Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I would dismiss the NAM, you can't totally dismiss the chance of this being a significant to major snowstorm for us....About half of the GFS indiviudal ensemble members crush Philly in heavy CCB snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's crazy that people still think KPHL will have major p-type issues. Based on the information available, 6-12" is a good estimate with the lower end most likely. your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's crazy that people still think KPHL will have major p-type issues. Based on the information available, 6-12" is a good estimate with the lower end most likely. SAy what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Facebook and twitter are just dumpster fires of bad analysis and people who can't read a f**king snow output map. SMDH people need to keep their heads and understand the NAM-JMA are pure fantasy. The most likely outcome is a ECM-GFS blend It's crazy that people still think KPHL will have major p-type issues. Based on the information available, 6-12" is a good estimate with the lower end most likely. *snickering* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 While I would dismiss the NAM, you can't totally dismiss the chance of this being a significant to major snowstorm for us....About half of the GFS indiviudal ensemble members crush Philly in heavy CCB snows. Link to GFS members showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I see the NAM has brought the influx of crazy back into this forum....we were doing so well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 *snickering* I should have clarified and said "and message boards" lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I see the NAM has brought the influx of crazy back into this forum....we were doing so well Nam is weenie nitrous oxide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I see the NAM has brought the influx of crazy back into this forum....we were doing so well Well, it's apparent that there are alot of Euro-huggers. GFS supports the NAM to some degree, more or less 3-5" at KPHL. Take a look at the soundings and don't be conservative just because of this or that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, it's apparent that there are alot of Euro-huggers. GFS supports the NAM to some degree, more or less 3-5" at KPHL. Take a look at the soundings and don't be conservative just because of this or that. Where's the 3-5" at KPHL? WHERE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, it's apparent that there are alot of Euro-huggers. GFS supports the NAM to some degree, more or less 3-5" at KPHL. Take a look at the soundings and don't be conservative just because of this or that. The NAM is doing it's normal apesh*t run prior to a storm...it will come back to reality, it may be after the storm has passed though ...and there are a lot of Euro huggers for a reason..it's far superior in most respects...the NAM shouldn't be said in the same breath as the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the nyc forum is getting ready for their second blizzard in a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ratios are like 1:1.........bad map is bad. Also, that snowmap has a tendency to misdiagnose rain/snow as non-accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gotta love these NAM guys. After a long day at the office, I needed a good laugh! Cue that Batman & Robin image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the nyc forum is getting ready for their second blizzard in a month I won't even read a word in there until this is all over. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to GFS members showing that? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf060.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ratios are like 1:1.........bad map is bad. this has some merit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The ratios are like 1:1.........bad map is bad. and SV shows similar as does this (if you know how to read it). http://charlie.wxcaster.com/text/GFSSFC/GFS_KPHL.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope metfan keeps us updated with NAM radar imagery through the remainder of these trying times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf060.html No, someone posted a link earlier that actually showed the snowfall from the ensemble members, and it wasn't much because (wait for it...) they're warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope metfan keeps us updated with NAM radar imagery through the remainder of these trying times... Now that you said this..he probably will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope metfan keeps us updated with NAM radar imagery through the remainder of these trying times... HM what are your thoughts on the impact to the Jersey shore from the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850mb temps are quite cold(- 3-5c) and 1000-500mb thickness are barely below 540. GFS is a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850mb temps are quite cold(- 3-5c) and 1000-500mb thickness are barely below 540. GFS is a horrible model. go on... HM, i hope you're paying attention...you're about to get learned, son... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snarky HM is snarky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850mb temps are quite cold(- 3-5c) and 1000-500mb thickness are barely below 540. GFS is a horrible model. Thickness has to do with the entire volume of atmosphere between 1000 and 500 mb. Which means, if the 850s are so cold, then somewhere else its unusually warm. In this case... the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NYC subforum is going downhill again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thickness has to do with the entire volume of atmosphere between 1000 and 500 mb. Which means, if the 850s are so cold, then somewhere else its unusually warm. In this case... the surface. So you're saying that 100ft of atmosphere cannot be coooled down in 16 hrs of heavy precip? You must believe that KPHL will not get into heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now that you said this..he probably will For revenge, he might lol...ever since the moderate risk/SPC incident. HM what are your thoughts on the impact to the Jersey shore from the winds? Tropical storm-like winds seem likely and I think MLLW levels of 7-8 feet are likely with any modeled scenario (in agreement with Mt. Holly). It is possible Delaware exceeds 8 feet. Impacts would be flooding at times of high tide, power outages and possibly areas of construction could take a beating along barrier islands. Back-Bay type flooding likely Thursday, esp. Ocean County points south. 850mb temps are quite cold(- 3-5c) and 1000-500mb thickness are barely below 540. GFS is a horrible model. GFS is not a horrible model. Give it a rest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i've always understood that rain will typically have a 1:1 QPF ratio...any mets care to chime in? is this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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