eastonwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter weather advisory just issued for LV Currently just Lehigh County. Northampton County not included in wwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM wants to snow again friday this model is really special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The placement, expansive-nature and amounts on the NAM from the banding feature (no it is not a gravity wave) are most likely wrong. The only thing you should take from it is the potential for a nasty band. The band is simply convection in this case (yes you heard me, lol). 1. The occluded front produces deep layer convergence in this area. 2. Influx of moisture is still available 3. Cold air aloft with mid-upper level low / cold air overhead underneath a low-level warm anomaly/warm seclusion trying to form. The combination will produce convective banding along this feature. A surprise or two is possible in the southern portions of our area with this but I'm not sure how far north it can get. The global models say, "not far." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Didn't expect to be under a Winter Weather Advisory for 3 to 5 inches. Sounds about right, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Since I'm preggo can I have ice cream Have some froyo insread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My updated forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Walt wanted to go all in on this but Tony backed him off the ledge based on what the AFD is saying. CONFIDENCE ON OUTCOMES A LITTLE LESS THAN I PREFER. IN OTHER WORDS... I STILL THINK WE WILL MAY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM IN THE POPULATION CENTERS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM A RESPECT OF HEAVY SNOW...HIGH WIND...COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER..DEFERRING TO THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRENDING 12Z MODEL RUNS AND A WET BIAS IN THE SREF/NAM BROUGHT TO MY ATTENTION BY TONY... WE HAVE A LOWER HAZARD PROFILE. To be honest, to Tony...I think prudence is the best recipe here and have been saying that for a while. PS -- why Walt is leaning into the NAM and SREF given its performance this winter is intriguing to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I always lol at how weenies are obsessed over watch placement. Its as if they think it will give them more snow if they are in one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5 inches here? I don't see it I'd be happy with 1 inch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Walt wanted to go all in on this but Tony backed him off the ledge based on what the AFD is saying. CONFIDENCE ON OUTCOMES A LITTLE LESS THAN I PREFER. IN OTHER WORDS... I STILL THINK WE WILL MAY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM IN THE POPULATION CENTERS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM A RESPECT OF HEAVY SNOW...HIGH WIND...COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER..DEFERRING TO THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRENDING 12Z MODEL RUNS AND A WET BIAS IN THE SREF/NAM BROUGHT TO MY ATTENTION BY TONY... WE HAVE A LOWER HAZARD PROFILE. To be honest, to Tony...I think prudence is the best recipe here and have been saying that for a while. PS -- why Walt is leaning into the NAM and SREF given its performance this winter is intriguing to say the least. I haven't read the AFD but I think there is actual convection that is going to fire here. This suddenly becomes a hybrid spring/winter scenario. QPF with something like that is close to useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Obs thread coming soon? I'm sitting here watching my temperature and hoping it goes down more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know that most of us are officially in temperature watch mode (as we should be since they will be everything tomorrow). Before we get too wrapped up in temps this afternoon, let's all take a deep breath because they really are almost irrelevant. Dewpoints are meaningful as are temps above the boundary layer but don't get concerned with surface temps in the mid and upper 40s (or higher) this afternoon. As one example, the day before the March 93 "superstorm" temps were in the mid 40s under bright sunshine, and it felt even warmer... And when the precip started in the wee hours, it was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I haven't read the AFD but I think there is actual convection that is going to fire here. This suddenly becomes a hybrid spring/winter scenario. QPF with something like that is close to useless. I buy the convection possibility but most of the modeling keeps it south of the city. I don't see where I'm getting 3-5 out of this, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrOldSchool Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm scheduled to drive Thursday from my place, 15 miles W of EWR to Salisbury via the NJ turnpike, DE 1, US 113 for a weekend event. When do y'all think would be the best/worst time to travel given the current expected storm dynamics? Earliest I can leave is probably 3:30 PM Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm scheduled to drive Thursday from my place, 15 miles W of EWR to Salisbury via the NJ turnpike, DE 1, US 113 for a weekend event. When do y'all think would be the best/worst time to travel given the current expected storm dynamics? Earliest I can leave is probably 3:30 PM Thursday. Leave at 330 then. Looks relatively benign at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5 inches here? I don't see it I'd be happy with 1 inch lol Id go less than an 1 Inch, seems like thats the norm for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The watch/warning/advisory map on my offices home page looks like someone had a field day with crayola colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The watch/warning/advisory map on my offices home page looks like someone had a field day with crayola colors. looks like i got a pixel, thanks mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The watch/warning/advisory map on my offices home page looks like someone had a field day with crayola colors. Seems as if Walt had his way, there would be more pinks than blues.