famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks Ray... and especially thanks for keeping my frustration of a lackluster Winter and over-zealous mind in check. You have valid points that simply can't be argued. No problem, I come to serve. The model differences with this one have made my head spin more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GEFS are terrible, even drier than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Alright guys have a nice spring and summer! We'll cya next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GEFS are terrible, even drier than the op. I don't think they're drier than the OP but they've made a pretty substantial shift since 0Z last night... 0Z 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Advisories and warnings just went up from the NWS in State College... was very surprised to see 2-4" advisory in Schuylkill County well to the NW of the Lehigh Valley for 2-4" and Lebanon 3-6" ... seems a bit robust, no? I was only expecting an advisory for 1-3" variety in the Berks-Lehigh-Northampton corridor later today, and I know it's a different office/jurisdiction but... 2-4" NW makes me wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I don't think they're drier than the OP but they've made a pretty substantial shift since 0Z last night... 0Z 00zgfsensemblep72072.gif 6Z 06zgfsensemblep72072.gif 12Z 12zgfsensemblep72072.gif well look where he is from and that will tell you why he thought that. I think 1-3 looks good for the region higher elev like western chesco and maybe my work could squeak out a little more with the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Advisories and warnings just went up from the NWS in State College... was very surprised to see 2-4" advisory in Schuylkill County well to the NW of the Lehigh Valley for 2-4" and Lebanon 3-6" ... seems a bit robust, no? I was only expecting an advisory for 1-3" variety in the Berks-Lehigh-Northampton corridor later today, and I know it's a different office/jurisdiction but... 2-4" NW makes me wonder. could be just for southern parts of that county, since they don't split the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No help from the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 could be just for southern parts of that county, since they don't split the county. Yeah we are under one here too, suprised as they went 5-8, according to the recent trends I'd think maybe more a WWA 2-4 but am hoping I'm wrong. * LOCATIONS...YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 could be just for southern parts of that county, since they don't split the county. Yeah we are under one here too, suprised as they went 5-8, according to the recent trends I'd think maybe more a WWA 2-4 but am hoping I'm wrong. * LOCATIONS...YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. There could be a huge difference from northern parts of county to southern parts. Very interesting storm for our area. I still like being on the fringe for these storms. The cutoffs are extreme, but if you happen to get into accumulating snows, you often end up good surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah I think I'm gonna ride on coating to 2 inches for TTN, essentially what I had yesterday. If I see a good reason to up it later, I might... but I'm not feeling compelled to do so at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone see the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone see the ECMWF? That bad eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That bad eh? Ha, no, I don't have access. Just was wondering if it offered any last glimmers of hope for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .75-1 after everything is done on thurs for Phl immediate area. .5-.75 to about lv. South jerz is 1-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .75-1 after everything is done on thurs for Phl immediate area. .5-.75 to about lv. South jerz is 1-1.5 thanks, tombo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 .75-1 after everything is done on thurs for Phl immediate area. .5-.75 to about lv. South jerz is 1-1.5 BL temps look really warm... upper levels says snow falling NW of I-95, but SFC melting. Wednesday night minor accums at the end. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 EC is torchy warm... at best it might be snow by midnight Wednesday night at PHL. 0.45" has fallen by then. Maybe 0.10" falls as snow but verbatim surface is 34. It warms up Thursday (so whatever falls on Wednesday night melts off) and then another lobe of precip rotates down Thursday night for ~0.15" more. About 0.70" at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 About 0.40" ABE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 About 0.40" ABE... Frozen 0.40"? I don't get soundings this early... sorry for the IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Frozen 0.40"? I don't get soundings this early... sorry for the IMBY No, total from early Wednesday thru Friday morning. 0.11" 7AM-7PM Wednesday, 0.06" 7PM-7AM Wednesday night, 0.00" 7AM-7PM Thursday, 0.15" 7PM-7AM Thursday night, 0.07" 7AM-7PM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No, total from early Wednesday thru Friday morning. 0.11" 7AM-7PM Wednesday, 0.06" 7PM-7AM Wednesday night, 0.00" 7AM-7PM Thursday, 0.15" 7PM-7AM Thursday night, 0.07" 7AM-7PM Friday. And the hits keep coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And the hits keep coming.... Well, one bright side is that the stuff on Thursday night actually looks solidly snow. All of a sudden just now, I had a flashback to March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Caved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So I don't know if I'm approaching this right at all, but I've been watching the thermal profiles using Twisterdata.com and I have some concerns over the surface and low level temperatures. I have here the profile for near KPTW with the 0 degree line highlighted in blue. So to me this looks like the precipitation is falling as mostly snow but then right near the surface temperatures increase to above freezing. I'm assuming this will limit the amount of accumulation, but how much??? Even with these warmer temperatures are we still able to get 2 to 4 inches? Would these be limited to grassy surfaces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Caved... Yup, good consensus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So I don't know if I'm approaching this right at all, but I've been watching the thermal profiles using Twisterdata.com and I have some concerns over the surface and low level temperatures. I have here the profile for near KPTW with the 0 degree line highlighted in blue. So to me this looks like the precipitation is falling as mostly snow but then right near the surface temperatures increase to above freezing. I'm assuming this will limit the amount of accumulation, but how much??? Even with these warmer temperatures are we still able to get 2 to 4 inches? Would these be limited to grassy surfaces? If the precip rates come down hard enough, the yes. Seems like its pretty shallow. only 308 ft of elevation though..... Also, what time of day was this sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like 1pm Wednesday on that sounding Brian....The 18z NAM continues to defy the consensus. Unbelievable this model is still used by NCEP. Horrible. This actually looks a tad wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I grabbed the 12z GFS 30 hour forecast. But it doesn't look much different 3 hours before and 3 hours after. Guess the other thing throwing off my forecast is looking at the SREFs. Again looking at KPTW snow totals are anywhere from 3 to 13 inches!! I'm just so stumped. I'm thinking of sticking with the lower amounts due to the thermal profile and my thoughts on the ground being warm. If the precip rates come down hard enough, the yes. Seems like its pretty shallow. only 308 ft of elevation though..... Also, what time of day was this sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I grabbed the 12z GFS 30 hour forecast. But it doesn't look much different 3 hours before and 3 hours after. Guess the other thing throwing off my forecast is looking at the SREFs. Again looking at KPTW snow totals are anywhere from 3 to 13 inches!! I'm just so stumped. I'm thinking of sticking with the lower amounts due to the thermal profile and my thoughts on the ground being warm. tis' better to bust low than high* GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE METS OUT THERE. Thanks god im not a forecaster by profession! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.