Marion_NC_WX Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can anyone summarize Roberts video? TW Leaning toward a Virginia hit but is allowing some variation in the 500mb track and how far south it snows in North Carolina. He showed a close-up of the 12z Euro, and extremely rare 5 contour low over Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Very weak with precip at 54 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can anyone summarize Roberts video? TW Here is his updated map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The Climo trend (not calling it a north trend any more because that implies it's arbitrary, which it's not) is relentless right now. I'd say all NC locations -- even the northern tier -- are in trouble on this one. Maybe even into Virginia. For the south of I-40 crowd .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 WCNC "The next storm system brings a chance for a few rain showers as early as Monday night into Tuesday. The interesting day will be Wednesday. Parts of the area could see accumulating snow, while others might see a rain snow mix. Instability may be high enough for a few thunderstorms or even thunder-snow. Stay tuned!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Blocking building in a bit better, but lately that doesn't seem to affect the track. To wit, this appears a bit north (again). Yep very baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow comparing Nam 0z and Gfs 18z at hour 60 is ridiculous how far apart these models are on the features. The nam has the low on the eastern IL western IN border and the Gfs has it western KY western TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow comparing Nam 0z and Gfs 18z at hour 60 is ridiculous how far apart these models are on the features. The nam has the low on the eastern IL western IN border and the Gfs has it western KY western TN Comparing 0z 60 and 18z 66 is the correct way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 850 low now up over the Indiana/Mich. state line at 66 -- yes, that's a great location for SE snow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The nam is headed for Detroit at 66! Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Comparing 0z 60 and 18z 66 is the correct way And that is what I meant posted it the wrong way my bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like a good run for southern Michigan, to be honest. Good run for Milwaukee, too. It's almost like the NAM realized that the ULL couldn't move any further east due to the blocking, but it also didn't want to dig, so it just decided to park the ULL in Illinois and keep it there for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm telling you, even if I was in Virginia I wouldn't feel safe on this one -- at 72 850 low is STILL straddling Ind./Ohio/Mich. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAMs out to lunch I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmmm...@84 it's heading into NC. Would not be surprised if tomorrow we see it going further south. It's like @78 or so it realizes there is blocking. At least on this run our friends in eastern TN get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why anyone looks at the NAM past h6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Transfer shows up nicely on hour 81 frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not sure why anyone looks at the NAM past h6 Agreed, the good thing about this run is the ULL is close to the 18z GFS track at hour 84 and we know the hour 84 NAM won't be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam has more qpf back this way. From thunder flurries to snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm sorry but that was the most ridiculous model run I've watched anyhow. No idea if it has any validity but someone posted on one of the other forums that the Nam may have had initialization errors haven't checked ncep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 WeatherNC I see you roaming on here you have any input on the confluence this latest model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks Euroish track? It will come around tomorrow! Don't know if we here in NC will get any snow but NAM is slowly coming around to the GFS, Euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Doesn't make sense how the blocking keeps getting better on the model runs but the system doesn't move further south. I just think they are not handling the blocking correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 My problem with the NAM in the LR right now is what is always wrong with the NAM in the LR it has totally different looks every time. The worst part is even in the LR what the NAM is showing would be possible. I do though like that it seems that energy trying to race out in front on the southern side seems to be weaker with each run in the short range. NAMs out to lunch I'm afraid Not sure why anyone looks at the NAM past h6 Agreed, the good thing about this run is the ULL is close to the 18z GFS track at hour 84 and we know the hour 84 NAM won't be correct. I'm sorry but that was the most ridiculous model run I've watched anyhow. No idea if it has any validity but someone posted on one of the other forums that the Nam may have had initialization errors haven't checked ncep. The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want. If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now. Why even look at the model if it's that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm sorry but that was the most ridiculous model run I've watched anyhow. No idea if it has any validity but someone posted on one of the other forums that the Nam may have had initialization errors haven't checked ncep. There were the usual errors... nothing out of the ordinary per NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want. If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now. Why even look at the model if it's that bad? +1 even negating the nam's higher resolution also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The LR NAM may not be that great but it seems it's getting based because it's not showing what some want. If the NAM showed a big hit for VA and NC I bet it would be held up on highest praise right now. Why even look at the model if it's that bad? Not sure why you quoted me when I said that the NAM is totally plausible. Yes folks would be very excited but they would also be very worried. You would probably see me post the exact same thing with just "NAM is a huge hit for NC" added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. That's a pretty tight spread for 84-90 hours out. I'm giving it till 12z Monday before I totally throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 There is actually pretty amazing model agreement right now on what is going to happen. I know we all -- me included -- want to wait for later runs to hopefully shift our way, but looking at the 500 mb low position at 12z Wednesday: 0z NAM; Va/NC border near Tri Cities 18z GFS: Extreme NW NC 12z Canadian: Near Chattanooga 12z UK: NE Tenn. 12z Euro: NE Tenn. Very tight consensus...0z tonight is likely the last chance IMO and it is game on in VA...limited parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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