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I buy the convection possibility but most of the modeling keeps it south of the city. I don't see where I'm getting 3-5 out of this, IMO. Well, I can't speak for them; but, the convection thing, I was referring to, had to do with the NAM reasoning I was talking about earlier. I don't think the NAM is right. I do however think that once this goes vertically stacked and all the winds become cyclonic, killing off the big AM frontogen, convection will increase in coverage in the warm sector over the Gulf Stream. Also, convection looks to fire along the occluded front DE-S NJ. I could see Mt. Holly throwing in "thunder" down there at some point. How this convection interacts with the original conveyor belts and deep cyclonic flow is the point I'm getting at. I suppose it could simply move seaward, with the mid level features, and that be the end of it. My concern is this deep-layer, true convection along the occluded front ends up advecting more moisture back into the state than being modeled on the globals. But I can appreciate their dry QPF with the sinking air behind the convection and kicker s/w moving this coastal out to sea more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well, I can't speak for them; but, the convection thing, I was referring to, had to do with the NAM reasoning I was talking about earlier. I don't think the NAM is right. I do however think that once this goes vertically stacked and all the winds become cyclonic, killing off the big AM frontogen, convection will increase in coverage in the warm sector over the Gulf Stream. Also, convection looks to fire along the occluded front DE-S NJ. I could see Mt. Holly throwing in "thunder" down there at some point. How this convection interacts with the original conveyor belts and deep cyclonic flow is the point I'm getting at. I suppose it could simply move seaward, with the mid level features, and that be the end of it. My concern is this deep-layer, true convection along the occluded front ends up advecting more moisture back into the state than being modeled on the globals. But I can appreciate their dry QPF with the sinking air behind the convection and kicker s/w moving this coastal out to sea more. I'm guessing your going for a NAM / GFS blend then. I agree with the thunder mention, dynamics usually get wild (and somewhat unpredictable) when vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we can keep the clear skies for a little while longer, we might be able to get some decent radiational cooling... EDIT* The southern locales seem to be colder than the northern locales at this point. http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=NJZ022&local_place=3%20Miles%20E%20Landisville%20NJ&zoneid=EST&offset=18000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we can keep the clear skies for a little while longer, we might be able to get some decent radiational cooling... EDIT* The southern locales seem to be colder than the northern locales at this point. ideally you want the clouds to come in right before precip. When the clouds are hours in advance your temp will rise pretty good also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=BWI&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir I use this satellite link often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm scheduled to drive Thursday from my place, 15 miles W of EWR to Salisbury via the NJ turnpike, DE 1, US 113 for a weekend event. When do y'all think would be the best/worst time to travel given the current expected storm dynamics? Earliest I can leave is probably 3:30 PM Thursday. You will be fine by 3:30 on Thursday. Remember, no matter what happens, it is still March. Any snow that falls anywhere on your route will begin melting at dawn on Thursday... if not sooner... and that goes whether it is still cloudy or not. By the end of the morning rush on Thursday, even the worst hit areas (and that almost certainly does not include any place along your drive) will have nothing more than some slush on the less traveled roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 TWC has upped the Lehigh valley to 5-10! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 TWC has upped the Lehigh valley to 5-10! LOL JMA all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everyone seems to be banking on the SREF's and NAM at this point. Time will tell if that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 looks like i got a pixel, thanks mike Hey Ray Mercer County is split east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Too early for a separate Obs thread, but, FWIW, after a high of 49 at PHL, they are already down to 42 with a dewpoint of 26. If the clouds stay away for a few more hours, we will be well on our way to... well... let's just say to a less awful boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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