chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 3-4 days out, modeling for our area is similar to 12/18/09 and 2/5/10 with convergence keeping heavy precip just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 3-4 days out, modeling for our area is similar to 12/18/09 and 2/5/10 with convergence keeping heavy precip just to the south. I don't have anything saved from 12/18/09, but I do have a few things from 2/5/10 and at least some runs of the GFS did bullseye the Mason/Dixon 4 days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For those who care about the Euro the nudge to the north was minimal and was mostly with precip shield. It was weaker though...and that's been a bit of a trend in modeling...EC barely brings it below 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 let's also knock out the 12/19/09 and 2/5/10 comparisons now. There is no southern energy in this storm...whole different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GEFS are substantially further north than the operational and it isn't just a fluke couple of members. They did trend south though. 0Z had almost an inch up to TTN while 12Z has a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't have anything saved from 12/18/09, but I do have a few things from 2/5/10 and at least some runs of the GFS did bullseye the Mason/Dixon 4 days before. After checking to refresh my memory, you are right about 2/5/10 it was more a case of QPF increasing in our area than a shift to the N. There was a N shift though in 12/09. My only point is that this could easily wiggle a little N in next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 euro ens mean gets .5 up to phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 euro ens mean gets .5 up to phl. How's that compare with 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How's that compare with 0Z? not sure, i just saw it in another forum. But from what i read the mean ticked nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 not sure, i just saw it in another forum. But from what i read the mean ticked nw How does that compare to Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How does that compare to Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 tonight 00z euro n GFS do not need to come that far north to get philly in on the action. When the energy gets sampled i believe we will see a different solution than currently modeled. Not a massive change but enough to get some decent qpf to Trenton and maybe further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How does that compare to Op run the operational had about .25 or so in phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 tonight 00z euro n GFS do not need to come that far north to get philly in on the action. When the energy gets sampled i believe we will see a different solution than currently modeled. Not a massive change but enough to get some decent qpf to Trenton and maybe further north. imho the storm has nothing to do with it. It all comes down to how strong that confluence is. You need that to lift out some, if not areas further south get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 imho the storm has nothing to do with it. It all comes down to how strong that confluence is. You need that to lift out some, if not areas further south get it. yeah your right we need the confluence to push out of there. But regardless Philly is still very close to getting a decent event here. And with 4 days and multiple model runs left anything is still on the table imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 imho the storm has nothing to do with it. It all comes down to how strong that confluence is. You need that to lift out some, if not areas further south get it. It also would help if the storm was a little slower and wrapped-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colette11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Per Glen. GLENN "HURRICANE" SCHWARTZ Published: Mar 2, 2013, 4:15 PM You have to enjoy suspense to be a meteorologist-at least the ones who forecast for a living. It’s exciting to wait for the latest piece of data to come in to (we hope) shed more light on a coming storm. That suspense doesn’t stop when we leave our workplace. In the old days, there was nothing to look at once we left the building-no computers, no Weather Channel. Nothing. Now, we can see practically every bit on information at home or on the phone ANYWHERE. Hey, isn’t this my day off? I’m at the shore visiting my father, but can’t escape. THE LATEST So what has changed since yesterday? The computer models are getting more consistent (even the usually inconsistent American-GFS-model). There is going to be a storm along the East Coast Wednesday, with a lot of wind. Some state or states in the East will see places smashed with snow. Coastal flooding and beach erosion will be a threat. But where? The blocking pattern mentioned yesterday is still crucial. It will prevent the storm from tracking right up the coast, as so many Nor’easters do. The tendency is to push it to the Southeast and then East into the Atlantic. With that kind of track, only a relatively small area will feel the brunt of the storm. There will be a sharp cut-off on the north side from no snow to heavy snow. This means that the Philadelphia area is likely to be near the northern edge of the snow and strong winds. Best chances of significant snow should be in Delaware, with the heaviest snow in the mountains somewhere from Maryland to Virginia. Yes, it looks like we’ll be on the edge again. We were on the southern edge of the heavy snow in the New England blizzard last month. Now it’s the opposite, thanks to that blocking pattern. “WHAT DOES THE EUROPEAN MODEL SAY?” I’m starting to get asked that question more and more from viewers and tweeters. After hearing me talk about it on-air and in blogs ahead of Sandy, and in the controversy afterward, a lot of people know that the computers from Europe crushed the good old USA model in the Sandy forecast. CRUSHED IT! The EURO also beat the American GFS model for the New England blizzard. And, what a surprise!-the EURO was the first to suggest a big storm somewhere along the East Coast last week. The GFS was consistently squashing it southward to the Georgia coast, and then suddenly changed its tune a couple of days ago. We are now less than 4 days from the event, so the GFS and other models tend to converge, as they are doing now. The main European this afternoon shows a similar solution to what it showed for the past couple of days-a North Carolina/East track that would leave much of our area high and dry (but kind of windy). But the even more reliable “Ensembles” of the EURO are a bit farther north, bringing snow into at least part of our area. The Ensembles are an average of running the EURO 51 times. Any individual model run can go off on a tangent (known as “Chaos Theory”), but averaging eliminates that and scores better overall. SO, HOW MUCH SNOW FOR MY NEIGHBORHOOD? Since we’re on the edge, it’s too soon to tell. It sure looks like parts of Virginia (and maybe southern MD and part of NC) will get the most. But for us, the suspense continues another day-at least. Well, there goes my day off Sunday…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z gfs has ticked N a little. Low near norfolk at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .75 is to Phl this run. Confluence moved out faster. Dca suburbs look to get pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z gfs has ticked N a little. Low near norfolk at 96 sounding wise its mainly rain or rain snow mix for phl and a good bit of the immediate burbs without decent elev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Nice step up in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .75 is to Phl this run. Confluence moved out faster. Dca suburbs look to get pounded yea leesburg area gets hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 sounding wise its mainly rain or rain snow mix for phl and a good bit of the immediate burbs. We need heavier preciep but I feel this is a start. Just outside dca gets pounded. Confluence moves out faster and little more phasing all very positive signs imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lancaster area gets hits very nicely on gfs. Looks like 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We need heavier preciep but I feel this is a start. Just outside dca gets pounded. Confluence moves out faster and little more phasing all very positive signs imo Yup, getting real close. Looks like bullseye is extreme NW Va. Good snows extend into S central Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18z navgem looks to crush central nj and Phl area. Don't have a idea on temps, so this is fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Navgem is -3 to -4 850's for Phl. Should be a wet paste job for suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Surface is really warm according to the 18z GFS. Is that really accumulating snow for anyone in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Surface is really warm according to the 18z GFS. Is that really accumulating snow for anyone in our area? some places do, but majority is mix. you need elevation or get into the heavier precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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