GaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Indeed. The Mid-Atlantic forum is blowing up right now. Personal attacks, insults, etc. I'm glad it's never like that here, not matter how ugly the sensible weather it gets. The idea that something totally uncontrollable and mainly not all that serious like wx causing behavior like this is totally insane. I'm sorry, but the idea of cliff diving, depression, fighting, etc., due to wx is laughable. I mean it is only wx. I don't care how much I enjoy certain types of wx. I take most of these types of negative comments with a huge grain as I just can't take them seriously. I think most people are just being silly...at least I hope so lol. Edit: Also this illustrates why I'd never want to live up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good morning. I'll save you some time. The 6z GFS went north about 20 miles and was weaker than the 0z run with less precip. I read that the pacific data should be fully sampled by the 12z runs today. Lets hope that the Euro was on to something with the ULL track and that it is reflected at the surface with that 50 mile southern shift we have been waiting for. Still hanging on by our fingernails trying not to completely lose this storm to the north. Here's to a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Euro ENS mean ticked south, just off Hatteras but the 6z GFS went even further north, as did its ENS mean. 12z will be telling, the Euro has been getting its butt kicked all winter, could this be another time.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Great trend with the Euro. Now it's a battle, who will win is anyone's guess. What I do like about the NAM in the LR is it gets to NC and just goes due south. My gut tells me the NAM is realizing the block is there saying, "head south". As we get closer and closer the NAM should start moving that drop further west...then again I thought that yesterday as well. Either way if you look at 00z vs. 6z on the NAM you'll see what I'm talking about. While it is further north initially it somehow ends up just due east of the 00z NAM in the LR instead of NE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Maybe a pro can chime in here, but is the reason that the Euro was further south because of the strong high pressure system on it's heels? Is that what is forcing this south? On the image I kind of put the general direction that high moves in. Dues to the confluence in the NE is this what is giving the Euro it's look? Is this what we should be rooting for along with the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 EPS control run has the center of the low going right over CLT out to around FAY or ILM. There is enough moisture from the low cranking that CLT gets around 2 -4 on there but the cutoff to the west is very sharp. Literally 20 miles to the west of CLT are just flurries along I-85. 40 north is a different story of course they do well. IMO we are still very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Great trend with the Euro. Now it's a battle, who will win is anyone's guess. What I do like about the NAM in the LR is it gets to NC and just goes due south. My gut tells me the NAM is realizing the block is there saying, "head south". As we get closer and closer the NAM should start moving that drop further west...then again I thought that yesterday as well. Either way if you look at 00z vs. 6z on the NAM you'll see what I'm talking about. While it is further north initially it somehow ends up just due east of the 00z NAM in the LR instead of NE . wish this thing would dig a little bit more and then east thru ga/sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 gsp has this starting as some freezing rain to rain then to snow for the mtns. and piedmont and saying the piedmont may stay a mix. are they just being real conservative right now. they don't seem to be honed in on the heavy snow that could happen. saying 85 may be a rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Euro ENS mean ticked south, just off Hatteras but the 6z GFS went even further north, as did its ENS mean. 12z will be telling, the Euro has been getting its butt kicked all winter, could this be another time.., No it hasn't. In day 3-5 range it's still been the Macdaddy! Sure it has a hiccup every now and then, but the euro op and ensembles along with the ukmet own the American models more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 EPS control run has the center of the low going right over CLT out to around FAY or ILM. There is enough moisture from the low cranking that CLT gets around 2 -4 on there but the cutoff to the west is very sharp. Literally 20 miles to the west of CLT are just flurries along I-85. 40 north is a different story of course they do well. IMO we are still very much in the game. The Euro package has been very consistent the past several runs with a track generally within 30-40 miles west to east across the southern Tn and southern NC borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know I shouldn't put this here but no one is on the observation site. I was reading that the models are showing the storm took a jog to the west and south during the night. My wife is driving to Charlotte to fly out Tuesday morning. Does anyone know or think she should leave Asheville Monday afternoon to be safe. Thanks to anyone who can help with this. Edit. Hearing there could be freezing rain Monday night for the Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know I shouldn't put this here but no one is on the observation site. I was reading that the models are showing the storm took a jog to the west and south during the night. My wife is driving to Charlotte to fly out Tuesday morning. Does anyone know or think she should leave Asheville Monday afternoon to be safe. Thanks to anyone who can help with this. If your wife is flying out on Tuesday she should be fine. This storm should hit on Wed into Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dont think so fritschy. But depending on her return ( if wed or thursday) you may have some flight cancellations or delays thru the mid atlantic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thanks kvegas and burgertime I will tell her to wait until Tuesday morning as planned. I will stay abreast of the situation as it unfolds. Coming back no problem. 