tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z gefs are the wettest they have been so far. Gets 1 inch line past Phl and ttn. Also has 1.25-1.5 in central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Verbatim... its rain. The inititial precip thump would be rain based on thermals? What about the backside? That is a very potent CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The inititial precip thump would be rain based on thermals? What about the backside? That is a very potent CCB. rain, you bl is torched upper 30s to low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 rain, you bl is torched upper 30s to low 40s I would suspect a non-accumulating wet snow. BL is not everything and would cool down with surface winds out of the NNE. Too much wasted precip, it's a shame this event waited untill March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The inititial precip thump would be rain based on thermals? What about the backside? That is a very potent CCB. A lot of unknown precip on the soundings with 925 temps at 0 C from philly south and east. Mainly snow north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I would suspect a non-accumulating wet snow. BL is not everything and would cool down with surface winds out of the NNE. Too much wasted precip, it's a shame this event waited untill March. its not even you surface temp. the 925mb temps are above freezing for your area also...That is almost like 2000 ft of air that is abv freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A lot of unknown precip on the soundings with 925 temps at 0 C from philly south and east. Mainly snow north and west. actually way down in Cape may 3-4 C surface temps which is about 38 F, Melting snow flakes by the time they get to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 12z gefs are the wettest they have been so far. Gets 1 inch line past Phl and ttn. Also has 1.25-1.5 in central nj. The idv are all amp up. Gets preciep to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Imho, we are going to need at least .5 of qpf or higher to get any chance of snowfall that sticks. Areas that see the .5 of qpf or more are going to have to have elev of 300 ft or higher and be away from i95 corridor. Areas under 300 ft may see snow but i doubt it will amount to much. This all assuming the gfs modeled qpf is right or it continues to tcik north a little. Now if things continue to bump north and that ccb gets in here, then its another game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 its not even you surface temp. the 925mb temps are above freezing for your area also...That is almost like 2000 ft of air that is abv freezing I'm not overly familiar with thermal layers but wouldn't the 850mb layer cool the 925mb layer with heavy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The idv are all amp up. Gets preciep to Maine they are basically on their own. I would take a blend of the euro and gfs and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not overly familiar with thermal layers but wouldn't the 850mb layer cool the 925mb layer with heavy precip? To a degree, but the wind direction is hurting you without a solid airmass in place. There is no source of advecting cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 they are basically on there own. I would take a blend of the euro and gfs and call it a day Way to early to call that IMHO. South or north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Way to early to call that IMHO. South or north not one model matches that mean outpout, it's a total outlier. Till it has support you disregard it , but you do keep it in the back of your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Way to early to call that IMHO. South or north Track for the last day has been very consistent on the GFS, last 2 days on Euro. Might "tick" north or south a bit but the storm's onshore and players are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is further north with the bowling bowl through 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is further north with the bowling bowl through 54 hrs not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 if anything storm is tracking faster by quite a bit on euro. North is probably 15-20 mile nudge at most. looks like the Euro might be 6 hours ahead at 12z in location than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 if anything storm is tracking faster by quite a bit on euro. North is probably 15-20 mile nudge at most. looks like the Euro might be 6 hours ahead at 12z in location than 0z. The transfer is further south. Weak costal at hr 84. Preciep extent is further north up to Ttn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The transfer is further south. Weak costal at hr 84. Preciep extent is further north up to Ttn. It was to Burlington in the last run and that .05 to .1 will probably be virga, flurries, sprinkles, or graupel. Don't get your hopes up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 .25 gets to Phl this run and the preciep shield is more expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It was to Burlington in the last run and that .05 to .1 will probably be virga, flurries, sprinkles, or graupel. Don't get your hopes up... Don't worry I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Even the DC people should be worried. Warm is the name of the game. you're gonna need intense snowfall rates to get accumulations south of, say, Harrisburg-Frederick-Leesburg or thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This isn't really a set-up that screams virga to me, at least not down here. NYC, yes, as there is a significant dry pouch farther north, but I don't think virga will be the most depressing aspect of the storm down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does anyone have the clown maps for the Gfs, NAM, and ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does anyone have the clown maps for the Gfs, NAM, and ECMWF? Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've only been on this forum for a few months now and don't really know much but I'm learning. Just your average snow lover but if there is anything I learned in the past couple months it's that if models are agreeing on a solution 6 days out, it's most likely NOT gonna hold up. Maybe it's just the weenie in me but I would bet there will be another big shift before Wednesday. Whether it's good or bad for us I obviously have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Where do you live? A bit west of Wilmington, DE... few miles away from the DE, MD, PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Srefs are wet. Fwiw. Not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I've only been on this forum for a few months now and don't really know much but I'm learning. Just your average snow lover but if there is anything I learned in the past couple months it's that if models are agreeing on a solution 6 days out, it's most likely NOT gonna hold up. Maybe it's just the weenie in me but I would bet there will be another big shift before Wednesday. Whether it's good or bad for us I obviously have no clue. We're inside 72 hours now, and the models are pretty tightly clustered on a track that favors DC (precip wise, at least) and not so much anyone north of ILG or thereabouts. There could be some minor adjustments in the extent of the precip shield or in thermals, but major changes would be surprising at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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