famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes true that was a big factor that I forgot about...but I also do recall the precip shield was much more expansive and longer lasting than the qpf forecasts would have led on. Outside of the 13" localized blow up in freehold..it was a pretty uniform 4-6" right up through where I am in Stamford CT on up to Worcester, MA Yeah I'll admit my ignorance to what happened outside of this region. I clearly recall there were some pretty high forecasts in ABE and they ended up with a trace ... further northeast I don't remember as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Heaviest GFS snow in our area is on the E shore of MD in that afternoon precip bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes true that was a big factor that I forgot about...but I also do recall the precip shield was much more expansive and longer lasting than the qpf forecasts would have led on. Outside of the 13" localized blow up in freehold..it was a pretty uniform 4-6" right up through where I am in Stamford CT on up to Worcester, MA Totally off topic but why don't you change your location then?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's the real question. Why are the American models so horribly inconsistent compared to the Euro and why isn't there more of a push to fix it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 From NCEP -- doesn't seem they're weighing the GFS much into their forecasts. ...UPR LOW MIGRATING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LWR MID-ATLCTHRU LATE WED......SYSTEM EVENTUALLY LIFTS NEWRD JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL NEWENGLAND...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12ZECMWF THRU 48 HRS (AVG CONFIDENCE)...THEN A COMBO OF THE 12ZECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN/UKMET THEREAFTER (BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE)SUFFICIENT MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A STRONG UPR LOW CURRENTLYACRS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE S AND E DURING THE NEXT24 TO 30 HRS. AT THIS PT...AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE E IS EXPECTEDWHICH CARRIES THE UPR CYCLONE RIGHT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER BEFOREMOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE WED. THEREAFTER...QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOWMUCH OF A N TURN THIS LOW WILL TAKE AS SOME MODELS MAY IMPACTCOASTAL NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ISEXPECTED FROM THE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST SEWRD THRU THEUPR GRT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-ATLC. WITH THE 00Z MODELCYCLES ROLLING IN...THE 00Z NAM/GFS HAVE INDICATED A SLGTLY SLOWER500-MB SOLN. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ASTHE SYSTEM CROSSES OFFSHORE OF SERN VA WITH THE TRENDS BEING A BITMORE PRONOUNCED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES E OF 70 DEG E LONGITUDE. ASEARLY AS 24 HRS INTO THE FCST...THE 00Z NAM IS IN LINE WITH THETIMING DISPLAYED IN THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN. MOVING FWD..THE12Z UKMET STARTS BECOMING THE WEAKEST SOLN ALOFT AS IT IS THE ONLYMODEL WHICH LACKS A 534-DM HGT CONTOUR. BY 06/1200Z...THE SFCSPAGHETTI PLOTS STILL INDICATE A SMALL DIVERGENCE IN THE PAIR OFCAMPS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE OFF TO THE NWHICH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE 21Z SREF MEAN.MEANWHILE...THE CMC ENSEMBLES ARE PLACED TO THE S WITH THE ECMWFENS MEMBERS SITTING IN THE MIDDLE ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. LOOKINGAHEAD...THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THISUPR LOW CLOSEST TO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE OTHER MODELS CARRYTHE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE E. THIS 00Z RUN OF THE GFS DID SHIFT ABIT TO THE BUT STILL KEEPS THIS MODEL AS AN OUTLIER. DURING THEFIRST 48 HRS OF THE FCST...HPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12ZECMWF BUT WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD A 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN/UKMETCOMBO THEREAFTER TO ACCT FOR GROWING DIFFERENCES OFFSHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NCEP placing stock in the GEFS and 21SREF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NCEP placing stock in the GEFS and 21SREF??[/DURING THE FIRST 48 HRS OF THE FCST...HPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF BUT WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD A 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN/UKMET COMBO THEREAFTER TO ACCT FOR GROWING DIFFERENCES OFFSHORE. They favor 0z NAM & 12Z EC upto 48h then after, due to uncertainty, favor the EC Ukie and ENS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was shocked to see some of you buying into this GFS 00z solution... did you happen to miss the convective feedback? That was the reason for the shift east. Pretty glaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE/FCST CONFIDENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF THRU 48 HRS (AVG CONFIDENCE)...THEN A COMBO OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN/UKMET THEREAFTER (BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE and just like that, the nam haters have gone quiet... 