wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Here is the wwa NJZ009-010-012>015-062100-/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.130306T2100Z-130307T1100Z/HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON423 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO6 AM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHWEST PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS...BERKS COUNTY AND THE WESTERN LEHIGH VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.* TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY AND LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD START TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND END TONIGHT.* IMPACTS...EXPECT SLUSHY TRAVELING CONDITIONS WITH THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. GREATER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ON SMALLER ROADWAYS. SNOW COULD ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE TOO. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The advisory for berks just went from 3-5 to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 6z GFS says lol to your snowfall in the city and points east/north...mostly c-1...if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS has flurries, while NAM has 6-8" by daybreak tomorrow. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 nam still shows more on friday, epic fail pending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 nam still shows more on friday, epic fail pending? The NAM needs a vacation and a tuneup/overall before more electrons are used on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 9z srefs have 1" up to philly including an inverted trough somewhere over epa it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM comes east slightly, cuts QPF from west to east. EDIT* Precip maps have it over to snow by 21z(4:00) throughout the area save the immediate shore. A little quicker than previous runs for S & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes, everyone and their dead relatives knew that the NAM was nuts but it still delivers banding and decent omega for portion of the area when it counts (later this afternoon/evening). I have to look at things further but there is decent QPF still with the banding. The offshore convection doesn't rob the 900-700mb RH like it did on the GFS. I guess we'll find out. I could see Mt Holly's forecast working out in the S-C NJ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How realistic are these backlash bands coming back over NJ/PA Thursday into Friday? Seems silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How are things looking back home? FWIW, the NAM had us getting around 10"+ of snow; we ended up with about 2". That model is just plain awful. Out of curiosity, did any of the high-res, short-term models indicate a dry slot yesterday or today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How realistic are these backlash bands coming back over NJ/PA Thursday into Friday? Seems silly. How realistic are these backlash bands coming back over NJ/PA Thursday into Friday? Seems silly. it's an inverted trough feature due to a piece of the northern stream digging in, the euro has it too. Just not as robust as the nam. (surprise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Current Mt. Holly map (used the day 1 image since the storm-total image doesn't seem to have been updated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Right now evidence is mounting that it snows more tomorrow night back home, than it does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Bummer not even gonna get an inch now...last night it had 4-6 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Right now evidence is mounting that it snows more tomorrow night back home, than it does tonight. Yep, and the interesting thing about that is none of the local media outlets have pointed out tomorrow night at all. I think most I saw was something along the line of "a few left over snow showers". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Probably should go with a few snow showers as they're not left over if nothing precedes them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Right now evidence is mounting that it snows more tomorrow night back home, than it does tonight. I'd bet that norlurn sets up shop north of TTN. Just a hunch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'd bet that norlurn sets up shop north of TTN. Just a hunch though. You could be right, I haven't looked closely at it, probably wont' til today's stuff is done with... cuz I'm tired and lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I hate to say I called it, but... Even the DC people should be worried. Warm is the name of the game. you're gonna need intense snowfall rates to get accumulations south of, say, Harrisburg-Frederick-Leesburg or thereabouts. (ok so in reality there's plenty of 2-4" reports between that line and I-95 but the point is that DC proper is getting killed with bl temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I hate to say I called it, but... (ok so in reality there's plenty of 2-4" reports between that line and I-95 but the point is that DC proper is getting killed with bl temps) yeah even Dulles changed over to plain rain, which even I find a little surprising. The models underplayed the low-level warmth with this one. Now, in the mtns west of there, some reports go as high as 20 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Current Mt. Holly map (used the day 1 image since the storm-total image doesn't seem to have been updated) Ray, I'm not sure what you mean in your post above. Is your map the one that is supposed to be displayed? When I refresh the web site with Mt Holly's map, it still shows the snowlicious map from earlier with 2-4" for me south of the C&D Canal near the MD border. My point-and-click also says 1-3" this afternoon and 1-2" tonight. I'm just wondering if I should pull my fork out of this storm and start crossing my fingers again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ray, I'm not sure what you mean in your post above. Is your map the one that is supposed to be displayed? When I refresh the web site with Mt Holly's map, it still shows the snowlicious map from earlier with 2-4" for me south of the C&D Canal near the MD border. My point-and-click also says 1-3" this afternoon and 1-2" tonight. I'm just wondering if I should pull my fork out of this storm and start crossing my fingers again. If you look here... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php You'll notice the storm total graphic has an update time of 0923 UTC (423 AM). Then if you go here... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Scroll down to the bottom left... you'll see the map I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If you look here... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php You'll notice the storm total graphic has an update time of 0923 UTC (423 AM). Then if you go here... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Scroll down to the bottom left... you'll see the map I posted. Thanks - what I suspected. The storm can keep my fork. At least it's nice to go outside and hear the sound of wind in the trees. I've missed that over the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I hate to say I called it, but... (ok so in reality there's plenty of 2-4" reports between that line and I-95 but the point is that DC proper is getting killed with bl temps) Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Hey, I think the NAM may have finally figured out that nothing is going to happen tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 For anyone interested, my preliminary thoughts/speculation on what went wrong in DC: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39625-this-is-the-worst-bust-i-have-ever-experienced-by-far/?p=2204408 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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