3 weeks from now before she is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GSP overnight disco Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... as of 245 am Sunday...there is reasonable consensus among the models on a deepening 500 mb low center moving southeast across the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night. The associated cold front extending south of the occluding system will push through the southern Appalachians Tuesday evening...with profiles cooling rapidly. This should support a transition from rain to snow from west to east overnight. The upper low should reach the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday and then move eastward to the NC coast Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile...secondary surface wave development is expected across the NC Piedmont Tuesday night...with the low deepening near the NC/Virginia border as it pulls away to the east through Wednesday. Although a pool of steep lapse rates will cross the forecast area Wednesday morning...it appears that the deepest qg and deformation zone forcing will brush the northern tier while passing mainly north of the forecast area Wednesday. While mountain profiles should solidly support snow during this period...ern/srn Piedmont sections may have a well mixed boundary layer that could keep a surface warm layer in place through much of the day. Better precipitation rates in any showers could still produce some snow in these areas. Interstate 85 will be a first guess rain/snow line...with snow accumulate potential increasing rapidly into the northern mountains and northern NC foothills. Will continue the severe weather potential statement mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 06z GFS= Ugly! A few passing showers and maybe a flake or two at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the Euro is catching on and starting to move south. Now have to see if the American models follow course or if this will be a battle of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the Euro is catching on and starting to move south. Now have to see if the American models follow course or if this will be a battle of the models. We need to see the shift south very soon (like 12z or 0z). Of course we can have shifts right up to the event but the shift ussually are much smaller. I'm still very hopefull that the shift may occur (blocking is strong) but we have to be prepared for a GFS victory (...Virginia north victory), The GFS (IMHO) has been the best model this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the Euro is catching on and starting to move south. Now have to see if the American models follow course or if this will be a battle of the models. Model Wars!! (I coined it first and I'm talking with TLC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Model Wars!! (I coined it first and I'm talking with TLC) NAM is honey boo boo!...which should be rolling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just wanted to put it out there in case anyone wanted to read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I was thinking this might happen a few days ago. I think we'll continue to see adjustments south aloft on the 500mb cutoff, given the overal pattern over new england/atlantic. A more rounded track is much more likely. The SLP will adjust in time, it is usually the last piece of the puzzle the mods get right. I will make a blog post later today peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 @18 on the NAM not much diff compared to 6z looks like it has wobbled slightly to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At 27 hours, 12z NAM is stronger compared to 6z run -- already two closed contours on the 500mb low. Also of note -- blocking appears slightly stronger and the departing trough off the east coast is moving out slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At 27 hours, 12z NAM is stronger compared to 6z run -- already two closed contours on the 500mb low. Also of note -- blocking appears slightly stronger and the departing trough off the east coast is moving out slower. Looks a hair south but it's difficult to tell. Def. a tad slower coming east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Comparing 6z using three hours to 12z since it's slower shows it is south. Also that energy south of it is weaker on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At 33 -- slower, less negatively tilted and stronger than 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Boy you compare the 6z to 12z downstream and it sure doesn't seem like this thing can do anything but go farther south. We'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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