tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A bit west of Wilmington, DE... few miles away from the DE, MD, PA border. Euro maybe an inch gfs about 2 nam is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know the SREFS have been bad this year, but can they possibly be this bad?? Temps aside, that's a pretty damn large difference in regards to the precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ^^^ that would be an epic fail if it didn't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Quite a few bullish members for precip. That does include snowfall as well. The SREF mean has 7 inches at Philly. 11 members are higher than the mean. So it's not a typical outlier skewed mean. I know the SREFS have been bad this year, but can they possibly be this bad?? Temps aside, that's a pretty damn large difference in regards to the precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Quite a few bullish members for precip. That does include snowfall as well. The SREF mean has 7 inches at Philly. 11 members are higher than the mean. So it's not a typical outlier skewed mean. Let me guess, the arw members are the higher outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Pretty big difference between SREF/GEFS/GFS and the Euro for DC to philly. HPC going with a blend which is the safest course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro ENS .5 is ILG-Toms River at 12z. 0z was PHL-BLM. Slight shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I know the SREFS have been bad this year, but can they possibly be this bad?? Temps aside, that's a pretty damn large difference in regards to the precip shield... lol you don't remember the nam and srefs going inch plus for the blizzard 24 hrs out...phl had like .4 total lolz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NWS Mount Holly has a really good write up on the storm Although deferred om Watches, talks about potential 12 hrs. Of snow based on 12z GFS. Anyone look at the tide tables....DE/MD/SNJ beaches are gonna take a pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nice hit on the nam ewr-south. Might be rain to start at Phl. This is the nam I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Nam close to a inch of liquid through 84 at still coming. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is better it looks? AccuWx precip maps show it changing over to snow between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I see we've gotten desperate enough to grasp onto the 72-84 hour 18Z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 NAM is better it looks? AccuWx precip maps show it changing over to snow between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Remember when the nam had Phl area to your area in 2-4 inches qpf for the bliz. That's all I'm gonna say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I see we've gotten desperate enough to grasp onto the 72-84 hour 18Z NAM... No that started yest with the posting of Nogaps. Ray I think it's time for the nam picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No one mentioned the GGEM here today that I saw, but it shifted south at 12Z. Right now back home I expect some light rain, some light snow, perhaps a minor accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Remember when the nam had Phl area to your area in 2-4 inches qpf for the bliz. That's all I'm gonna say Hey, I'm just saying the model verbatim. The people need to know! And now on spite, I'm going to post the clown map when it comes out and you're not going to delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No that started yest with the posting of Nogaps. Ray I think it's time for the nam picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I see we've gotten desperate enough to grasp onto the 72-84 hour 18Z NAM... Out of pure weenizm and lust for snow, it is time to hug the most wet and unrealistic model of our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ho hum 6-8".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 As depicted by the clown, that could only be half the total. The storm deepens and drifts NE between 78 and 84. The future panels likely have much more precip. But it's the NAM with no EC support. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Let me guess, the arw members are the higher outputs? Nice mix actually. I was surprised by the SREF today but that made the 18z NAM outcome predictable. I don't think this is set in stone though I think 33% chance of something more bullish like GEFS/SREF/ 18 z nam 67% chance more like a EC or GFS run for the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gfs coming way north. Phases energy with ull. Not just the nam and srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 18z GFS looks similar to GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 988 crushing sne. Temps I'm not to sure. But with more phasing its a whole new ball game. Close to a inch Phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Gotta see when/if the changeover occurs for PHL-south. EDIT* AccuWx maps have it rain all the way through 78 hours and no sign of a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This could end up being worse than Sandy for coastal areas from Atlantic City southward into Delaware. (areas relatively spared in October) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Precip starting around sunrise would limit daytime heating prior to the storm Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 sv maps gets 4-8 into chesco...2-4 into delco and maybe phl co and extreme sw montco and southern berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.