March 6-7 banter thread

[MGorse]

This storm has major research/case study potential, especially looking into the modeling aspect of it. I must admit, I laughed at the NAM last night and continued to do so when the 06z run came in. It was almost like the NAM was trying to forecast one or both of the February 2010 blockbuster storms again.

[phlwx]

If you want that you can also go to the Accuwx forums. There are plenty of forums where weenies who have no idea what they are talking about hype storms. This sub-forum is almost free of that and we plan on keeping it this way. The mainstream exposure we have had also presents a need to keep this sub-forum clean with quality posts. Goof off in the banter threads but our discussion threads are moderated in a style that values quality over quantity.

 

Rib FTW

[phlwx]

This storm has major research/case study potential, especially looking into the modeling aspect of it. I must admit, I laughed at the NAM last night and continued to do so when the 06z run came in. It was almost like the NAM was trying to forecast one or both of the February 2010 blockbuster storms again.

 

Time clearly for NOAA/NCEP to pull the plug on that piece of sh*t.  Use the bandwidth and computer power to improve the GFS.

[Cary]

Once again, I will offer my services to help clean up the NYC subforum. I am willing and quite eager.

[Snow Man]

The lesson I have learned once and for all is that if BL temps are modelled to be warm than I am not going to count on a storm to manufacture its own cold air or to use some other "magic process" to somehow get siginificant accumulating snow. Now if there is a cold airmass that can be tapped that is another story.

[tombo82685]

The lesson I have learned once and for all is that if BL temps are modelled to be warm than I am not going to count on a storm to manufacture its own cold air or to use some other "magic process" to somehow get siginificant accumulating snow. Now if there is a cold airmass that can be tapped that is another story.

dynamics can do it, better chance obviously in january and feberuary than march. Yea, your point is spot on. Its a coin flip on that aspect and usually never works out well for the coastal plain.

[eastonwx]

Where's the NAM???

[Allsnow]

I feel bad for dca crew. It takes years to get over a bust like that. I get chills just thinking about it.

[Chris L]

I feel bad for dca crew. It takes years to get over a bust like that. I get chills just thinking about it.

 

Kind of like us with January '08.

[Allsnow]

Kind of like us with January '08.

Oh god stop

[WebBreaker63]

OK Lessons learned from being in MD with this storm this week:

• There was never enough cold air for snow and the dynamics never came into play for it to create its own cold air
• Make sure you check the cold air readings North of you before expecting a North wind flow to provide cold air for change over
• Know your demographics/region - I was lost in MD (the Bay down here seemed to play a major, very warm) -- I know NJ and what to expect

So with above said and going with old time thinking/storm history. I would be leery of snow potential in PA/NJ with this storm and rain snow line, don't be fooled with initial mixing.

 

Yes I drank the kool aide down here and forgot my roots, no cold air, coastal storm, March day time storms rarely happen with sun angle - if all this happened at night - different story.

 

Understand that this might be a bit colder up North... and there is a potential for some snow around the central- south NJ/ PA area - how much?  Not sure - but I just went from a 10+" winter storm warning to nothing.... Lesson Learned -- back to reading threads

[whatever]

Do you dry hump or make full blown passionate love to the NAM computer model while you're at it as well?

 

 

Actually i'm a girl..

 

and i'm guessing the strict moderating here doesn't pertain to Pro Forecasters.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

So when should we expect the changeover to accumulating snow ?

[tombo82685]

alright, enough with the bashing of other posters or forums, lets keep it civilized.

[phlwx]

Actually i'm a girl..

 

and i'm guessing the strict moderating here doesn't pertain to Pro Forecasters.  

 

My apologies for any offense...and it's a banter thread...but you haven't done yourself any favors with trashing this forum.

[Grothar]

I do not think the warning criteria was 4 inches there. At least in the 10 years I have been at Mount Holly.

This may help-- the probability scale used was developed by the HPC as an experiment in 2002 Section 4.2  led to the changing the county wide winter storm criteria in order to base it on the probability of storm event s meeting winter storm criteria. Ranges were set like 4-6 winter storm  1-3 winter advisory 12+ heavy snow warning

 

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/WWE.../wwe1hpcfinalreport.pdf.

[WebBreaker63]

So when should we expect the changeover to accumulating snow ?

Ughh - you shouldn't....

[Rib]

Whatever, I don't casre if you are a Martian, you make crappy weather posts, then trash my sub-forum you will get a bag of flaming dog poop. I told you there are other forums where you can join in on high quantity, low quality posts, but you are not going to bring that into my sub-forum then actually bash this sub-forum when coming from a sub-forum that made us bring back the 5 ppd rule. I don't care if this is a banter thread, if you are new in a neighborhood, you don't walk into your neighbors back yard and take a steaming crap on their lawn.

I take pride in this sub-forum and the fact that who we have posting here...posting here. I take pride that we were featured on NBC10 by Glenn Schwartz and even on Philly.com today.

 

Hey guys, remember when I used to think the green tag would get me the ladies

[Rib]

WWE in that link. I think people want to hit mets with chairs in Baltimore and DC. I feel bad for them. This storm was no fair.

