superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro 500 mb track almost EXACTLY THE SAME as 0z Ukie -- northern Arkansas at 72 hours, then off the NC/SC coast at 96. Interesting. The top two models (statistically) in the business... Looks like it would be a great run here based on h5, at least. I'm not sure if DCA would get in on the game much with that track, but I really don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yeah, but for some reason the surface features didn't adjust to the upper level shift. Last night's 0z Euro had the 500 low way up in Iowa at 96 hours. Tonight's at 72 hours is in NE ARKANSAS!! Are you kidding me? Yet the surface low actually trended north? Something really screwy is going on. 0Z Doc clown very similar to the Saturday 12Z Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Tonight's run, hr 72: Last night's run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Did I really just come back on and see that the euro went south? I'm very interested in what the snow maps show now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm shocked, stunned and baffled by the Euro -- the 500mb shift between 0z runs at 72 and 96 hours respectively is unbelievable. From Iowa to the Ark/Missouri/Tenn. line??? Seriously? Yet the surface feature is actually NORTH of last night's 0z position. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 bring it home superjames lol ... but cmon you two (bean and sj) ... i know from lurking that you two have been following this stuff for years ... what changed in the run that has the upper low so far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I think we are seeing the system phase again hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It may not last (tho' I certainly hope it does) but I had to change my avatar based on tonight's Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0Z Doc clown pretty similar to the 12Z Doc but slighly more snow overall Heaviest ~8" western half of the VA/NC line. Charlotte now nearly 1". Was minimal on the 12Z. HKY ~4". Was ~2" on the 12Z. Superjames ~1". Was ~2-3" on the 12Z. Brickster ~1/2". Was ~1/2" on the 12Z. Edit: Asheville ~4". Was ~2-3" on the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any detail on the path of the 500 low and/or surface low in between the 24 hour increments? 0Z Doc clown pretty similar to the 12Z Doc but slighly more snow overall Heaviest ~8" western half of the VA/NC line. Charlotte now nearly 1". Was minimal on the 12Z. HKY ~4". Was ~2" on the 12Z. Superjames ~1". Was ~2-3" on the 12Z. Brickster ~1/2". Was ~1/2" on the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 bring it home superjames lol ... but cmon you two (bean and sj) ... i know from lurking that you two have been following this stuff for years ... what changed in the run that has the upper low so far south? I'm honestly not too sure. The block might be a little further west, but I don't think that really explains the huge jump. Looking at limited 24-hour panels doesn't help, ha. 0Z Doc clown pretty similar to the 12Z Doc but slighly more snow overall Heaviest ~8" western half of the VA/NC line. Charlotte now nearly 1". Was minimal on the 12Z. HKY ~4". Was ~2" on the 12Z. Superjames ~1". Was ~2-3" on the 12Z. Brickster ~1/2". Was ~1/2" on the 12Z. Only 1" here? Wow, what happens? Kind of puzzling given the ULL track, to be honest. Dry-slotted? EDIT: Is it possible that the clown snowfall maps are just off? It just seems hard to believe that isn't a pretty solid snowstorm in the northwestern Piedmont with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's pretty interesting that snowfall amount still increased even though the surface low was in a similar spot compared to 12z today, one would think that based on h5 maps that those amounts are way too low especially I-40 north in NC, with an ULL in that location. Interested to see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OH wow, Euro is an absolute stunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 "*** ALERT *** 0Z SUNDAY EARLY MORNING run of the EUROPEAN MODEL ... OFFERS NO CHANGES ***DROPS 12 to 18" of HEAVY WET SNOW over entire western Third of VA.... from RONAOKE up the ENTIRE Shenandoah valley.. all of it... up to Harrisonburg... with SMALL area of 18-24" near Charlottesvillle ! This is VERY close to the 0Z GFS .then around that area is 8-12" over eastern THIRD of WVA into WYTHEVILLE and Martinville Danville to FARMVILLE / Crewe to Lake ANNA to Fredericksburg to Manassas to Winchester / Martinsburg to western MD and 4 to 8" from Northwest NC/ Boone to Hickory to Greensboro to Richmond to Tappahannock to DCA to Hagerstown to Pittsburg PA" DT http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, that's true as far as sensible weather is concerned. I'm trying to get his thoughts on the upper features. "*** ALERT *** 0Z SUNDAY EARLY MORNING run of the EUROPEAN MODEL ... OFFERS NO CHANGES ***DROPS 