famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Precip-wise, the 12z GFS looks real nice. Now, we just need the Euro to come north.... and for the temps to come down on all the models... and for about ten other things to come to pass. Kidding aside, we are closer to a real hit now than we have been since this thing showed up in the long term.... we definitely have a ways to go, but maybe.... just maybe... the trend is our friend. It goes without saying, but it will be beyond painful if the 12z GFS verifies verbatim and DC AND Boston are BOTH measuring snow with a yardstick while we get a cold rain. DCA proper changes to rain on the 12Z GFS by 12Z Wednesday. Maybe they go back to snow at some point but verbatim it doesn't look great. IAD on N and W looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For the record, not me.... Definitely not. Last night's thread was close to insane, I thought, with the NAM justifying. We needed Ray to hit em' with the graphics he hits us with here. Always good for a laugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 keeping my fingers crossed for SNE...they deserve a big one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'm still weary for us Philly/immediate burbs folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Definitely not. Last night's thread was close to insane, I thought, with the NAM justifying. We needed Ray to hit em' with the graphics he hits us with here. Always good for a laugh... I don't hold a copyright , though they're more effective here since the one is region specific. Someone should save some NAM graphics from down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 keeping my fingers crossed for SNE...they deserve a big one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'm still weary for us Philly/immediate burbs folks... it's a close call as one more jump north like the 12z on the ec brings the 1" qpf line to philly, boundary layers are another story but N&W could potentially see secs amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 btw the JMA does a godzilla style stomping on the delaware valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 btw the JMA does a godzilla style stomping on the delaware valley When doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 keeping my fingers crossed for SNE...they deserve a big one... haha this made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HPC: 12Z JMA INITIALIZATION ERROR. JB KATY BAR THE DOOR DATA INPUT TOO STRONG. REQUESTING INFO FROM WELL RESPECTED MET FOR NEXT RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Saving these for later use in the DC threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'm still weary for us Philly/immediate burbs folks... This sounds like the short version of what I posted a couple hours earlier... But yeah, those of us living below 500' in elevation and outside of the area of heaviest precip don't appear too likely to see any meaningful (1"+) snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When doesn't it? somewhere i have it's 1.25" 48hrs out for my area on 2/6/10 saved... kinda like the nam in you have to cut qpf in half much of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 keeping my fingers crossed for SNE...they deserve a big one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just wanted to add my kudos to Walt Drags write up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Winter storm watches creeping up to Harrisburg and Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 fwiw euro snow map.. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 fwiw euro snow map.. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=194878 Nice improvement in this area. Most of that falls wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'm riding the eric horst train. hard. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'm riding the eric horst train. hard. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg I would love to see those numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z nam is SECSY cut it's qpf in half of course and you get 3-6" paste most likely in parts of sepa kind of where the gfs was at. Need the euro north one more click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the NAM doesn't verify those totals the modeled should be defunded completely. What a waste of computing power* *unless it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the NAM doesn't verify those totals the modeled should be defunded completely. What a waste of computing power* *unless it's right. sequester the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the NAM doesn't verify those totals the modeled should be defunded completely. What a waste of computing power* *unless it's right. Wow! got that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For lolz, the RPM shows similar to the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 For lolz, the RPM shows similar to the NAM... I saw the morning run and it had like 16 for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Facebook and twitter are just dumpster fires of bad analysis and people who can't read a f**king snow output map. SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 people need to keep their heads and understand the NAM-JMA are pure fantasy. The most likely outcome is a ECM-GFS blend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's crazy that people still think KPHL will have major p-type issues. Based on the information available, 6-12" is a good estimate with the lower end most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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