0z GFS = way weak and progressive. Thrown out before even looking at the notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope you NAM lovers realize how aweful the 00Z EC looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope you NAM lovers realize how aweful the 00Z EC looks Indeed. Things are looking less confident as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The best course for any forecaster with this storm is a cautious approach. Any aggressive solution is going to burn in this storm. Oh, and I'm all in favor of completely axeing the NAM and using its computer power and money to upgrade the GFS' resolution so we have a better domestic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6Z NAM has a noticeable south trend. Still has plenty of snow but it might be trending towards the GFS/EC camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6z NAM with 3" in the city, 8" in upper Mercer County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5" in the watch counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Updated snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gfs is just pitiful.. Less than .5" to se pa. The pivot just screws us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hpc has a moderate chance of at least 4" http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gfs is just pitiful.. Less than .5" to se pa. The pivot just screws us. could snow light all day and not stick. that would be the lolz for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Im not surprised I'm all aboard on the solution too! Going for a C-1" in immediate SEPA region (Phl,montgo, bucks, delco, chesco). I'm all in on a screw job. Hope I crash and burn, but I'm not going to. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 6Z GFS continues the trend from 0Z of having the swing northward further off shore, preventing the heavy precip with the CCB from impacting the region in a meaningful way (i.e., as accumulating snow). I'm not even certain it produces an inch of snow back home, precip is so light at night when it finally gets cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well after looking at the models..Very tough forecast for sure.. The critical part will be how the heavy bands pivot with this storm, which I don't think the models don't have a good handle on.. I think we could see higher snowfall amounts over extreme southeast PA and interior portions of South Jersey and Delaware,where 4 to 8 inches is possible. That's assuming if those heavy bands rotate into these areas. If not, then lower amounts are possible. Best snowfall accumulations would be Wednesday night. There's no question that we'll have look at those mesoscale models tonight and on Wednesday to see how this storm will evolve. No doubt this will be a very challenging forcast for snowfall given the time of year..As we focus on the snow, the other nasty facet to the storm will be coastal flooding and the wind.. If we get those heavy bands Wednesay night and those strong gusty winds, you would almost have blizzard like conditions..Plus the potential for power outages due to the heavy snow..Yep plenty to look over. You it's one thing to look at the models, but we'll finally see how this all verifies and and why, which this is why we love forecasting and tracking the weather..We always learn so much from these events.. No doubt we will on this storm, which gets going today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I were re-doing my map from last night right now I'd probably trim back the 2-5 in the Poconos to 1-3 and just leave the rest where it is, maybe shift the "red zone" for banding down along a AC-Dover axis. Other than that, let er' ride as is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really like your snowfall map, especially where you note if ee get the heavy snow bands.. Still should be a great storm to track.. Wonder how many folks will lose power with this storm.. Anyway..Onto the 12z model runs.. If I were re-doing my map from last night right now I'd probably trim back the 2-5 in the Poconos to 1-3 and just leave the rest where it is, maybe shift the "red zone" for banding down along a AC-Dover axis. Other than that, let er' ride as is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One other thing...the SREF's were pretty awful with the Feb blizzard for us...had us at 4-6, 4-8 consistently before fizzling back at the end. Was not impressed with them on the whole and don't really feel good going with them. BTW, the RPM is going nuts on the 6z run (has N/W getting 12"+ again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The best course for any forecaster with this storm is a cautious approach. Any aggressive solution is going to burn in this storm. Oh, and I'm all in favor of completely axeing the NAM and using its computer power and money to upgrade the GFS' resolution so we have a better domestic model. NAM has lots of uses inside 24 hours for things that aren't forecasting QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Well TWC says 4-8 for the LV lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If I were re-doing my map from last night right now I'd probably trim back the 2-5 in the Poconos to 1-3 and just leave the rest where it is, maybe shift the "red zone" for banding down along a AC-Dover axis. Other than that, let er' ride as is... Good Luck with the call. Yet another difficult forecast for pro's and met's. So glad I just sit back and watch all of you try to make these calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Agree with the cautious approach. There will be a period of snow late tonight in Ne Md, Chester, Lanco and perhaps further east. After that it will depend on whether good banding makes it into this area. There could be jackpot like the early Nov noreaster while everyone else is rain. Hopefully the guidance will tighten up today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM mix for NW Chesco above 600ft Snow begining by 3am getting moderate by 6am and heavy by 9am - heaviest snow during mid-day and afternoon. Total snow 7" to 9" temps getting no higher than 32.2 at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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