AvantHiatus Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why are you here now, then? I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane. I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why are you here now, then? I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane. More levelheadedness with less weenie outbursts in this forum cuts down on the post number dramatically It's hard to comment on snow chances since the slightest of shifts could make it either a lot more rain or a lot less QPF. Models are starting to converge on an impactful solution that is mostly concentrated over the DC area, with PHL dealing with a greater likelihood of low-level temp issues if the better precip rates don't make it far enough north. Until the run-to-run consistency is there, it's tough to really speculate about any of these details. The takeaway from the 12z suite is that odds are increasing but there's still a ways to go, so details can wait. The Mid-Atlanticers don't want him, either Agree with both of these...don't have much to add. Meanwhile, at work I am already getting questions on timing. Would be easier to pinpoint timing if we could pinpoint where it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is why I never post in this forum, the southern part of this forum needs to be merged with the Mid-Atlantic forum and the northern part with NYC Area. There are just not enough active posters around. Probably because we're 5 days away, energy isn't even onshore yet and still for our immediate area there is a ton of uncertainty (although the 12z gfs <3). Like famartin said - we're cool, collective cucumbers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask. Well... going into another subforum and making a post complaining about the whole forum is not going to win you friends or influence people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Agree with both of these...don't have much to add. Meanwhile, at work I am already getting questions on timing. Would be easier to pinpoint timing if we could pinpoint where it's going to snow. Haha yeah, this was my Facebook post a few hours ago: "Yeah there could be a big storm back east next week... or it could stay south... or not develop... or be more rain than snow... or... you get the idea." Which got 7 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I do find it interesting that this thread is a ghost town compared to the one in the dc forum...... I think many of us got screwed pretty bad this year so what's all the fuss until a day or two before the potential of a storm. When model runs occur there is more than enough information to keep anyone updated. Finally, no weenies who keep on babbling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Oh I might have to do something similar!! My family lives in Richmond, VA so I was thinking about sending a forecast that goes something like...one of us will get decent snow, just not sure who. Haha yeah, this was my Facebook post a few hours ago: "Yeah there could be a big storm back east next week... or it could stay south... or not develop... or be more rain than snow... or... you get the idea." Which got 7 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We need a banter thread for this storm because this is a good topic to discuss. You are one of my favorite posters and I would read this forum just to see your ideas. It may seem like i'm complaining about "everyone" but I just want things to change but maybe i'm being too forceful and harsh. However, during large events there is not enough real-time discussion and banter. Some people may not like that but I prefer a less strict environment. NYC Metro and Mid-Atlantic have great storm-mode environments with an ideal influx of information and culture, rather than the semi-consistent flow of obs and met-only posts that often predominate here. Thanks for the compliment I guess Tombo could get a banter thread started and move some posts over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Why are you here now, then? I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane. I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask. Hilarious that you think our subforum shouldn't exist because it's not filled with weenie posts every 5 seconds. And the reason why your posts get deleted is, you're a horrible poster. Possibly the only one to be hated in multiple subforums. And our mods here won't put up with your crap either. Sorry for the rant guys, just felt the need to defend our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ens anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ens anyone? Per Earthlight from NYC forum: "12z Euro ensembles take a sub 1000mb low off OBX just east-northeast. Looks like a decent amount of precipitation up this way as well. The operational falls south of the mean h5 trough." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Per Midlow in MA forum: so far hr 114 ens mean is dead on with the op over wilmington nc. by 126 the mean is a hair east of the op which had the low tucked up near the eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ens anyone? Stronger low, more amped compared to 12z GFS ensemble. This results in a better precip shield and better snow odds comparatively. It is, however, a bit south of the 00z Euro ensemble despite getting stronger closer to the Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow the HPC doesn't see much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Wow the HPC doesn't see much... That's uhhhhhhhhh very conservative given the latest model solutions/trends. Almost all the stuff I've looked at since 00z on the Euro and GFS are a lot better than that. Only the 00z GFS Op. supports that QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Decent discussion about the storm out of Mt. Holly... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GFS has gone back to the strong convergance suppressed look, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That's uhhhhhhhhh very conservative given the latest model solutions/trends. Almost all the stuff I've looked at since 00z on the Euro and GFS are a lot better than that. Only the 00z GFS Op. supports that QPF map. And add the 18z GFS Op... lol. #derp Waiting to see the ensemble trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the models dont phase the southern vort with that piece of northern energy that the 12z GFS had all you get is a bowling ball across the country and no reinforced cold air imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask.To respond to your deleted post, Philly and NYC already *were* a combined subforum for the first several months of AmWx's existence... that was a disaster.Merging with the MA subforum would also be a disaster. Instead of complaining, perhaps take a hint? Also, to reply to your OTHER deleted post (sensing a theme here?): if you wanted to start a banter thread, you were free to do so. NYC and MA have terrible reputations, and deservedly so. We don't need to be like them. Our subforum is perfectly fine as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There is a phase, it's just late on the GFS. But it's a full phse, unlike the 12z euro & GFS, which were partial phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 And add the 18z GFS Op... lol. #derp Waiting to see the ensemble trends. a lot better than the op.. gets .75-1 qpf from pa tpk south...then ac to dov to dca 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GFS ensemble comes in further north, more amplified compared to the 12z ensemble. 18z op run is an outlier (just in case you couldn't tell already ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GFS ensemble comes in further north, more amplified compared to the 12z ensemble. 18z op run is an outlier (just in case you couldn't tell already ). I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario.. The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out. At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out. not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol Ha ha I thought that was the case at PHL. DCA has a pitiful 0.4" as its biggest event this season (twice), so with this storm it may very well beat that in under 1/2 hour. Been a miserable year of mixing/misses at both locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 my thoughts on tonight's model runs. 1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z. 2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC) 3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF. We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out. Overall Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 my thoughts on tonight's model runs. 1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z. 2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC) 3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF. We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out. Overall Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course. Well you are 1 for 1 so far. 00Z GFS looking similar to 18Z. On Edit, its worse, no northern stream at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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