Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes they are associated with Accuweather, but WFMZ is the most accurate by far in the area. Ed always seems to be spot on with predictions. They are conservative, but accurate. What am I, an orphan? lol... I have been speaking with meteorologist Mark Shanaberger (WFMZ) behind the scenes, and despite the Accuweather affiliation, they are able to adjust the A/W forecast to their own liking. They are conservative on this one for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What am I, an orphan? lol... I have been speaking with meteorologist Mark Shanaberger (WFMZ) behind the scenes, and despite the Accuweather affiliation, they are able to adjust the A/W forecast to their own liking. They are conservative on this one for good reason. I noticed bobby, Ed was more himself tonight. I like Mark, ive talked to him a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The image I just posted was the 0Z NAM forecast the night before the New England Blizzard in early Feb. So no, I wouldn't buy it. Funny thing is the Euro wasn't all the less extreme either for that event, and it too busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Chester and Cecil get the watch (criteria 4" or more) WWUS41 KPHI 041951WSWPHIURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ251 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A TRACE OF ICE. ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN CHESTER COUNTY MAY HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS. I'm looking forward to the Obs thread with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv For the last 5 runs the ensembles have been wetter and the op has followed suit next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv How do MDT and HGR so on the ensembles if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How do MDT and HGR so on the ensembles if you don't mind me asking? 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv How do MDT and HGR so on the ensembles if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv And that is a classic CCB, im pretty sure that's mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How large a grain of salt should one generally take SREF plume charts with? (This one is for PHL) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130304&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.342098954462614&mLON=-74.43553603515625&mTYP=roadmap (I tried to submit this 20 minutes ago, but it was from a train and the internet connectivity was terrible, so I don't think it posted successfully.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ray, 18z GEFS focus even more on Philly...getting interesting eh?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z gefs bring 1.5 to Past phl now. And an inch to lv How do MDT and HGR so on the ensembles if you don't mind me asking? This is insane. Word of caution still has to be taken... very fine line between epic and epic fail here. But wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How large a grain of salt should one generally take SREF plume charts with? (This one is for PHL) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130304&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.342098954462614&mLON=-74.43553603515625&mTYP=roadmap (I tried to submit this 20 minutes ago, but it was from a train and the internet connectivity was terrible, so I don't think it posted successfully.) they are pretty good inside 24 hrs imho...also when you use them make sure to take out bottom 3 and top 3 which would skew the mean this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 guys, i don't mind local news stations tv maps in here...but steve d stuff and other maps put in the vendor thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Someone just showed me a map from abc 27 showing 12"+ for all of delaware??!??!? Anyone got info on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 guys, i don't mind local news stations tv maps in here...but steve d stuff and other maps put in the vendor thread. Tombo I know you usually play the moderator role and analysis, not so much your own thoughts... and myself and probably this entire board respects your insight, hobbyist or not. Curious to your own thoughts, and do you buy the higher QPF output of the GFS/GEFS (NAM is outrageous - not looking for a comment on that one) ... and to you, does the UL energy disrupting the block and confluence idea make sense to allow this to take this more northerly jog with LP and precip amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Tombo I know you usually play the moderator role and analysis, not so much your own thoughts... and myself and probably this entire board respects your insight, hobbyist or not. Curious to your own thoughts, and do you buy the higher QPF output of the GFS/GEFS (NAM is outrageous - not looking for a comment on that one) ... and to you, does the UL energy disrupting the block and confluence idea make sense to allow this to take this more northerly jog with LP and precip amounts? Imho, i don't think the ull disrupts the block and allows this to come north. It looks like a piece of the ull streams in and phases into the bowling bowl which gives it that north tug. Models are catching onto this with the gfs being the leader. Its a fickle setup as if one thing gets missed or if it phases sooner everything changes. Yea, i do believe it. I was against it yesterday, solely because the gfs was the only one showing it along with its ensembles. Today though, models are starting to catch onto the idea. We are still 36-48hrs out so things can stil shift around. In terms of qpf, yes i do buy the qpf amounts. This thing will be loaded, its crawling away from the coast once the low is captured by the h5 energy. Like HM stated, the issue may be when this thing cycles and where it does it. The gefs, with a lower resolution may not be picking up on it like the OP, which is why the OP has been pretty reluctant to uptick as fast in qpf. If that cycling occurs sooner to our sw, then yea those qpf numbers look solid to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It sounds like the Philly news crews are all over the map. I'm surprised, I thought after 18z that it'd be time to start sounding the alarms west