RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The .01 area doesn't really count as a precip shield considering that would just be drizzle if it even were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEM back north again. Hard to buy into that Chicago gets heavy precip and the storm tracks to our south. Don't think I've ever seen that. Let me just point out though that I drove home from Valpo for spring break today, so this would make perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it's south south compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 berg road trip pending to the south, 0z nailing the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it's south south compared to 18z. extra south? that can't be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its a little north in the midwest but further south in our area. Big QPF gradient from DC to Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 We're still a good 96hrs out, but if anything, I'm betting this ticks a little south in future runs. That UUL just doesn't want to budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmmm CMC shows rainstorm for all!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it's south south compared to 18z. Discounting the 18z GFS, which most tend to do,...Comparing the 12z run to 0z, the heavier qpf axis has shifted north a bit, and there is an expansion of the more moderate precip north and east. Can still clearly see the effect of that trough per 0z as there is virtually nothing in south Jersey and up towards Philly, and quite a gradient from NE MD ad N. DE to areas SW of there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HurricaneHallett Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A rather simple outlook, helps me understand the setup. They stress that tomorrow is the day when we will first grasp the new data from the energy. http://geoea.org/2013/03/02/possible-major-snowstorm-for-east-preview-explained/. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hmmm CMC shows rainstorm for all!! LOL I am sure the folks in central VA are excited, but it remains to be seen how much of that falls as snow. Its going to be sopping wet snow once it changes over so those 12 inch+ amounts on the model clown maps will likely be more like 4-6 inches. Helps a bit that it may time well for the heaviest precip occurring Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest HurricaneHallett Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Predictions for the ECMWF? Also, what are thoughts on the GFS and the way it handled the precipitation shield on the northern extent. Think that this slides North around 50 miles. Handling of the ULL was weird IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 A rather simple outlook, helps me understand the setup. They stress that tomorrow is the day when we will first grasp the new data from the energy. http://geoea.org/2013/03/02/possible-major-snowstorm-for-east-preview-explained/. Thoughts? Regardless of set-up, it's still irresponsible to call for major accumulations in the big cities. The bl is warm, and accumulations southeast of the Fall Line are anything but a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 HM, I saw you post in another thread that you were happy the models lost that northern lobe over the lakes that the GFS was phasing yesterday. While its true without it forecasting becomes easier, but I am surprised you werent rooting that on because with that the storm could have been something special ya know. I'm not sure what you're talking about. I have zero emotion invested into forecasting this thing. Things became much clearer, as far as storm evolution, once the models got rid of that ridiculous solution with the Great Lakes wave. Let's be clear: the phasing scenario was spitting out modeled solutions that generally were out to sea and/or over-amplified to the point where rain was being fluxed in. Phasing doesn't work perfectly, statistically, and it would have likely yielded an out to sea track. The main wave would have stayed resistant longer, being shunted out to sea. It would not have been something special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GEFS shifted back north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's becoming pretty clear that our shorelines are going to suffer again. This is definitely something to discuss this time tomorrow; but, the 00z models so far look pretty bad, to me, for the shore. I think that is the number 1 issue for our region with a wet snow pasting likely for our SW zones being second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's becoming pretty clear that our shorelines are going to suffer again. This is definitely something to discuss this time tomorrow; but, the 00z models so far look pretty bad, to me, for the shore. I think that is the number 1 issue for our region with a wet snow pasting likely for our SW zones being second. I agree. Just what the shore doesn't need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 euro is pretty lame... i'll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't the ensemble mean of any model prone to over-smooth features, such as sharp cut offs in precip? (If you can't tell yet, I'm overtly pessimistic about this storm, probably as a result of these past two winters.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Isn't the ensemble mean of any model prone to over-smooth features, such as sharp cut offs in precip? Yes, this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the snow comes down hard enough it sticks at normal rates once the 1st inch is on the ground. Had that last march only days after tornadoes and 70's back in KY, ratios with that event were actually over 10:1. I would think 7-10:1 with the storm upcoming. Looks like 34-36 degree snow for those under the hvy precip band. I could see something like ABE 38 and light rain with hvy snow and 34 at MIV. It can (and has) stuck in April so time of year is immaterial if precip is heavy enough...but if we're on the northern edge (which most of us will be)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Will be in N MD for this one and will see about the snow fall/rain they are talking about down there. Absolutely spot on with potential for an ugly situation at the NJ coast. All we don't need is for a heavy wet March snow and any wind - between any type of flooding and forget accumulation on the ground it is any clinging snow on the trees and limbs that I am worried about. Still a couple days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Regardless of set-up, it's still irresponsible to call for major accumulations in the big cities. The bl is warm, and accumulations southeast of the Fall Line are anything but a sure bet. To be fair, they said potential. It's a hype comment but they didn't say "likely".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro and GFS are very, very similar w/ this thing at this point. I really don't think anyone north of the PA Turnpike/195 sees more than sprinkles/graupel/flurries...perhaps a brief round of light rain. Virga will win north of there despite radar hallucinations to the contrary. Probably the "best" shot at any accumulations will be south of Dover-Ocean City NJ, and west of Dover to Harrisburg...and only within any heavy banding that pushes through. Might be a situation where some spots vary a bit from a sloppy mix to a few inches within the heavy band across inland areas. I do think it *can* snow to the coast down across the Delmarva, southern Sussex County DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Big qpf gradient SW of phl on the 06 gfs: phl - 0.29, ilg - .57, 0.75-1.00 in NE md, . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nice bump for S. Jersey / DEL on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nice bump for S. Jersey / DEL on the 12Z GFS Verbatim... its rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 too bad this storm wasn't three weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On my sv maps 2-4 gets to chesco and extreme western delco maybe tickles extreme sw montco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On my sv maps 2-4 gets to chesco and extreme western delco maybe tickles extreme sw montco and Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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