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March 5-6 Storm Discussion


Poimen

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I'm giving it till 12z Monday before I totally throw in the towel. 

There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday:

 

0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities

18z GFS: Extreme NW NC

12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga

12z UK: NE Tenn.

12z Euro: NE Tenn.

 

That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. 

Noticed our only friend in that bunch is the outlier

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There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday:

 

0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities

18z GFS: Extreme NW NC

12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga

12z UK: NE Tenn.

12z Euro: NE Tenn.

 

That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. 

 

It's a tight spread, but they still far enough part to make a huge difference over portions of NC.  For example, the UK Met, GGEM, and Euro are all seemingly far enough south to give N NC some significant snow (though the maps for the UK Met and GGEM make it hard to really tell for sure) whereas the GFS is a no-go outside of maybe an inch or two (as is the NAM).

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It's a tight spread, but they still far enough part to make a huge difference over portions of NC.  For example, the UK Met, GGEM, and Euro are all seemingly far enough south to give N NC some significant snow (though the maps for the UK Met and GGEM make it hard to really tell for sure) whereas the GFS is a no-go outside of maybe an inch or two (as is the NAM).

 

I'd rather have those three on my side than the GFS and NAM. And the NAM looks like it is out to lunch right now.

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I'm telling you, even if I was in Virginia I wouldn't feel safe on this one -- at 72 850 low is STILL straddling Ind./Ohio/Mich. border.

 

 

There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday:

 

0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities

18z GFS: Extreme NW NC

12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga

12z UK: NE Tenn.

12z Euro: NE Tenn.

 

That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. 

 

This is going to be central VA's best hit in many years, watch, may set a record or two...  Kinda crazy when you see it coming in to the regional range, storm is likely going to verify, some alarm bells given the period in which the models carried it, especially with the EC for the past 2-3 days painting 2"+ QPF along 64 in VA.   Just south of that is likely the pivot and SN dominant type, as it temporally stalls off NE NC/HAT/VA Capes.  Area bounded by 66 in VA/WV (do not see this going much north of the MD boarder in to PA), 81 corridor from Winchester to Roanoke, back to Charleston WV and Western MD east to 95, maybe down to 40.  Jackpot likely within about 60 miles of a line from Charlottesville to Front Royal, maybe back down towards Farmville.  Areas along the boarder of NC should do fairly well east of Danville, as could RDU and GSO depending on how and where the system stacks, but the track overall should be suppressed, with the 850 maybe kicking out to ILM rather than Crabtree Valley.  

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The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want.  If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now.  Why even look at the model if it's that bad?

It sounds like your agreeing with us but questioning our motives...YES we all are hoping for favorable trends. Unless your model of choice for mid-range modeling is the NAM.

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The 12z euro surface LP goes from Memphis at 72 To just north of Fayetteville at 96. Unfortunately I don't have access to euro 500 mb maps. Bottom line is the euro op and especially euro ensembles say not so fast at sticking a fork in this pup yet. 90 + hours is chicken feed when all ur hoping for is a 50- 75 mile shift. We will be getting out of the sparse data zone tomorrow at this time.

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How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range?  Seems few and far between.  The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others?  Granted, the sample size isn't large (i.e. model tracking on the web)

 

Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though.

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How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range?  Seems few and far between.  The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others?  Granted, the sample size isn't large.

 

Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though.

I guess that is why JB says this storm will correct north as they almost always do.

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How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range?  Seems few and far between.  The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others?  Granted, the sample size isn't large.

 

Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though.

 

How many times have we seen a setup like this, though?  It's pretty bizarre.  I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result.  This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010.  It seemed like we had a new one every week.

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The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want.  If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now.  Why even look at the model if it's that bad?

 

I understand what you are saying here.  For me, it's more the repeatedly getting bent over from the NAM after putting stock in it that gives me nausea. 

 

How many times have we actually seen a rain to snow storm like this or a Miller A actually trend south in the 3-5 day range?  Seems few and far between.  The 2010 Christmas storm moved from the Ohio Valley to the deep south, but I can't really think of any others?  Granted, the sample size isn't large (i.e. model tracking on the web)

 

Now, we've had plenty of cold air damming setups that trended colder and colder with the low level cold air....different setup though.

 

I am waving your flag grit.  I never had much hope for this, due to my love/hate relationship with ULL's as well as the fact that the tick north was really "on the wall" early.

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How many times have we seen a setup like this, though?  It's pretty bizarre.  I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result.  This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010.  It seemed like we had a new one every week.

I don't recall a ULL tracking due east over the NC Apps, I am sure it's happened but couldn't find any.

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How many times have we seen a setup like this, though? It's pretty bizarre. I'm not sure if the north trend is a given, as a result. This isn't one of the million Miller As that we got in 2009-2010. It seemed like we had a new one every week.

Well, I'm counting on the euro to tell the tale, but we'll see what the gfs has to say. Believe it will be supportive of the consistency though.

I'm with you. First I need to see the gfs be consistent with itself a couple of runs, then most important the euro has to agree with it.
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Too early on NAM resolution 4.5 days out. Monday a.m. track will verify. Other than that trust your last decent GFS and ECMWF 5 day. trends Chill. and I mean everything and everybody. Do you want to just hand it to DT, accu, and the MA? Too easy. Rain to snow in Central NC. Lots of the super wet stuff. 2 days from then it wlll be gone and more daffodils will bloom... eventually. :sun:

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