Heisy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HM & Ray, the last few runs of the NAM and 4km NAM continue to show an epic convective line of precip that forms around Southern DE around 1-4pm tomorrow... 18z NAM 4km 12z 1) Do you think its real? 2) If so, could this drastically improve snowfall chances for Southern NJ? Is this like a gravity wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter weather advisory just issued for LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter storm watch now for Gloucester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Storm watch for phl. Advisorys and watches both for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter weather advisory just issued for LV Not all of the LV... Northampton county was not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5 for Berks....not getting my hopes up. But I would love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottium Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Got a WSW issues for 4-7 here in Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would love to hear a Mount Holly met's reasoning for not including Northampton, Carbon, Monroe in the WWA... not disagreeing in any way, but just curious. Perhaps due to later start time there (my guess)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They really believe in this thing. They upped accums while models generally show the opposite. I venture a guess that the SREF are getting the numbers up as they have stayed relatively amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HM & Ray, the last few runs of the NAM and 4km NAM continue to show an epic convective line of precip that forms around Southern DE around 1-4pm tomorrow... 18z NAM nam.gif 4km 12z nam2.gif 1) Do you think its real? 2) If so, could this drastically improve snowfall chances for Southern NJ? Is this like a gravity wave? I posted this in the banter thread by mistake. Here: The placement, expansive-nature and amounts on the NAM from the banding feature (no it is not a gravity wave) are most likely wrong. The only thing you should take from it is the potential for a nasty band. The band is simply convection in this case (yes you heard me, lol). 1. The occluded front produces deep layer convergence in this area. 2. Influx of moisture is still available 3. Cold air aloft with mid-upper level low / cold air overhead underneath a low-level warm anomaly/warm seclusion trying to form. The combination will produce convective banding along this feature. A surprise or two is possible in the southern portions of our area with this but I'm not sure how far north it can get. The global models say, "not far." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Guys take the wwa/watches/warnings questioning of criterias to the banter thread not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 18z GFS has pushed the front end snow a little further east. Clown map gets 2" into delco, 1" into W NJ.and a good portion of De Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 18z GFS has pushed the front end snow a little further east. Clown map gets 2" into delco, 1" into W NJ.and a good portion of De Overall its a little further north and doesn't dry out the CCB as much. Its really gonna be interesting to see what happens with this one. I'm holding my ground but the NAM and SREFs don't make me feel great about it, all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Overall its a little further north and doesn't dry out the CCB as much. Its really gonna be interesting to see what happens with this one. I'm holding my ground but the NAM and SREFs don't make me feel great about it, all the same. Tricky forecast here along M/D line with that initial band, Could be zip if band falls apart and precip is light or several inches if the band holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would love to hear a Mount Holly met's reasoning for not including Northampton, Carbon, Monroe in the WWA... not disagreeing in any way, but just curious. Perhaps due to later start time there (my guess)? I am guessing forecaster confidence on the actual amounts. But I think I see what you are getting at based on the forecast amounts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm still unenthusiastic. NBC10 going with 3-5" in the city, as is the WSW product from Mount Holly. I'm thinking 1-2" on the grass, essentially nothing on roads. Any trend north that has happened today has been exaggerated. The SREFs even shrunk back south. When has backlash snow ever over-performed? I sure hope I end up being wrong, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 FWIW... 18z RGEM is north compared to 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 When has backlash snow ever over-performed? 1/26/2011 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1/26/2011 I think. I am not optimistic on backlash either unless the globals are wrong on the further offshore track. Front end snow though could be half decent in western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No wsw or advisory's here in monmouth, mount holly does have 4-6" for wed night which is kind of surprising.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I went through my archive and could not find a case where the 500 low tracked along the NC/VA border and then due east from there, and central NJ got into good CCB action. Can someone else find one? Edit: Note the point is to find a 500 mb track that was so far away. There was one or two that started down there but got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I went through my archive and could not find a case where the 500 low tracked along the NC/VA border and then due east from there, and central NJ got into good CCB action. Can someone else find one? Edit: Note the point is to find a 500 mb track that was so far away. There was one or two that started down there but got closer. I'm not sure you can go by the past. What i mean, the storm is so spread out almost like tropical in nature. Find me a storm that is 400 miles se of sne that dumps 1-3 inches of qpf on them from the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure you can go by the past. What i mean, the storm is so spread out almost like tropical in nature. Find me a storm that is 400 miles se of sne that dumps 1-3 inches of qpf on them from the storm? The 500 low curves north towards them, missing this region. They get closer than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 500 low curves north towards them, missing this region. They get closer than you do. i only have access to the h5 mslp on the euro for 500mb maps but it shows the center of the ull well south of sne by 400 miles atleast. Unless i need the vorticity for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1/26/2011 I think. I remember it being a rain-->snow event that over-performed because of intense banding, but not so much because of wrap-around. I dunno though, I suppose the definition of wrap-around is vague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i only have access to the h5 mslp on the euro for 500mb maps but it shows the center of the ull well south of sne by 400 miles atleast. Unless i need the vorticity for that. Eh, nah you're right, its not as close as I thought. The closed contours at least get over SNE though, something that wont' happen in this region until that "second round" Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i only have access to the h5 mslp on the euro for 500mb maps but it shows the center of the ull well south of sne by 400 miles atleast. Unless i need the vorticity for that. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 huh? 500mb hgts combined with mslp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I remember it being a rain-->snow event that over-performed because of intense banding, but not so much because of wrap-around. I dunno though, I suppose the definition of wrap-around is vague. Well, wraparound or CCB, they're kinda the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not sure you can go by the past. What i mean, the storm is so spread out almost like tropical in nature. Find me a storm that is 400 miles se of sne that dumps 1-3 inches of qpf on them from the storm? With that conversation in mind when was the last time a tropical system made a hard left turn and hit NJ from the sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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