Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thanks for the link. Is it possible that the greater resolution of the Euro and UK Met could be allowing them to pick up on the northern wave while the lesser-resolution models like the GFS are not? I also believe its just a matter of which set of model guidance is depicting and portraying which shortwave is the correct one to go with rather so much then high or low level resolution. This is why the forecast is so tricky and such a huge mess considering the heaviest precip could be shifted a couple hundred miles and have a much higher impact in select areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah sometime in the near future one set of models will probally take a big jump to match the other set. hoping GFs or nam comes south next run. Just hanging on to anything we can get are hands on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Everyone need to take a look @ WV. The upper level low near Montana is what we are watching. Look at how wound up this thing is WOW. I could see both models being right this thing is wobbling all over the place and strong also! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I also believe its just a matter of which set of model guidance is depicting and portraying which shortwave is the correct one to go with rather so much then high or low level resolution. This is why the forecast is so tricky and such a huge mess considering the heaviest precip could be shifted a couple hundred miles and have a much higher impact in select areas. Excellent points, it also a reason to not hug the models every run especially this far out still, when lots of things are still unknown. As it stands right now things look less than stellar for NC and especially horrible for folks like myself, that said who knows what the models will look like in 24 hrs, they might all have a big dog off ILM clobbering all of NC again like it did back in the 7-8 day range and we will all be freaking out. I will say though that if the models havent moved much off the current tracks by 12Z Monday someone needs to get the fat lady suited up and ready to sing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well looks to me @21 the NAM is south of it's 12z position. Not by anything that will probably cause a dramatic shift but it's a start for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HM making some interesting observations in MA forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39568-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope/page-29#entry2173779 Comparing the 12z GFS and Euro at hr60 (the upper low is in southern Illinois at this time), on the GFS, the 500mb confluent flow over the northeast is centered through central New York state into central Connecticut. On the Euro at this same time, the confluent flow is centered over north/central Pennsylvania through central New Jersey (i.e. it's farther southwest on the Euro compared to the GFS)...so to me, this at least partially explains the difference as to why the Euro is slightly south of the GFS in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM a little south, a little weaker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Comparing the 12z GFS and Euro at hr60 (the upper low is in southern Illinois at this time), on the GFS, the 500mb confluent flow over the northeast is centered through central New York state into central Connecticut. On the Euro at this same time, the confluent flow is centered over north/central Pennsylvania through central New Jersey (i.e. it's farther southwest on the Euro compared to the GFS)...so to me, this at least partially explains the difference as to why the Euro is slightly south of the GFS in the end. The euro both (operational and ensemble mean), in my mind has been rock solid in the past 4 runs in SLP track and heavy snow axis (Western VA down to ROA). The GFS has jumped 75-100 miles and the ensemble mean in now showing snow in southern Connecticut. Given the UKMET and GGEM (in some respects) sides more with the Euro solution, I find it hard to go with the GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro both (operational and ensemble mean), in my mind has been rock solid in the past 4 runs in SLP track and heavy snow axis (Western VA down to ROA). The GFS has jumped 75-100 miles and the ensemble mean in now showing snow in southern Connecticut. Given the UKMET and GGEM (in some respects) sides more with the Euro solution, I find it hard to go with the GFS on this one. Thank you for your posting. I think what we need at this point is to step back and look at the whole picture (as you are doing), and understand what we need to look for now that the system is ashore in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just my early guess the NAM may end up looking more like the Euro. We shall see. It's slower than 12z and further south. Who knows though with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Through hr 36, the NAM is noticeably further southwest with the ULL than the 12z run and the block is holding tougher. This is probably as far out as you want to look at the NAM as things start getting sketchy after hr 48 with the model. It's a pretty sizable shift. I really dont know if that would be a reasonable assumption or not because as you can see from the HM discussion he talks about the EURO honing in on the NW Atlantic low and various shortwaves I guess causing the entire development to be shunted southeast which obviously in turns helps us a great deal. We would need Deltadog or Ellinwood to chime in on this. Good question though. Wish I could answer it for you with certainty. Yeah, I don't really know too well how the models work with that stuff. I'm just speculating/wishcasting, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just my early guess the NAM may end up looking more like the Euro. We shall see. It's slower than 12z and further south. Who knows though with the NAM. I agree looks more SW at 33hrs compared to 12z also confluence in NE is slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z NAM is actually very close to 12z GFS...however just the tendency of the last few runs of the NAM heading SE at the very end and really blowing leads me to think it ends up looking more like the Euro...but as I said it's lining up very well with 12z GFS looking at it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 39 hr is definitely sw of its position but burger has already pointed out what needs to be pointed out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z NAM SW of 12z NAM and 12z GFS -- also like that more elongated Euro-ish look to the closed low. Maybe this is the beginning of an epic south trend that we talk about on this board for years to come. (See, I can be optimistic!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 at 42 hours the center of the 500mb low is a little west of the 12Z run for the same time, not sure if it will translate to bigger differences down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sharply south and it weaker -- it actually opened up at 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well whatever happens the NAM wants to just blow this low up. @54 it's three contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z NAM SW of 12z NAM and 12z GFS -- also like that more elongated Euro-ish look to the closed low. Maybe this is the beginning of an epic south trend that we talk about on this board for years to come. (See, I can be optimistic!) I like the way you think Skip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sharply south and it weaker -- it actually opened up at 45 hours. After 45 it kind of stops the SW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems like Arkansas is the benchmark for N.C. folks - the 500 mb low has to get across the Ark state line before turning east for us to have any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any word on the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Marginal but positive changes in both the h5 energy and the block on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 yeah, by hour 54 it's over SE Illinois and a big ole bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 It seems like Arkansas is the benchmark for N.C. folks - the 500 mb low has to get across the Ark state line before turning east for us to have any chance. yep, I'm afraid you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any word on the Euro ensembles?.From the crappy maps I have they line with the OP, will have the precip tables later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 There's simply no way to know for sure, but the NAM may very well turn the 500mb low ESE, as opposed to SSE, too fast over Iowa. With so many gyrations of the low along the track it really wouldn't take much to alter the track in one direction or the other. It's kind of like tracking a hurricane in that sense: wobbles just abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Man it just hit a brick wall at 51 hours and turned hard left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is really trying to bring that moisture a little more southwest to get Disc and I back this way. So so close. Low also tucked in a little closer to the coast on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like the NAM early on. A few more of those shifts and we could be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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