Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Navgem is -3 to -4 850's for Phl. Should be a wet paste job for suburbs Link? Also, we would have to be under the heaviest VVs to get snow to accumulate. Just because we get .1-.4 doesn't mean squat. If we don't get under the deformation zone in the city it won't accumulate/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs have .5 up to Ttn and .25 up to NYC. Navgem is posted in NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link? Also, we would have to be under the heaviest VVs to get snow to accumulate. Just because we get .1-.4 doesn't mean squat. If we don't get under the deformation zone in the city it won't accumulate/snow. I feel everyone is very aware of that. We need the trend north to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 we are definitely in trouble if the nogaps is being talked about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nice wasted storm if we're going to get over a half inch of QPF and spit out a coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Just wondering if the way things look now if it would be possible for the modeled block to relax or reorient enough so the low could move uo the coast to give DC, Philly, NY and SNE good snow. If not, I am rooting for DC and Philly. Both deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 we are definitely in trouble if the nogaps is being talked about The GFS is not doing much better, it was all over the map yesterday but it's been alittle more steady today.. I think the nogaps got an upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco has wet snow arriving Wed around noon with it getting heavy just after dark with temps at or just above freezing. Certainly looks like an elevation special at this time. Currently has between 6" to 8" of wet snow by the time it ends Thursday AM.....of course we have seen this before a few days before only to have it fade a bit by verification time. Of course the one thing going for the storm is I am heading to Phillies Spring Training on Wednesday morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SREF mean is North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SREF's at this range are about as reliable as the NAM at this range. Hey Paul, looks like your Sea Isle station is where it should be http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 SREF's at this range are about as reliable as the NAM at this range. Hey Paul, looks like your Sea Isle station is where it should be http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e But fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Thanks to you!! SREF's at this range are about as reliable as the NAM at this range. Hey Paul, looks like your Sea Isle station is where it should be http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e'>http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 nice wasted storm if we're going to get over a half inch of QPF and spit out a coating of snow. depends where...phl yes. You get a place like my work or pauls locale that has 500 ft of elev or higher it will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Or my backyard with 1" snowfall rates to bring down the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Or my backyard with 1" snowfall rates to bring down the cold air. Of course with the limited cold air what would be 1"/hour might be more like 0.5"/hour on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the snow comes down hard enough it sticks at normal rates once the 1st inch is on the ground. Had that last march only days after tornadoes and 70's back in KY, ratios with that event were actually over 10:1. I would think 7-10:1 with the storm upcoming. Looks like 34-36 degree snow for those under the hvy precip band. I could see something like ABE 38 and light rain with hvy snow and 34 at MIV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the snow comes down hard enough it sticks at normal rates once the 1st inch is on the ground. Had that last march only days after tornadoes and 80's back in KY. Looks like 34-36 degree snow for those under the hvy precip band. I could see something like ABE 38 and light rain with hvy snow and 34 at MIV. like what we had back in early november with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If the snow comes down hard enough it sticks at normal rates once the 1st inch is on the ground. Had that last march only days after tornadoes and 80's back in KY. Looks like 34-36 degree snow for those under the hvy precip band. I could see something like ABE 38 and light rain with hvy snow and 34 at MIV. Maybe you misunderstand me... but if its 33F ratios will still be low and what would be a better rate at sub-freezing temps will not be as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 like what we had back in early november with that storm. Ratios were craptastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ratios were craptastic. they usually are when you have puke for an airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 they usually are when you have puke for an airmass. If Phl goes owe that 3" mark from the time of that poll, it doesn't count against me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0Z NAM info: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z SUN MAR 03 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014291765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278016/BDA - PART B IS MISSING91334/TKK - PART B IS MISSING04339/OBY - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Maybe you misunderstand me... but if its 33F ratios will still be low and what would be a better rate at sub-freezing temps will not be as good. True. Ratios at or below 10:1 but the snow sticks if precip is heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 State college NWS pulling for a north trend too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 System has been trending north/stronger in the midwest. Good thing we have strong blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 System has been trending north/stronger in the midwest. Good thing we have strong blocking Indeed, there is a finite north movement that is capped by the blocking maritime low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 precip shield is much farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 precip shield is much farther north looks a good bit further south, and pretty much cut in half qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 precip shield is much farther north looks a good bit further south, and pretty much cut in half qpf wise. One of you is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One of you is right 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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