superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So gso is done then? Well we had a good run lol No. Every model is showing some snow here ... some more than others. Looks like the GGEM wasn't as good as I thought based on the French maps that show the entire Northern Hemisphere. Ah, well. Looks like it kind of rams the low right over the Apps, though, which seems kind of far-fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Canadian actually sped up a bit and also, I fear, trended a bit north. At 84 hours, it now has the 500 low in that sweet spot of extreme NE Tenn. (it was over Chattanooga on 12z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 CMC has a ton of rain on the onset even for most of Virginia. Looks like the initial low is cranking over Indiana and then transfers it to NC then drifts into VA and stalls out over RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 What's interesting is that the CMC has the upper low over the Tenn/Ark/Missouri border at 72 hours and it basically just trucks due east from there. Any more digging would make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I_nw_g1_EST_2013030300_080.png I_nw_g1_EST_2013030300_088.png Splitting hairs, but if this thing just moved south by about 50-75 miles, I'd be winner winner chicken dinner. (That is if I don't mix with too much slop on the onset) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I_nw_g1_EST_2013030300_080.png I_nw_g1_EST_2013030300_088.png Looks like the I-81 corridor would be a good starting place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Quite the transfer on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I went and made two images showing what has changed with the system since this morning. I don't know! We will have to see how it looks again in the same amount of time, but, maybe the shift to the south happened before even coming onshore. : ) The ULL to the west seems to have been close enough to affect the dynamics of the system in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 put forks in this one.... IMO** The problem is there is really nothing to push this south....the ridge is pushing this along as it comes over the plains states. its really just caught under the ridge, but still moving in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the I-81 corridor would be a good starting place. Va dot keeps 81 pretty clear during these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Va dot keeps 81 pretty clear during these events Some of the heavier events it's hard for them to keep up, but I do have to give it to them. They are prompt on snow removal and do a good job at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know we'll have a better idea Sunday evening how the path will be laid out. But I'm wondering if anyone could comment (who has much more knowledge than myself) about Calm_Days water vapor images differences noted above and the potential impact it could have on the western system coming in further south than anticipated? Thanks - learning a lot here !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 81 does get shutdown sometimes. Plus, much of it is a vast rural area where getting stranded would be life-threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'd think some of the rates in VA would totally overwhelm the DOT for VA. We are talking some areas probably lucking out (depending on how you look at it) and getting close to 2 feet or more even if the current models are true... in fact, it's worrisome for the older/homeless becuase of how this storm can change on a dime shifiting tracks etc. ;/ EDIT: if these models show the same deal come 24 hours out, I hope they have immediate plans in place to help vulnerable people before its too late.. for the whole state.. even the coastal regions could get a thump if things worked out in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NoVA is very well prepared. Since Snowmegeddon, Arlington has been on point with snow prep and removal; sort of the Cary of NoVa. Look for the federal government to shut down as well as the Metro. This area declares snow emergencies that really should be adopted statewide in North Carolina as a plan of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at Instant Weather Maps ... the Euro looks a tick further SW than last night's run at hr 48. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at Instant Weather Maps ... the Euro looks a tick further SW than last night's run at hr 48. Interesting. Need a few ticks and a couple of tocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro right smack dab on top of its 0z Saturday position through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Need a few ticks and a couple of tocks... If it stays the same as last night's run, it's actually a phenomenal run for us in northern NC. We'll see if it does. NOTE: I am comparing this to last night's run as opposed to 12z since I only get 24-hour panels on Instant Weather Maps and it's kind of hard to compare when you don't have the same time frame to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow -- 500 mb low way down over NE Ark, but surface pressure displaced up into KY???? Something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow -- major south trend with 0z Euro -- 500 mb low off Wilmington at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wow @ tonights 00z Euro vs last nights 00z.. through 72.. interesting placement of the ull and its stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This ULL is like 200 miles south of last night's run at hr 72. OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One more jog like that and it's a whole new ballgame -- wish someone with paid access could give us more detail...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is there still a Miller B-type transfer between the two double-barreled lows across NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 OH MY GOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Parts of SC may not be totally out of it yet if Euro continues with these shinanigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0Z Doc clown very similar to the Saturday 12Z Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Have I fallen asleep and dreamed of the perfect storm? <pinch> Nope, still awake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0z Euro 500 mb track almost EXACTLY THE SAME as 0z Ukie -- northern Arkansas at 72 hours, then off the NC/SC coast at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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