[MGorse]

This may help-- the probability scale used was developed by the HPC as an experiment in 2002 Section 4.2  led to the changing the county wide winter storm criteria in order to base it on the probability of storm event s meeting winter storm criteria. Ranges were set like 4-6 winter storm  1-3 winter advisory 12+ heavy snow warning

 

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/WWE.../wwe1hpcfinalreport.pdf.

 

What I got from that is HPC was changing their probabilistic snow products to better match the watch/warning criteria used by the NWS Forecast Offices.

[cast4]

I don't get what the hell is so hard about not posting every single weenie thought that comes in your head, if you don't know what you're talking about. I don't know jack about forecasting winter events, so what do I do? Not post unless its obs time. It's not hard at all, people need to sit back and learn. I've done a hell of a lot of it on this board and Eastern since 2007, and learned a lot. That's why I'm always grateful we have mets like HM, Adam, Ray, Mt Holly mets, etc. posting here. It's bad that weenies in other forums don't realize the knowledge they drive away with their crap, but then again, I don't think they care.

And cast, this post wasn't directed at you, at the weenies in general. Just wanted to make sure you didn't think I meant you, lol.

 

NP smoke. I didn't take it that way.

[WebBreaker63]

OK Lessons learned from being in MD with this storm this week:

• There was never enough cold air for snow and the dynamics never came into play for it to create its own cold air
• Make sure you check the cold air readings North of you before expecting a North wind flow to provide cold air for change over
• Know your demographics/region - I was lost in MD (the Bay down here seemed to play a major, very warm) -- I know NJ and what to expect

So with above said and going with old time thinking/storm history. I would be leery of snow potential in PA/NJ with this storm and rain snow line, don't be fooled with initial mixing.

 

Yes I drank the kool aide down here and forgot my roots, no cold air, coastal storm, March day time storms rarely happen with sun angle - if all this happened at night - different story.

 

Understand that this might be a bit colder up North... and there is a potential for some snow around the central- south NJ/ PA area - how much?  Not sure - but I just went from a 10+" winter storm warning to nothing.... Lesson Learned -- back to reading threads

Just in case I am the cause of any angst - I was referring to yesterday's model readings and analysis from MD - we all read the same thing... It was a very tough call for the METS - I forgot to apply NJ basics to MD - again lesson learned

[cast4]

I'm interested in looking at the post storm model analysis on this one. Most models were significantly off even after the storm was underway.

[Violentweatherfan]

Just in case I am the cause of any angst - I was referring to yesterday's model readings and analysis from MD - we all read the same thing... It was a very tough call for the METS - I forgot to apply NJ basics to MD - again lesson learned

I thought this was a great analysis for snow weenies to use as a reality check. Nice post.

[AlexD]

Rather disappointed with this storm.....basically just a mini sandy down here, and now looking like nary a flake of snow. I'm ready for spring.....bring on the thunderstorms....maybe we won't bust on those.

[phlwx]

I'm interested in looking at the post storm model analysis on this one. Most models were significantly off even after the storm was underway.

 

We're working on some stuff.  I'm shocked how badly the GFS busted in DC...I really thought it would have a decent handle down there...maybe hit the low end of the predicted ranges, not 1/100th of the 10" call.

[rgwp96]

a book for bobby from easternpa weather authority on facebook

 

[WebBreaker63]

My apologies for any offense...and it's a banter thread...but you haven't done yourself any favors with trashing this forum.

Sir,

I have enjoyed all Philly threads throughout the years for its professionalism and knowledge, I do not see any "trashing" of this forum from the above thread. Understand that this is a "banter" thread, however I have noticed that your comment has opened up unnecessary remarks from other members. This is about weather - banter or not - and the Philly thread keeps a high standard that is noticed throughout the community.

[phlwx]

why so quiet ?  I'm guessing people are getting tired of having their posts deleted for no reason...

 

reason #1 why I rather hang in the NYC threads.

 

 

Sir,

I have enjoyed all Philly threads throughout the years for its professionalism and knowledge, I do not see any "trashing" of this forum from the above thread. Understand that this is a "banter" thread, however I have noticed that your comment has opened up unnecessary remarks from other members. This is about weather - banter or not - and the Philly thread keeps a high standard that is noticed throughout the community.

 

I think the evidence above speaks for itself.  She trashed the Philly forum for a really poor reason.  It's ok to beat up on me for my stupid comment...I'm not perfect.  That said, I don't think she did herself any favors by trashing a pretty good group of mods who aren't really that strict but do believe in quality over quantity.

 

If you prefer a group that thinks the NAM computer model is all that and thinks that there are going to be "two storms" from the coastal, there are other subforums that may be better suited for those who like that.   That type of stuff isn't welcome in this subforum by the mods...and it makes for that high standard.

 

Trashing that by saying "I guess my post is getting deleted" and other crap isn't going to do anyone any favors.

[yak]

I honestly felt sorry for the TV reporters on today's noon broadcasts.  By that time, it was pretty clear that this was going to be a non-event but half of the programming had already been committed to documenting the traditional storm preparation schlock.  They were left with standing in wet streets warning people about shoveling the "heart attack" snow while their weather folks were trying to gracefully explain how it wasn't happening.  Awkward...

 

I honestly thought the National Weather Service and some others did a pretty fair job at being conservative and explaining possible bust potential but that is certainly going to be lost on the public.  There is little recognition of how forecasts have greatly improved over the last decade or so.