delgto04 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Winter over- game, set, match. Looking forward to first fishing trip of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 KNow whats great? GOLF IS GONNA BE GREAT THIS WEEKEND! THE COURSES WON'T EVEN BE WET!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 What I got from that is HPC was changing their probabilistic snow products to better match the watch/warning criteria used by the NWS Forecast Offices. yes Mike,and right after that they went to digital forecasting and changed the criteria. After reading several old posting back in 1996-2000, the 4-6 wording was removed from the warning as as being to broad and became more specific and was based more on probabiliites for specific amounts. The digital probabilities do not match the warning criteria. the 2-4 -8-10 etc does not match as well. Not blaming regional offices but this looked like it was pushed on you guys from the HPC to adopt back then. I noticed the NOAA report on how the 96 storm event was handled was somewhat critical about this in their report. I do not agree and they were on the ball at Mt Holly. It was the transportation function that was at fault (PennDot) for accepting the information as not being critical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGuide Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wow at the 0z NAM. just, wow. Then you look at the GFS, and you think how can a forecast be so dramatically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 yes Mike,and right after that they went to digital forecasting and changed the criteria. After reading several old posting back in 1996-2000, the 4-6 wording was removed from the warning as as being to broad and became more specific and was based more on probabiliites for specific amounts. The digital probabilities do not match the warning criteria. the 2-4 -8-10 etc does not match as well. Not blaming regional offices but this looked like it was pushed on you guys from the HPC to adopt back then. I noticed the NOAA report on how the 96 storm event was handled was somewhat critical about this in their report. I do not agree and they were on the ball at Mt Holly. It was the transportation function that was at fault (PennDot) for accepting the information as not being critical Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 reminiscing on a much more interesting March system: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/page__prune_day__100__sort_by__Z-A__sort_key__last_post__topicfilter__all__st__21680 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Wow at the 0z NAM. just, wow. Then you look at the GFS, and you think how can a forecast be so dramatically different. It's because the NAM is absolute sh*t right now. It can't even get 3 hr forecasts right. There really has to be a NCEP upgrade soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 bring on the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm really at the point of making a separate thread just for Nam nonsense, kind of like the vendor thread. This way it won't clog up real discussion with its loltastic showings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 I'm really at the point of making a separate thread just for Nam nonsense, kind of like the vendor thread. This way it won't clog up real discussion with its loltastic showings. The 6Z NAM got a bit more realistic compared to its earlier runs for tonight's snow. Hopefully that's a trend. I might even cut the top inch off if it dips down to GFS numbers and say "coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Phlwx or ray anyone else want to share there worse weather bust? For me it was January 08, still depress about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Phlwx or ray anyone else want to share there worse weather bust? For me it was January 08, still depress about itMarch 2001, hands down. Of course Boxing Day ten years later made up for that one. But march 2001 had all the hype. I remember Kocin painting 2 to 3 feet right over NJ 60 hours out. 2nd biggest bust is jan 1988. Currently, this, I wouldn't even call a bust because I never expected much with being on the western fringe and a crappy boundary layer.Not sure what happened Jan 08. I remember V-Day 08. This board was on high suicide alert. I can't say it was bust for me anyway. I never seen a storm produce 4" of sleet before with no rain. Ended up with five total for that. I actually thought it was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 March 2001 for me, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 march 2001 hands down..Up this way most did not have high expectations, and Ray you did make a good call for the area. The comments in the other thread were more DC based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 What storm was the biggest surprise? I can't really remember but I thought PDII forecasts were pretty conservative until shortly before the storm began. Other than that I can't think of any. March 2001 has to be the biggest bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Wasn't V-Day in '07? I think I got something like 4.5" of rain from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Biggest bust was March 5-6, 2001. Biggest surprise was actually 1 month earlier (Feb 5, 2001). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 6/6/10 was a real shame because if the stratiform rain/clouds didn't intercept the prefrontal convection, we would have had a rare northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England tornado outbreak. A lot of people gave bad reasons for why the severe weather fell apart that day, just like they are for why DC-BAL didn't get snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 march 2001 hands down..Up this way most did not have high expectations, and Ray you did make a good call for the area. The comments in the other thread were more DC based. Its OK... I shouldn't have gotten upset by it. I'm just so frustrated right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Wish this wasn't the case but a Winter Storm Warning forecast of 4-7" that's verified with 0"/green grass outcome seemingly serves to support the public perception that this profession is guess work at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 3/5/01 at least trended away down the stretch in a chunk of the modeling. For DC and South Central PA (they were supposed to get 5"+ as well), this was worse than 3/5/01. For Philly, it wasn't supposed to be a huge storm...it busted but outside of the NAM there weren't many model runs from the globals that supported big snow to really get enthused about the prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 6/6/10 was a real shame because if the stratiform rain/clouds didn't intercept the prefrontal convection, we would have had a rare northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England tornado outbreak. A lot of people gave bad reasons for why the severe weather fell apart that day, just like they are for why DC-BAL didn't get snow yesterday. burrrrrrn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 To me this wasn't a huge bust in this area since marginal temps/rain were well advertised. Now if it had been cold enough for accumulating snow and we had this qpf outcome it would have been a huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Wish this wasn't the case but a Winter Storm Warning forecast of 4-7" that's verified with 0"/green grass outcome seemingly serves to support the public perception that this profession is guess work at best. I mostly agree with this too. I was surprised as this storm was closer and what was being observed that ChesCo wasn't downgraded to a WWA. Preception wise, that's not as bad when an advisory doesn't work out. Based on the warning Oxford schools and also Cecil county were closed. Personally, want to thank you all once again for letting us lay people join in once in awhile. I am mostly lurking and trying to learn. I've seen others post this as well---when I get asked about certain forecasts and I give answers based on all the information I gain here, well I have been proclaimed a weather god!~LOL (if they only knew!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Ray, you did a great job this week. When I see other people guessing at high totals and see you talking about a coating to 2 inches, I know to dial down my expectations. I know I would rather have a storm exceed my expectations than be let down. I don't understand why so many people seem to want to follow the guys who almost always erroneously predict the highest amount of snow. Is it some kind of adrenaline rush thing that I just don't understand? If one guy predicts 4" and another guy predicts 12" and you wind up with 6", wouldn't you be much more likely to put your trust next time in the guy who was only off by 2"? Yet it seems like the opposite is true in the land of the weather weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 By the way, since people were talking about the biggest busts, this one will always be the one I think of that let me down the most. Only time I ever remember Philly being under a PDS Tornado Watch. Even the local forecast on The Weather Channel was ominous that Sunday - the picture for that day's weather showed a large tornado and the text even said "destructive tornadoes possible." URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 150 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ATORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORKCENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIALAKE ONTARIOEFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 700PM EDT....THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AREPOSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WESTOF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 15MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK.REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENINGWEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLEWARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 March 2001 the biggest bust i can remember But second biggest was February 8th this year. I was universally modelled to receive bewteen 8-15" snow for that one and measured 2.7" This has been a dissapointing winter for snow not working out reminiscient of the 80's. Post sandy storm i was expecting 3" and got nothing and of course there is just the other day. Three strike winter *** Nevermind that this February 8th was clearly a bigger debacle then 2001. That storm had folded 24 hours out and had come during a winter that had two high end MECS and one 8" surprise snow in february, this years storm had a chance to break a two winter snow drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Here in Bucks County this is turning out to be not much of a bust. Well, I guess the forecast for the other day was a bust as was today.....so double bust, but todays bust is a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 why did i venture into the NE OBS thread nice jackpot again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.