Thunder Road Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 500mb hgts combined with mslp Ah, ok. I thought you were trying to indicate sea level pressure was plotted on an isobaric surface, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well, wraparound or CCB, they're kinda the same. also, there's some enhancement from the shortwave dropping down from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 also, there's some enhancement from the shortwave dropping down from the lakes. That's really the second wave that comes through Thursday night. Which, I'll add, my "coating to 2 inches" forecast does *not* include. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Do I think it will happen this time? No, I'm in the Famartin Camp on this one, and agree with his conservative numbers. I just want to make sure everyone remembers: My thoughts are always TTN specific, unless otherwise specified. Your milage may vary. Past performance is no indication of future results (to borrow a Tony Gigi line ). I've been wrong this season so don't jump in my camp too gingerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the nam maintains an arc of convection which feeds into the system while the gfs splits a piece offshore and robs our area. if the 00z models don't change we'll know which is right by 7z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County above 600ft Light snow by 3am temp 33.0 Mod snow 6am temp 32.3 (1.0" snow accum so far) 9am - snow temp 31.3 (2.8") 12pm - snow temp 31.9 (5.2") 3pm - snow temp 32.0 (7.1") 6pm - snow temp 31.6 (8.5") 9pm - snow temp 31.4 (9.4") 12am - snow temp 31.3 (10.2") 4am - snow winding down total accumulation around 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That would be a great storm for you if it panned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is still prolific with the front-end band. 0.5" at phl by 10 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM has (almost)everyone changing over to snow by 7:00 PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM has also cut back on QPF for our region as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM made a major cut at TTN for what actually falls as snow... looks like 3-6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM made a major cut at TTN for what actually falls as snow... looks like 3-6 now. it needs another run before it gets into its range lolz. I still think its to wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It seems to linger snow showers/bands through late morning Thursday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It seems to linger snow showers/bands through late morning Thursday as well. That's not really a change, the last couple have done that too, though by midday Thursday it won't be sticking anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 it needs another run before it gets into its range lolz. I still think its to wet. Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's not really a change, the last couple have done that too, though by midday Thursday it won't be sticking anymore. But that's already after school/work has been cancelled so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 decent run for the phl metro area. may not be 20 inches, but looks like 6-10 if you get some decent banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 decent run for the phl metro area. may not be 20 inches, but looks like 6-10 if you get some decent banding PHL proper, based on the NAM, is more like 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM in general is 4-6" with lollis to 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Monmouth/Ocean jackpot just won't go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nice run for the shore area.. mount holly new map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nice run for the shore area.. mount holly new map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Did they just copy the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Did they just copy the NAM? This has been out all day. A great example of good forecasting. These totals weren't supported by any models until now; NAM was major snow and GFS was a minor event. If I were making a forecast I would lock this map in as my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It (as depicted right now) was not out all day. This is the third iteration I have seen today. It was 1-2/2-4" this morning area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 21Z SREF plumes are down to 5" TTN, 4" PHL for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Then a few more Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 plumes are actually a little better for kblm then they where before, must be trending colder.. little more then 10" for kblm by 12z fri.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Odd that Broad street is the dividing line through most of Philly on that Mount Holly snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It (as depicted right now) was not out all day. This is the third iteration I have seen today. It was 1-2/2-4" this morning area wide Perhaps I am confusing the second and third iteration. I was referring to the map put out before 18z depicting widespread 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS still cutting totals for SE PA. some stations are going to bust high. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS holds firm. A coating at home, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.