing seems to work out right. It's pretty useless even looking at the models past 24 hours when it comes to a potential winter storm around here. These days it just seems like anyone's guess is just as good as the models outside a couple of days as to what will happen, and the easy way out is to say nothing because it seems that is what happens most of the time, even when the models do show something really good. Yes, sometimes it goes the other way and we get a good storm when the models show nothing. But unfortunately, Jan 2000 does not happen very often, and it's usually the other way around with the models showing something good in the long and medium range and it doesn't happen. That is why it is so much more frustrating now than when we were just kids and just waited to see what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yea I know, but when you grow up in the mtns during the 50's 60's and 70's as well as the 80's, we had some hefty winters growing up in nc so I guess this is the frustrating part now going thru the last two winters or three now. what has happened to our winters around here? 2000 to 2010 was pretty good. But ever since Jan 2000 it seems it has been feast or famine. Instead of two or three good snows of 3 inches or more, now we just seem to get one big snow, or like it has been the past two winters and see hardly anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So quit reading these boards and stare at the sky for a few years. Meanwhile, lets pbp the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam is rolling! Don't rub it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I understand this could be the trend for te next few years, but some of the wishing and hoping and praying and talking about jma this and cmc that...... It's just like, why put so much stock in these, they are terrible models. Some media/Internet personalities also need to quit hyping sh** so much and get some of y'all's hopes up so much. Especially when they model jump all over to the model that shows them what they want. I don't t think anyone honestly believes the JMA will verify except maybe Brick. We just need something to cry into, it's kind of like our beer right after a break up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So quit reading these boards and stare at the sky for a few years. Meanwhile, lets pbp the NAM. Where's the fun in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am sitting here about to go crazy waiting on what the nam is fixing to show!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam nearly identical at 15 so far anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Energy on the south west flank of the upper level low is stronger compared to 12, low itself is virtually the same place. Energy in SO Cal is also stronger. Please keep the sidebars to a min, or better yet, ale them to banter. I understand we are all a little down after this one, and you have some latitude to express that, just try to keep the disco mainly focused on the thread title. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam nearly identical at 15 so far anyhow. The ULL is more elongated this run. EDIT: The block is a little further west, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is really frustrating for me is folks talking about how great the pattern looked all the time, how this winter was going to be good, and even in this storm how great the blocking was going to be and things looked good on the models just a week out. It's getting so you can;t count on anything anymore, no matter how good it looks. Nothing seems to work out right. It's pretty useless even looking at the models past 24 hours when it comes to a potential winter storm around here. These days it just seems like anyone's guess is just as good as the models outside a couple of days as to what will happen, and the easy way out is to say nothing because it seems that is what happens most of the time, even when the models do show something really good. Yes, sometimes it goes the other way and we get a good storm when the models show nothing. But unfortunately, Jan 2000 does not happen very often, and it's usually the other way around with the models showing something good in the long and medium range and it doesn't happen. That is why it is so much more frustrating now than when we were just kids and just waited to see what happened. Well thats certainly true Brick. The main reason imo is that we are so much better at data collection now. I mean by huge margins. And our computational capacity is so much greater as well. That gives us more ability to process variables. So although our forecasting is better, so is our ability to see more varied solutions. And of course this is the Southeast, even though many elements may have been favorable this winter, it still takes some luck to get a big snow down here. Hang in there man, it will happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hey Burger that vort over Maine at 18 that was like eastern Nova Scotia on the 18z is that what HM was talking about as the NW Atlantic block and to watch that closely? If so good deal west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't t think anyone honestly believes the JMA will verify except maybe Brick. We just need something to cry into, it's kind of like our beer right after a break up. Lmfao. Very good bud! I understand the frustrations but damn. The stuff is getting annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where's the fun in that? Well, apparently it isn't much fun for you to see model discussion not pan out the way you would like, and it's also not as fun to just ignore the model runs and discussion and be surprised when you wake up in the morning and see a snowfall like when you were 10 years old. You do realize that you can't have it both ways, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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