wake4est Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Man. Drops a foot and a half directly on DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Seems a pretty easy forecast for roanoke up to winchester and over to Charlottesville. I'd just go with 12" and plan to adjust accordingly. Tough spots are DC, Richmond, Martinsville. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 gfs snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the models are continuing to go a little further south each run. We're still two days away. I think they'll keep going more south with the system. I think it's going to be very hard for the models to get the exact track right, and 50 or 100 miles north or south can make a hige difference with snow totals. At this point anything cam be expected, but I like how they are trending south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1362349816.689519.jpg DC couldn't be more well-centered in the bullseye than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 real model "consensus" emerging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 real model "consensus" emerging... i'm pulling for the jma, ecmwf and cmc, its unbelievable that most of nc is completely out of the snow, this can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 real model "consensus" emerging... wow...yeah Very, very good graphic, thank you! It is helpful to see all of the models separate from their own maps. It is going into a very busy Atlantic. A block effect like that is going to have to be untied like a tangled string or cord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've never wanted to believe in the JMA so much in all my life. Has what would be probably 4-8 for all of NC. VA gets 8-12. I can handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I just looked at the CMC Ens. It looks pretty much exactly like the GFS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've never wanted to believe in the JMA so much in all my life. Has what would be probably 4-8 for all of NC. VA gets 8-12. I can handle that. yep wasn't that long ago we were saying all of nc would do good with this and now look where we're at. I know things can still change with 2-3 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 normally when a storm goes by its days before we warm up. GSP already has us at 51 thursday and 61 next sunday, doesn't look right either. I do know if we were by chance to get some snow this would bring temps down if we had some accum. on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I just looked at the CMC Ens. It looks pretty much exactly like the GFS to me. These CMC ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 These CMC ENS? Weird on SV it's not nearly as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've never wanted to believe in the JMA so much in all my life. Has what would be probably 4-8 for all of NC. VA gets 8-12. I can handle that. LETS GO JMA LETS GO! LETS GO JMA LETS GO! Hoping for a trend south and we get some action also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the 18z ensemble mean has extended it's precip shield farther south in nc compared to earlier runs even though the max precip around DC is in the same spot. Looks like that could mean that there is more spread in some of the members. We will see later. Maybe just a bit of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A pessimist is never disappointed. Given the model spread, I think I'm going to tone down my expectations for this one. I don't ever recall such model uncertainty this close to an event, but perhaps there have been other cases. Honestly, I'll be really surprised if I get a dusting. Seeing flakes might be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A pessimist is never disappointed. Given the model spread, I think I'm going to tone down my expectations for this one. I don't ever recall such model uncertainty this close to an event, but perhaps there have been other cases. Honestly, I'll be really surprised if I get a dusting. Seeing flakes might be a stretch.Tropical storm Debby ftw. That is as worse as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For me...even 3 days away this has turned into a NOW-Casting situation and how this upper low evolves compared to the model predictions...Here is a great link to the water vapor image of this system... http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=LIT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130303&endTime=-1&duration=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've never wanted to believe in the JMA so much in all my life. Has what would be probably 4-8 for all of NC. VA gets 8-12. I can handle that. yep wasn't that long ago we were saying all of nc would do good with this and now look where we're at. I know things can still change with 2-3 days to go. Perhaps things will change a bit over the next 72 hours. But don't expect a shift from DC back to CLT. System is now well-sampled over Canada and the models should be fine-tuning a track now, plus or minus 50 miles. I'm comfortable in saying this one is over for NC. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Perhaps things will change a bit over the next 72 hours. But don't expect a shift from DC back to CLT. System is now well-sampled over Canada and the models should be fine-tuning a track now, plus or minus 50 miles. I'm comfortable in saying this one is over for NC. Bring on spring! Yea I'm going to throw the towel in probably tomorrow after 12z. I'm pretty sure NC is out as well but I'll latch on the JMA just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's really interesting that all of the talking about the thing being out in the Pacific and not being well sampled (myself included), really didn't amount to anything. There were no major jumps after the energy was "well sampled". It was stinking before and it is stinking after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who needs the models when you have WSWs rolling out the pink carpet for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A pessimist is never disappointed. Given the model spread, I think I'm going to tone down my expectations for this one. I don't ever recall such model uncertainty this close to an event, but perhaps there have been other cases. Honestly, I'll be really surprised if I get a dusting. Seeing flakes might be a stretch. Or it could be the other way around. I just don't see how NC isn't in the game with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yea I'm going to throw the towel in probably tomorrow after 12z. I'm pretty sure NC is out as well but I'll latch on the JMA just in case I'll have to wait and hold the 2012/2013 winter cumbaya party off until the miracoluos wrap around deformation band can be put officially to bed for the triad. Usually I hate the end of winter because I dread the 30-60 ninety+degree days that are coming. But after last winter and this one it will pleasure me to put the nail in the coffin and try again. Less than 7 months away before we start tracking snow over up over the pole and El Niño signals e.t.c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's really interesting that all of the talking about the thing being out in the Pacific and not being well sampled (myself included), really didn't amount to anything. There were no major jumps after the energy was "well sampled". It was stinking before and it is stinking after. In years past where there was similar talk, the end result has always been the same...... no real change. As for all this talk about the models disagreeing, I think they have been in remarkable agreement. Its just that they aren't in 100 alignment and those slight nuances really affect alot of people. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 In years past where there was similar talk, the end result has always been the same...... no real change. As for all this talk about the models disagreeing, I think they have been in remarkable agreement. Its just that they aren't in 100 alignment and those slight nuances really affect alot of people. TW Yeah, from so far out, the fact that they've maintained the storm and had it in the same general location is quite remarkable. I can't imagine that there's something that's going to really put a lot of NC in the game at this point. But whatever. I'm all in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, from so far out, the fact that they've maintained the storm and had it in the same general location is quite remarkable. I can't imagine that there's something that's going to really put a lot of NC in the game at this point. But whatever. I'm all in anyway. Fat lady doesnt sing till Tuesday mornings runs, there still is several things that can IMO change things up quite a bit. Its frustrating that the energy looks to be trending a tad further SW every run and yet all the models still dont reflect that with the track on the east coast or at least not as big a move south as you would expect. I would also like more details about how it acts once it gets to the coast, does it go ENE, due E or SE like some models showed earlier. A move the the SE would make me raise a eyebrow as that could drag the wrap around closer to me, and would be about the only way we would see anything white in the eastern part on NC and even then....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have never seen so much hope/prayers these days for crappy models to verify. Lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.