of 95. This is a big fat beast, you can forget sun angle issues and ground temps, the usual March BS. The marginal BL is another story, but I think this one manufactures its own cold. We saw the GL s/w evolve out of the solution, suppression become in vogue, then this new piece of energy lobing down from New England to spread the precip shield further north. The only question at this point is can we trend towards a different scenario a 4th time in 36 hours? I think 4+ is a safe call north and west of Philly, I think the evening rush and nighttime could be the best snows of the winter for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Of the 1-1.5" liquid that falls, how much do we waste on rainfall across the coastal plain? Man there's a lot to think about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have any #'s for the euro ensembles? Heard they were N&W, just wasn't sure how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone have any #'s for the euro ensembles? Heard they were N&W, just wasn't sure how much. from what i heard i think they got 1 inch to phl, not sure on that though. I saw someone else say it was a mecs on the euro ens, again not sure how reliable that source is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Imho, i don't think the ull disrupts the block and allows this to come north. It looks like a piece of the ull streams in and phases into the bowling bowl which gives it that north tug. Models are catching onto this with the gfs being the leader. Its a fickle setup as if one thing gets missed or if it phases sooner everything changes. Yea, i do believe it. I was against it yesterday, solely because the gfs was the only one showing it along with its ensembles. Today though, models are starting to catch onto the idea. We are still 36-48hrs out so things can stil shift around. In terms of qpf, yes i do buy the qpf amounts. This thing will be loaded, its crawling away from the coast once the low is captured by the h5 energy. Like HM stated, the issue may be when this thing cycles and where it does it. The gefs, with a lower resolution may not be picking up on it like the OP, which is why the OP has been pretty reluctant to uptick as fast in qpf. If that cycling occurs sooner to our sw, then yea those qpf numbers look solid to me. I should also say the bl issues are real in my eyes. If we don't get the heavy rates during the day all that precip will probably be wasted in non accum snow or rain...the real deal may be later on in the aft into night when the ccb starts to crank if that does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Imho, i don't think the ull disrupts the block and allows this to come north. It looks like a piece of the ull streams in and phases into the bowling bowl which gives it that north tug. Models are catching onto this with the gfs being the leader. Its a fickle setup as if one thing gets missed or if it phases sooner everything changes. Yea, i do believe it. I was against it yesterday, solely because the gfs was the only one showing it along with its ensembles. Today though, models are starting to catch onto the idea. We are still 36-48hrs out so things can stil shift around. In terms of qpf, yes i do buy the qpf amounts. This thing will be loaded, its crawling away from the coast once the low is captured by the h5 energy. Like HM stated, the issue may be when this thing cycles and where it does it. The gefs, with a lower resolution may not be picking up on it like the OP, which is why the OP has been pretty reluctant to uptick as fast in qpf. If that cycling occurs sooner to our sw, then yea those qpf numbers look solid to me. Excellent... thank you. By the way, I looked at some soundings between MPO, ABE to PHL... and I have seen a lot of media outlets and the like talking about rain/mix in those areas during the day Wednesday. I don't think so... I think this is all snow, just a matter of how much sticks vs. falls and melts. I don't see rain even at PHL - it is cold enough aloft that it would suggest it could snow at 40 degrees, just not stick until the evening or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Of the 1-1.5" liquid that falls, how much do we waste on rainfall across the coastal plain? Man there's a lot to think about here. well you can't tell that on an ens mean...but the qpg on the op, about 60-70% is non sticking snow or rain for phl...they get the snow once that ccb gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Excellent... thank you. By the way, I looked at some soundings between MPO, ABE to PHL... and I have seen a lot of media outlets and the like talking about rain/mix in those areas during the day Wednesday. I don't think so... I think this is all snow, just a matter of how much sticks vs. falls and melts. I don't see rain even at PHL - it is cold enough aloft that it would suggest it could snow at 40 degrees, just not stick until the evening or later. Like i said up top, its going to come down to the rates. If we get light precip it will probably be rain in phl. Heavier rates may flip them over (im talking during the day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Excellent... thank you. By the way, I looked at some soundings between MPO, ABE to PHL... and I have seen a lot of media outlets and the like talking about rain/mix in those areas during the day Wednesday. I don't think so... I think this is all snow, just a matter of how much sticks vs. falls and melts. I don't see rain even at PHL - it is cold enough aloft that it would suggest it could snow at 40 degrees, just not stick until the evening or later. The Euro disagrees with you...a lot...on this during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Euro disagrees with you...a lot...on this during the day. do you have the euro ens qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The Euro disagrees with you...a lot...on this during the day. Euro is also the outlier at the moment... however I agree with the cautious optimism approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have any #'s for the euro ensembles? Heard they were N&W, just wasn't sure how much. DT claiming it is not north.......i will post link in vendor forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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