packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM destroys NoVA, looks good for central VA too. Happy for those guys, they have been skunked lately too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hopeful that he is wrong, but expecting that he is right. From HM in MA thread..sounds bleak for us. "The 00z ECMWF was definitely a southern outlier against the other guidance. Both the GFS/EURO ensembles and 00z to now 12z GFS have the h5 low go from southern IL to off the NC/VA border. This is not a DC miss and it is getting to that point where I want to throw confetti at you guys! lol I want to see the ECMWF at 12z, at the very least, bring the mid level centers north to where the GFS suite and ECMWF ensembles have it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's also funny since the GFS was comically wrong on the big NE snowstorm earlier this year. Like, 200 miles off 24h out. One other point I'll make is that, for good or bad, it is just dead wrong to say things like I can't see a model moving 50 miles. I have seen numerous storms that tracked more than 50 miles away from the model runs the day before the storm. You will need to be in the range of the hi-res models before you can nail this down that precisely. I have been in a WSW in the Triad for 6-12 and the rain/snow line ended up in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually, it is CLEARLY north of the 0z CMC. At 84h 500 low is off NE NC coast. Canadian a bit faster and it looks like a bit north of 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually the GGEM flips NoVA back to rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 is there not southern trends fellows? why give up now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Concerns of the euro being south are definitely being talked about right now in the MA; They are sweating it too. It'll start to become really interesting if the euro continues showing what it's had the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Great Disco folks. To bad for most of us , we will be watching others cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Concerns of the euro being south are definitely being talked about right now in the MA; They are sweating it too. It'll start to become really interesting if the euro continues showing what it's had the last two runs. It's the MA, when they get locked into a big storm inside 72 hours it's not going to miss them. I would imagine we are going to see a blend of of GFS/Euro, which is probably better for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I am still here, lol yep not giving up until the day of. reading to many south and west trends, more digging possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's the MA, when they get locked into a big storm inside 72 hours it's not going to miss them. I would imagine we are going to see a blend of of GFS/Euro, which is probably better for them. I wouldnt say that trust me they are sweating the Ukie and Euro big time, and there is still plenty of time for this to work itself back into a NC/S Va hit. If the GFS trends south at all over the next few runs the entire MA board is liable to explode, and what really sucks for them and us is we may not know for sure how it plays out till Tues or Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is the UK this bad and the GFS that good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldnt say that trust me they are sweating the Ukie and Euro big time, and there is still plenty of time for this to work itself back into a NC/S Va hit. If the GFS trends south at all over the next few runs the entire MA board is liable to explode, and what really sucks for them and us is we may not know for sure how it plays out till Tues or Wed. I don't know why they would freak out, they still get hit hard with the Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 UK Met with precip field makes me salivate... (some of that may be rain at the front end, but still) You're damned right I'm model hugging the Euro and UK Met right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldnt say that trust me they are sweating the Ukie and Euro big time, and there is still plenty of time for this to work itself back into a NC/S Va hit. If the GFS trends south at all over the next few runs the entire MA board is liable to explode, and what really sucks for them and us is we may not know for sure how it plays out till Tues or Wed. They hug whatever model gives them the most snow.....thats why very little other model talk happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 UK Met with precip field makes me salivate... (some of that may be rain at the front end, but still) You're damned right I'm model hugging the Euro and UK Met right now. That would be all snow as well. This is what we need to root for, something that just bombs away and gives us some big wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the Euro is still south just as positioned last night which model do you believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 UK Met with precip field makes me salivate... (some of that may be rain at the front end, but still) You're damned right I'm model hugging the Euro and UK Met right now. The euro and uk are the only things really keeping me optimistic right now. I'm definitely happy we have them on our side for the most part, but the GFS would be nice addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the Euro is still south just as positioned last night which model do you believe? It's very tough not to take a blend of the Euro and GFS. Both are probably wrong about certain features. If the Euro is night and day different over the GFS then this makes it much tougher to choose. However the big difference between the GFS was really how it handles it's self coming off the coast and how strong that ULL is. By taking a blend you probably get a more realistic approach and that means very little snow central, southern and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The euro and uk are the only things really keeping me optimistic right now. I'm definitely happy we have them on our side for the most part, but the GFS would be nice addition. That was a terrible GFS run for you, it's either feast or famine. Euro was almost 2" of QPF all snow while GFS was 0.25" of QPF that would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's very tough not to take a blend of the Euro and GFS. Both are probably wrong about certain features. If the Euro is night and day different over the GFS then this makes it much tougher to choose. However the big difference between the GFS was really how it handles it's self coming off the coast and how strong that ULL is. By taking a blend you probably get a more realistic approach and that means very little snow central, southern and eastern NC. My personel thoughts right now we need to focus on the position and strength of the blocking high then we can get the track right and I have not had time to look back @ previous runs to compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My personel thoughts right now we need to focus on the position and strength of the blocking high then we can get the track right and I have not had time to look back @ previous runs to compare. I just want to see the energy back west to keeping digging a bit more SW every run, seems it has the last several Euro runs now and if that trend keeps up I would think the rest of the track will resolve itself down the road as the models get a better grip on the strong blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, the GFS ensemble mean is north. Looks like it gets to New England now. Must be phasing the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Last night someone posted a couple of WV panels that seemed to show the storm coming ashore on the west coast more south than expected. I know the models to come later on today will provide more detail, but I was wondering if anyone has looked to see how things are evolving in real time on the west coast? (If I had access/expertise, I'd do it myself!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, the GFS ensemble mean is north. Looks like it gets to New England now. Must be phasing the energy. Yep, look at the jump, I am sure the MA folks are going crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The system(s) that have come onshore have a strange look. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html It is fully possible that the lower half of this complex will not remain, but seeing this shape at all is very surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like the track of the Ukie better, but the Miller B crap is very no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yep, look at the jump, I am sure the MA folks are going crazy... Translation: packbacker is going crazy because he will be in Herndon, VA this week...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Translation: packbacker is going crazy because he will be in Herndon, VA this week...LOL , you got me! I don't know WTF to do, if I am going to cancel my meetings I have to do it by Monday afternoon, hopefully we have model consensus by than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The HPC model discussion is funny, they don't know what to believe either.... BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVEBETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z ECMEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOWLOCATED NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHAND WEST OF THE 06Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEASTOF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM REMAINS AVIABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z EC MEAN AND 06Z GEFS MEANPOSITION. THE 12Z GFS IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPOND 06Z GEFSMEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND CLOSER TO THE 06Z GEFSMEAN POSITION THAN THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. IN ALL...NO MODELSTILL STANDS AS SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCESAT THIS TIME.IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EASTTHAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OFDETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THEHEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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