phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i've always understood that rain will typically have a 1:1 QPF ratio...any mets care to chime in? is this wrong? Sometimes it may have a 1.1:1 ratio if there's enough pollution with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So you're saying that 100ft of atmosphere cannot be coooled down in 16 hrs of heavy precip? You must believe that KPHL will not get into heavy precip. You do realize that the freezing height is closer to 2000 feet for this storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sometimes it may have a 1.1:1 ratio if there's enough pollution with it... NAM picked up on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So you're saying that 100ft of atmosphere cannot be coooled down in 16 hrs of heavy precip? You must believe that KPHL will not get into heavy precip. Here's the 0Z Thursday sounding from the 12Z GFS. The freezing level is around, say, 600 meters. That's close to 1800 feet. Far more than 100 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 go on... HM, i hope you're paying attention...you're about to get learned, son... lol Look, if we can improve the omega field / frontogen, then I think the warm layer can be overcome. But, the 12z GFS just didn't have enough lift to do it. Peak freezing levels reach 2500' along I-95 Wed early afternoon on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 people need to keep their heads and understand the NAM-JMA are pure fantasy. The most likely outcome is a ECM-GFS blend Hey ! some of us like to indulge in fantasies. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2-10to1-40.php3?STATIONID=DIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You do realize that the freezing height is closer to 2000 feet for this storm, right? It lowers gradually as the storm pushes east. There is no reason for the heavy snow axis to skip over KPHL like that and restart over NYC like it does on the GFS snowmaps. I don't know what the model is seeing but it appears that the best thermals are west to east and not north to south. Would argue that Boston goes over to rain as the low occludes while KPHL cashes in. The only negative factor I see is that a large proportion of precip falls during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 6ABC has me in 4-8". What the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS torches everyone.......the flow is not progressive enough for I-95 to get major snow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It lowers gradually as the storm pushes east. There is no reason for the heavy snow axis to skip over KPHL like that and restart over NYC like it does on the GFS snowmaps. I don't know what the model is seeing but it appears that the best thermals are west to east and not north to south. Would argue that Boston goes over to rain as the low occludes while KPHL cashes in. The only negative factor I see is that a large proportion of precip falls during the daytime. The best dynamics head east first, then cut north. So they miss PHL. They end up on the coastal plain where its more likely to be rain, or poorly accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The best dynamics head east first, then cut north. So they miss PHL. They end up on the coastal plain where its more likely to be rain, or poorly accumulating snow. I like it better when you are home, the weenie in you comes out.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 For revenge, he might lol...ever since the moderate risk/SPC incident. Tropical storm-like winds seem likely and I think MLLW levels of 7-8 feet are likely with any modeled scenario (in agreement with Mt. Holly). It is possible Delaware exceeds 8 feet. Impacts would be flooding at times of high tide, power outages and possibly areas of construction could take a beating along barrier islands. Back-Bay type flooding likely Thursday, esp. Ocean County points south. GFS is not a horrible model. Give it a rest... Don't worry he has been given a rest for 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's crazy that people still think KPHL will have major p-type issues. Based on the information available, 6-12" is a good estimate with the lower end most likely. 850mb temps are quite cold(- 3-5c) and 1000-500mb thickness are barely below 540. GFS is a horrible model. 18z GFS torches everyone.......the flow is not progressive enough for I-95 to get major snow. Wouldn't be surprised if it happened the way this winter has gone. tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only 7 more NAM runs to the first flake/drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 tight and gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks for the reply HM. I will forward this to some people I know at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know this is not an easy snowfall forecast, but wow the forecast snow totals I am seeing so far are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know this is not an easy snowfall forecast, but wow the forecast snow totals I am seeing so far are all over the place. so you don't think rays 1-2 ft for ttn will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Continuing the winter theme C-2 inches here in delco if it snows at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Lehigh Valley shouldn't see rain from this...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Lehigh Valley shouldn't see rain from this...right? you very well could. It all depends on the rates of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Lehigh Valley shouldn't see rain from this...right? you very well could. It all depends on the rates of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Lehigh Valley shouldn't see rain from this...right? you very well could. It all depends on the rates of precip. lol wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that's great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 LOL epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsbuff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Greetings weather gods. I have been quietly reading your posts here for the past year and a half (this is my very first post) and I just wanted to thank you all for the great info I find here and the comedy you all tend to throw in. I am a science teacher who has taken a few grad courses on meteorology and introduced it to our 9th grade course this year. I try to puzzle out your posts (I go to NOAA and look up much of what you put in your posts) and pass them onto my colleagues who now think I have the inside track on the most accurate weather forecasting, which makes me popular in weeks such as this. So thanks and you all Rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Someone needs to bust out that NAM pic again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 that is ray's job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z gfs reality check takes a step to the ecm, HM's sepa snow hole possibility glaringly evident silly snow maps are actually a more reasonable 2-5" in sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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