12 to 18" of HEAVY WET SNOW over entire western Third of VA.... from RONAOKE up the ENTIRE Shenandoah valley.. all of it... up to Harrisonburg... with SMALL area of 18-24" near Charlottesvillle ! This is VERY close to the 0Z GFS .then around that area is 8-12" over eastern THIRD of WVA into WYTHEVILLE and Martinville Danville to FARMVILLE / Crewe to Lake ANNA to Fredericksburg to Manassas to Winchester / Martinsburg to western MD and 4 to 8" from Northwest NC/ Boone to Hickory to Greensboro to Richmond to Tappahannock to DCA to Hagerstown to Pittsburg PA" DT http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not too keen on having 12"-18" of HEAVY WET snow. Talk about major power outages for the majority of VA if euro verifies. I saw back in January that with just 4-5" of heavy wet snow does a number to trees and power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Here is something to remember also usually the Euro is light QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Any detail on the path of the 500 low and/or surface low in between the 24 hour increments? per 0Z Doc: -500 mb low hours 78-90: Nashville to Asheville to Fayetteville. -Sfc low elongates during hours 78-90: at 78, one center OH/IN/KY intersection and other center near HKY at 84, NC center takes but is elongated from High Point to ENC at 90, centered NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow -- interesting. So the 500 low really dove south from E. Montana -- got all the way to the ArkLaMo (just made that up), then basically took a hard left turn and went slightly south of due east the rest of the way. Odd. Thanks for that. per 0Z Doc: -500 mb low hours 78-90: Nashville to Asheville to Fayetteville. -Sfc low elongates during hours 78-90: at 78, one center OH/IN/KY intersection and other center near HKY at 84, NC center takes but is elongated from High Point to ENC at 90, centered NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 hope? Keep in mind that the storm is still going on at 12z Wed so that would likely shift further east with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can't wait to read the morning discussions of tonight's Euro... off to bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Keep in mind that the storm is still going on at 12z Wed so that would likely shift further east with time. yea...thought that would be inferred in the text of the graphic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is a 6 contour ULL at hour 96 right over ILM. I have never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Definitely for the central and western North Carolina, especially the Triad and mountains/foothills. hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this should be in banter but i always take it as a good sign when the MA forum starts ripping each other to shreds over a southern trend .. lol ... nonetheless ... nobody seems to know why such a shift south in the Euro has occurred .. other than the the blocking high & ukmet (and wilkes' damned birds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 this should be in banter but i always take it as a good sign when the MA forum starts ripping each other to shreds over a southern trend .. lol ... nonetheless ... nobody seems to know why such a shift south in the Euro has occurred .. other than the the blocking high & ukmet (and wilkes' damned birds) The blocking on the Euro is just sick, nice to see it hold. Actually it ticked south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 yea...thought that would be inferred in the text of the graphic lol Indeed. The Mid-Atlantic forum is blowing up right now. Personal attacks, insults, etc. I'm glad it's never like that here, not matter how ugly the sensible weather it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Since it's pretty slow in here right now I thought I'd ask now. Does the placement of the 850mb low greatly effect whether there is up/down sloping? If so then I would think with winds out of the S/SE on this map would indicate at least some form of upslope. (the winds don't seem to be at ideal trajectory.) But I would think there would still be at least some upslope flow. http://imgur.com/Y6gXr3J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The blocking on the Euro is just sick, nice to see it hold. Actually it ticked south. thanks ... the answer i was looking for this should be in banter but i always take it as a good sign when the MA forum starts ripping each other to shreds over a southern trend .. lol ... nonetheless ... nobody seems to know why such a shift south in the Euro has occurred .. other than the the blocking high & ukmet (and wilkes' damned birds) Indeed. The Mid-Atlantic forum is blowing up right now. Personal attacks, insults, etc. I'm glad it's never like that here, not matter how ugly the sensible weather it gets. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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